How to Bet on Baseball: Tips & Strategies for Baseball Betting
Sometimes called the Great American Pastime, baseball has long held a special spot in American and sports betting culture. It’s reliable and constant, with more games played per season than any other sport. It’s all about statistics, with almost countless counting stats and betting markets. And it’s full of intriguing storylines and trends that can change how games are played—and bet.
Let’s take a look at what makes baseball betting unique, why it’s so popular, and how you can learn the ins and outs of hardball handicapping.
Understanding Baseball Betting Odds
Reading the Odds: American, Decimal & Fractional
We’ll go into greater detail below, but any baseball bettor needs to have a working knowledge of how to read the odds posted by a sportsbook. There are commonly three ways to present the odds: American, Decimal, and Fractional.
We’ll briefly describe each and then provide a hypothetical baseball example showing the same odds in each format.
- American odds are winnings-focused, with +100 representing an even money payout on your stake. The more negative the number, the shorter the odds, and the lower your payout. The higher the number, the longer the odds are, and the higher the payout.
- Decimal odds are based on your payout, with the equation being: Money Risked x Decimal Odds = Winning Payout (Including Stake and Winnings). They’re a quick way to see what multiple of your bet you could potentially have coming back to you with a victory.
- Fractional odds are always given with two numbers, one divided by the other (typically stated as 2 to 1 or 5 to 7, for instance). These are commonly used in horse betting but are also used for other sports in some locales.
The same bets in each format
Example 1: A $10 moneyline bet on the favored Red Sox to win $5
- American: -200
- Decimal: 1.5
- Fractional: 1 to 2
Example 2: A $10 moneyline bet on the underdog Pirates to win $25
- American: +250
- Decimal: 3.5
- Fractional: 5 to 2
Popular Baseball Betting Markets: Everything You Need to Know
Whether you’re a longtime baseball fan or just getting into the sport, spectating and betting are different animals, so reviewing the basics for some of the most popular types of baseball bets can be helpful. Use the following as a beginner guide, a quick refresher course, or anything in between.
So, without further ado, let’s “play ball!” Here’s a rundown of the most popular (and most widely available) baseball betting markets, along with some tips, pointers, and things to look out for when placing wagers.
Check out the examples to become more familiar with the types of bets available in a typical sportsbook using American odds.
Moneyline Betting
Moneyline bets are just about predicting the winner of a game. If your team wins, your bet cashes. If your team loses, your wager is lost. And while this is sports betting at perhaps its most basic, it’s also an extremely fun and exciting way to bet on baseball.
You don’t need to worry about pitch counts, score differential, or any player’s stat line. It’s all about the Ws and Ls.
Because there’s no handicapping involved, you can see different scenarios for odds and payouts based on the relative strength of the teams playing. Here are a couple of common betting situations:
Example 1: Fairly Evenly Matched Teams
Yankees at Red Sox:
- Red Sox moneyline at +105, a $10 bet pays $10.50 in winnings if Red Sox win
- Yankees moneyline at -125, a $10 bet pays $8 in winnings if Yankees win
Example 2: Clear Favorite & Underdog
White Sox at Dodgers:
- Dodgers moneyline at -250, a $10 bet pays $4 in winnings if Dodgers win
- White Sox moneyline at +200, a $10 bet pays $20 in winnings if White Sox win
Run Line Betting
Run lines are most similar to what you’d call point spreads in sports like football or basketball. But while point spreads can climb into the double digits in those sports to account for a mismatch in team quality, run lines are always fixed at -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog. (This makes sense since the majority of games are decided by 3 runs or less.)
So what exactly does that mean? It’s simpler than you might think. Instead of bets settling based on which team won and which team lost, the favorite will need to win by 2 runs or more (over 1.5) for bets on them to win. Conversely, the underdog gets a little cushion, and if they win or lose by 1 (under 1.5), bets on them will cash.
