Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Odds: Reform Threat For SNP And Labour
UK betting sites believe the Scottish National Party and Labour are frontrunners to win the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election but won’t rule out a late charge from Reform UK.
The Scottish parliamentary seat is up for grabs on June 5 following the tragic death of MSP Christina McKelvie, who held the seat since its inception in 2011.
SNP candidate Katy Loudon is the favourite to win but Labour made ground when the seat was last up for grabs in 2021.
Labour’s Davy Russell is the close second-favourite and is hoping to join Labour’s recent resurgence north of the border.
However, both candidates will be keeping tabs on Ross Lambie, the Reform candidate whose odds have already come in over the past few weeks.
Voters head to the polls on June 5 and turnout is expected to be higher than the 60.9% four years ago.
Reform’s presence has pulled media attention to Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse – making this a more important seat than initially expected.
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse By-Election Latest Odds
Party | Odds | Probability |
SNP | 8/13 | 61.9% |
Scottish Labour | 6/4 | 40% |
Reform UK | 8/1 | 11.1% |
Conservatives | 25/1 | 3.8% |
Lib Dems | 66/1 | 1.5% |
Green Party | 100/1 | 1% |
The latest politics odds suggest Loudon should deliver a victory for the SNP. However, her implied probability of 61.9% is way higher than the party’s vote share (46.2%) in 2021 when voters were able to back McKelvie, a consistency candidate.
This is now an opportunity to vote for change, which is why Labour and Reform are eyeing up the seat.
For Labour, winning here would be a welcome victory after the hammering they took at May’s local elections in England and Wales.
Labour have, so far, not had to contend with Reform north of the border. Given the difficulties Sir Keir Starmer is facing with Nigel Farage’s party in Westminster, a win in Scotland would be a welcome reprieve.
But Reform aren’t going away and Farage has aspirations to conquer Scotland too.
Reform earned 7% of the Scottish vote in last year’s general election. That might not sound like much but it was a significant slice for a new party. Analysis suggests they benefited from anti-SNP votes, eating into what was previously Labour’s ground.
One of the reasons for this is Reform’s support for Brexit. Scotland hasn’t had a major party fly the flag for Brexit for some time.
The SNP are desperate to rejoin the single market, Scottish Labour are quiet about the whole thing, and Scottish Tories are very different from their Westminster counterparts.
Reform are able to offer Scottish voters something they can’t get anywhere else, which is why Farage is eyeing up a big sweep of seats in the 2026 Holyrood elections.
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse might come too soon for the party, which is why their odds have come in as far as 8/1 with political betting sites but no further.
Yet there’s every chance Reform candidates win seats across Scotland next summer.
As for this by-election, analysts will be looking closely at the result. Energy costs and healthcare are big issues in the constituency.
Labour now have a record to defend on a UK level, while the SNP have been in charge for more than a decade.
Voters are unlikely to back the Tory candidate, meaning Labour are considered the centre-right option to counteract the SNP’s left-leaning stance.
The door really is open to Reform, who beat Labour to second place in West Dunbartonshire this spring.
* Reminder: These are hypothetical odds provided by industry experts.
