College Football: What We Learned From Week 12

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College Football: What We Learned From Week 12
© USA Today

We learned that the Michigan Wolverines are a team to be reckoned with for the National Championship this season as they went to Columbus, Ohio and dominated the second half of their 45-23 over the Ohio State Buckeyes. 

 

No doubt that the Wolverines will be ranked second behind the reigning College Football National Champion Georgia Bulldogs, who ground their way to a 37-14 win over state rival Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs trailed 7-3 after the first quarter and failed to cover the spread as 32.5-point home favorites. So, the College Football Committee will narrow the gap between the Bulldogs and Wolverines, but the gap between these two teams and the third and fourth-ranked teams will be wider certainly.

Which Team is the Best Bet to Win the National Championship?

Georgia remains the current favorite in the futures betting markets priced as -155 moneyline favorites. Next in line is Michigan where FanDuel Sportsbook is currently offering the best price at +300. Then, Ohio State and USC are both priced at +1300 at BetMGM Sportsbook, followed by TCU at +1400. Alabama is on the outside looking in with less than a 1% chance of becoming a finalist in the CFB and are priced accordingly at +4000 at FanDuel. However, I can see Alabama ranked No. 5 when the CFP poll is released Tuesday Night because both of their losses were on the last play of the game while Ohio State will move to No. 6 given a horrid home loss this past week to Michigan. 

USC and TCU offer the best value and I have placed pizza-money-sized bets on both to win the National Championship. 

The Big Favorites Continue to Win

In week 12, favorites of 17.5 or more points went 8-1 SU (89%), but a money-losing 2-5-2 against the spread (29%) including an even 8-1 (89%) Over-Under record. Since 2017, road favorites of at least 17.5 points that are coming off an ATS loss of between 1 and 7.5 points have earned a 40-6 SU (87%) record, 28-18 ATS (61%), and 23-21-1 Over-Under (52%) record. No games are active in Week 14 action

Did the Ranked Teams Dominate in Week 12?

Well, not all as ranked teams playing at home in Week 12 went 9-5 SU, 5-7-2 ATS including a highly profitable 12-2 Over-Under. Over the past five weeks ranked teams playing at home went 37-20 SU (65%) and 30-24-3 ATS (56%) including a 31-25-1 (55%) Over-Under result. 

Are there Any Betting Alerts on Ranked Teams in Week 13?

For the season, home-ranked teams taking on a ranked opponent have gone 28-16 SU (64%), 25-18-1 ATS (58%), and 23-21 Over-Under record. Since 2017, home teams that were ranked higher in the polls than the ranked opponent have gone 87-20 SU (81%), 58-44-5 ATS (57%), and 43-64 (40%) Over-Under. 

This simple database search targets No. 19 Tulane, who are playing Nop. 22 Central Florida in the American Athletic Conference Championship game set to start at 4:00 ET, Saturday.

Food for the Betting Souls

The following betting algorithm is active on three teams in Week 13 action and has earned a 47-59 record (44%), 65-40-1 (62%) ATS, and a 47-57-2 (45%) Over-Under record. 

  • Bet on road dogs that are averaging 400 or more yards per game on the season
  • Our dog is coming off a terrible game in which they gained 3.85 or fewer yards per play

This betting algorithm makes the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers a preferred betting opportunity when they take on the Troy Trojans in the Sun Belt Championship, Saturday

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