How to Bet on MLB: MLB Betting Strategy Guide

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How to Bet on MLB: MLB Betting Strategy Guide
Key Takeaways
  • Understand core MLB markets.
    Familiarize yourself with run lines and props to bet effectively and tailor your approach based on market dynamics.
  • Use stats and trends to your advantage.
    Dive into ERA, batting averages, win percentages, weather, and even umpire tendencies to make smarter predictions backed by data.
  • Don't count out underdogs.
    Underdogs coming off wins often perform above expectations. Comparing odds across sportsbooks and acting on early line movements helps uncover value and improve long-term profitability.

Baseball, often called the Great American Pastime, holds a special place in American sports betting. It's a reliable and constant sport, with more games played per season than any other.

This guide will delve into what makes baseball betting unique, why it's popular, and how you can master the ins and outs of hardball handicapping.

Note: MLB odds may appear in fractional (e.g., 50/1), decimal (51.00), or American (+5000) format depending on your region. Most betting sites allow users to choose their preferred format.

Popular MLB Betting Markets

Whether you're a long-time baseball fan or new to the sport, understanding the basic types of baseball bets is crucial, as spectating and betting involve different considerations.

Here’s a rundown of the most popular and widely available baseball betting markets:

Run Line

Run lines are baseball's equivalent of point spreads in sports like football or basketball, but they are always fixed at -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog. This is because most baseball games are decided by three runs or fewer.

Run lines offer breathing room when backing an underdog or a better payout when betting on a favorite.

Over/Under Runs

Also known as "totals," these wagers are on whether the combined total runs scored by both teams in a game will be higher or lower than a specific line set by the sportsbook. Unlike run lines, over/under lines are highly variable based on expected offensive output.

Lines can be set at an even number (allowing for a "push" if the total matches the line) or a half-run number (guaranteeing a winner and a loser). Lines typically range between 5 and 10 runs.

The total runs market is highly statistical and offers considerable profit potential. Compare batting and earned run averages to identify teams in the runs over/under market.

A key to unlocking value in the runs over/under market is identifying teams with a strong defensive record and a weak scoring record, or vice versa. This helps spot games that are likely exceptionally high-scoring or low-scoring. Once you've identified potential teams, compare their key statistics with those of their opponents.

Prop Bets

Given baseball's statistic-centric nature, there's a vast array of prop betting options. You can bet on individual pitchers or hitters to reach (or not reach) milestones like strikeouts, hits, earned runs, home runs, or runs scored. Team-wise, you can bet on total runs, home runs hit, or which team scores first. Game props include the popular NRFI/YRFI (No Run First Inning/Yes Run First Inning), whether the home team bats in the bottom of the ninth, or if the game will go to extra innings.

Other Baseball Bet Types

  • Moneyline: This is the simplest bet, where you predict the winner of a game. If your team wins, your bet wins; your wager is lost if they lose.
  • Parlays: Parlays combine multiple predicted results, known as "legs," into a single bet for higher payouts. All legs must hit for the parlay bet to cash.
  • Live Bets: Live betting options are available for almost all the aforementioned betting markets, with the key distinction being that these bets are placed while the game is actively in progress.
  • Futures: You can place futures bets on teams to win their division, league, or the World Series.

MLB Betting Strategies

Find Value By Odds Shopping

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Back Underdogs

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Monitor Weather Reports

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Watch Early Lines Movement

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Compare Runs For & Against

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Don’t Overvalue Favorites

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Stats to Consider When Betting on the MLB

Since the advent of the "Moneyball" trend, statistics have been central to the sport.

For gamblers, these numbers become powerful tools for predicting performance. In the last decade, baseball has seen a statistical revolution with sabermetrics and advanced statistical analysis becoming prevalent. You can access anything from a hitter's average exit velocity to a pitcher's expected ERA.

Here are some of the top statistics to consider when betting on baseball:

  1. Win Percentages

    Win Percentages

    Win percentages underscore the difficulty of picking a winner in baseball. Most teams typically win 46% to 57% of their games, highlighting the sport's unpredictability.

  2. ERA

    ERA

    Earned Run Average is the average number of runs a team's pitchers allow per nine innings. ERA is key to “runs scored” and “run line” markets, where identifying a team's defensive strength can help predict total runs scored and winning margins.

  3. Batting Average

    Batting Average

    This is the average number of hits a team's batters record, and it helps estimate a game's total score. But, high batting averages don’t necessarily translate to wins. You should check scores to ensure these hits translate into runs.

  4. Umpire Trends

    Umpire Trends

    Look into online data regarding umpire tendencies in calling balls and strikes. A larger strike zone favors pitchers and leads to lower-scoring games, while a tighter strike zone can result in more walks, hits, runs, and overall offensive output.

    Data suggests that umpire tendencies can impact run-scoring likelihood, making this knowledge especially helpful for over/under bettors.

Alternatives to MLB Betting

With 30 teams playing 162 games across the United States and Canada, Major League Baseball is the world's largest and most popular baseball league. However, there are other baseball leagues to bet on.

Many sportsbooks also offer markets on international leagues, such as Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization. However, these leagues typically have more limited betting markets than MLB.

There are over 300 NCAA Division I baseball teams; you can generally bet on most games. The postseason is a double-elimination tournament known as the College World Series.

Betting on college baseball tends to be more volatile due to less available data, less consistent field conditions, and potentially higher variability in player skill levels. Check your region’s specific rules about betting on college sports.

Final Thoughts on MLB Betting

Baseball’s richness provides entertaining betting markets, and the long baseball season offers more games to bet on than hockey, basketball, football, or soccer. The sport’s emphasis on statistics means there is a wealth of data to collect to help inform your bets.

If you can place bets legally, it is essential to gamble responsibly. This means establishing a predefined bankroll, avoiding compulsive wagering, and limiting the time and mental energy you dedicate to recreational betting.

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