Comprehensive Guide to Lay Betting Strategy
A lay bet is a wager that an outcome will not occur, essentially allowing a bettor to act as a bookmaker. This guide details various strategies to exploit odds discrepancies to maximize profits.
Note: Odds and currency references in this guide may reflect UK-based formats (e.g., fractional odds and GBP). Most global sportsbooks allow users to toggle between formats like decimal or American odds, and your local currency will apply at checkout.
Understanding Lay Betting
Lay betting fundamentally reverses the traditional role of a punter. Instead of betting on an outcome to happen, you are betting on an outcome not to happen. For instance, you could bet on a horse not to win a race or a football team not to win a match. This means your lay bet wins if a horse loses or a football team draws.
This method became widely accessible in the early 2000s with the introduction of betting exchanges, which rely on individuals betting against each other. These exchanges turned gambling on its head by allowing punters to act as bookmakers.
Calculating your Liability
This is the amount of money you will lose if your lay bet is unsuccessful. It represents the potential payout you must make to the person who placed the back bet if their selection wins.
Your liability directly reflects your potential risk. Your liability is calculated as the stake amount of the back bet multiplied by the odds you've offered, minus the backer's stake.
For example, if you lay a £10 back bet at odds of 3.52, your liability would be (£10 x 3.52) - £10 = £25.20. If you accept a £1000 stake from a backer at odds of 3.20, your liability is £2200 (£1000 multiplied by 3.2 minus the stake of £1000).
Is Lay Betting Legal?
Yes, lay betting is entirely legal. No gambling regulations are preventing lay betting in most jurisdictions.
However, you must use a betting exchange to participate. Therefore, lay betting is only available in jurisdictions where licensed betting exchanges are legal.
How Lay Betting Works with Betting Exchanges
Instead of betting against a bookmaker, you are matched with a "back" bettor, who believes the outcome will happen. If your lay bet wins, the back bettor pays your earnings; if your lay bet loses (meaning the outcome you bet against did happen), you pay their profits.
A key difference from traditional "back" betting, where you risk a stake, is that you set the odds for the event not happening when laying an outcome. Other bettors then have the option to accept those odds.
Since lay bettors act as bookmakers, betting exchanges don't earn profits from lost bets in the traditional sense. Instead, exchanges make money by taking a percentage of your winnings as a commission, with rates typically ranging between 2% and 10%.
Maximize your profits by finding a betting exchange with a low commission percentage.
How to Place a Lay Bet
- Visit your chosen betting exchange site.
- Create an account or log in.
- Browse the markets until you find a lay bet you want to place.
- Click on the odds to add the lay to your bet slip. Here, you can adjust the odds and your stake.
- Ensure you check your liability before confirming, as this is the amount you might have to pay if your bet loses.
- Once satisfied with the odds and liability, confirm the bet.
When You Should Lay a Bet vs. Back Bet
While backing is the simplest and most common method, lay betting can be highly effective strategically.
Lay betting is a good option when you feel the favourite will not win. By laying the favourite or any other selection, you can cheer on all other possible outcomes, potentially increasing your opportunities to profit. Laying an outcome with very low odds means you take on less risk, and if you win, you receive the backer's entire stake.
Long-term successful betting often involves eliminating risk, even if it means sacrificing some potential profit.
Lay Betting Strategies
Several advanced lay betting strategies aim to minimize risk or guarantee profit.
Arbitrage Betting
To use arbitrage, place a traditional "back" bet on an outcome with one bookmaker and a "lay" bet against that same outcome on a betting exchange. The goal is to profit from an imbalance in odds across different betting platforms and guarantee a profit regardless of the event's outcome.
While you can guarantee a profit if you execute this plan correctly, odds can shift quickly, meaning the imbalance could vanish before both trades are complete.
Curve Betting
This horse betting strategy draws from stock market trading principles and involves predicting and exploiting future price movements to create profit. The goal is to back both sides of an outcome and make a profit no matter what, but timing is everything.
Closely follow a horse's prices before a race. If the odds on a horse begin to shorten, and you expect them to shorten further, you place a back bet. As the race gets closer and more punters bet on the shortening odds, the lay odds will increase. Once the prices have drifted in your favor, you place a lay bet on the exchange.
In-Running Lays
In-running lays are placed once a race or game begins, so you must judge how odds will change throughout an event.
A back bet is on a horse to win. A lay bet on a horse is on any other horse in the race to win. Due to the many options in open fields, lay betting on horse racing can offer lower odds initially, but this can change in-play.
Accumulators
Pick two or more lay bets you want to combine and add them to your bet slip. Make the bets an accumulator or multiple on your slip and make your stake. Some bookmakers have these pre-built, so you only have to click to add them to your slip.
Note that your liability will be larger since you’re covering several markets.
Consolidation or Hedging
One of the fundamental advantages of lay betting is its ability to ensure profits on multiple bets or limit losses on wagers that are not going to plan. This is often done by laying a selection that you have previously backed.
This strategy, akin to an early cashout at a traditional sportsbook, can save your stakes, guarantee a small or large profit, or even neutralize your bet entirely, resulting in an equal financial return regardless of the outcome. Taking it upon yourself to lay bets against potential winnings invariably proves more profitable.
Examples of Lay Bets in Football & Horse Racing
- Football: In a 1X2 bet (win, draw, loss), if you lay Team A, you profit if Team A loses or the game ends in a draw. If you lay a tie, you profit if either team wins.
- Horse Racing: Place an early back bet on a horse likely to build an early lead. If the horse is still in the lead near the end of the race, its odds should have shortened. At this point, you place an in-running lay bet against the same horse. If the lay odds have drifted enough and you place your bet at the right time, you can profit regardless of which horse wins.
Expert Lay Betting Tips for Success
- Use Low-Commission Betting Exchanges: Choosing a bookmaker offering lower commission rates will increase your net profits.
- Go Beyond Popular Markets: While it's natural to bet on well-known leagues or events, popular markets may not always offer the best opportunities for profit with lay betting. Smaller markets, where fewer people have expert knowledge, often present chances to get better odds for your lay bets.
- Be Careful Before Betting and Understand Liability: Take your time before placing a bet, especially with a new site. Do not focus solely on how much you are staking; concentrate on your liability. Your liability must be lower than your potential profits from the back bet to guarantee a gain. Always fully understand what you are risking before confirming your bet.
- Develop a Solid Grasp of Betting Odds: Success hinges on understanding odds and the ability to track and predict potential odds movements.
- Gain Real Experience: Lay betting is advanced. This guide is a starting point, but consistent success will come from gaining practical experience.
Final Thoughts on Lay Betting
Lay betting offers powerful tools for punters, allowing them to act as bookmakers and bet against outcomes. It provides unique opportunities to change your odds, play for more significant profits, and even guarantee profits using strategies like arbitrage, curve betting, and in-running lays.
Lay betting can consolidate winnings or limit losses on existing bets, often providing better value than traditional cash-out options.
While it requires a solid understanding of odds and liability, lay betting is entirely legal in jurisdictions with licensed exchanges, making it a valuable addition to any bettor's repertoire.