Run lines are a great choice if you want a little breathing room when you’re backing a ‘dog or a shot at a better payout for betting the favorite.
Here, again, are a couple of common scenarios:
Example 1: Fairly Evenly Matched Teams
Yankees at Dodgers:
- Dodgers -1.5 run line at +160, a $10 bet pays $16 in winnings if Dodgers win by 2 or more
- Yankees +1.5 run line at -175, a $10 bet pays $5.71 in winnings if Yankees win or lose by 1
Note: Even though these two teams are matched up well, one team has to be the run-line favorite, but that team will get fairly significant positive odds. On the other side of the equation, the team getting 1.5 runs will have fairly significant negative odds (and a lower payout).
Example 2: Clear Favorite & Underdog
Nationals at Padres:
- Padres -1.5 run line at -125, a $10 bet pays $8 in winnings if Padres win by 2 or more
- Nationals +1.5 run line at -110, a $10 bet pays $9.09 in winnings if Nationals win or lose by 1
Over/Under Betting
Over/under bets, also known as “totals,” are wagers on whether the total amount of runs scored by both teams in a game will be higher or lower than the line provided by the sportsbook. Unlike run lines, over/under lines are highly variable, depending on the expected offensive output. You’ll also see plenty of these lines set at an even number, providing the possibility of pushes, and many others set at a half-run number, meaning there will always be a winning and losing side.
The line will always be between 5 and 10 runs, though there are exceptions based on matchups, roster situations, and other factors.
Here are a couple of examples of what you might find if you’re looking to place an over/under bet.
Example 1: Low-Scoring Game Expected
Brewers at Rays:
- Over 6.5 runs set at -110, a $10 bet pays $9.09 in winnings if the combined runs by both teams are 7 or more (often written as o6.5 or O6.5)
- Under 6.5 runs set at -115, a $10 bet pays $8.70 if the combined runs by both teams are 6 runs or less (often written as u6.5 or U6.5)
Example 2: High-Scoring Game Expected
Royals at Orioles:
- Over 9 runs set at -125, a $10 bet pays $8 in winnings if the combined runs by both teams is 10 or more (often written as o9 or O9)
- Under 9 runs set at +100, a $10 bet pays $10 if the combined runs by both teams are 8 runs or less (often written as u8 or U8)
- If the combined run total is exactly 9, then bets on both the over and under will be settled as a push
Prop Bets
All three of the betting markets above are directly related to the outcome and total score of the game. Proposition bets (more commonly referred to as prop bets) are a bit different, and not necessarily related to winning or losing—or even scoring. These bets are on whether a specific outcome within a game will happen, usually for a player or team to reach a certain statistical threshold.
As you might expect, a statistic-centric sport like baseball is absolutely full of prop betting options. You can bet on individual pitchers or hitters to reach (or fail to reach) many different milestones: strikeouts, hits, earned runs, home runs, runs scored, and much more. Teamwise, you can bet on runs scored, home runs hit, or which team will score first.
In terms of game props, you can bet the popular NRFI/YRFI (No Run First Inning/Yes Run First Inning) market if the home team will bat in the bottom of the ninth or even if the game will go to extra innings. Long story short, lots of stats mean lots of props!
Parlay Betting
Parlays are bets that combine more than one predicted result (known as legs) for higher payouts. The catch (if you want to call it that) is that all legs need to hit for the bet to cash. You can combine multiple bet types (moneylines, spreads, over/unders, props) over many different games to make the odds longer and boost your potential payout. You can also select multiple props from the same game, known as a same-game parlay or SGP.
Very frequently, you’ll see sportsbook promos for multi-leg parlays and SGPs, so it can be good to get a feel for what you want to look for and how you like to construct these types of bets.
Live Betting
Live betting (also known as in-game betting) options will usually be available for almost all of the betting markets described above, with only one major difference…these are all bets placed while the game is in progress. For baseball games, live bets are typically available from the first pitch until the last out is recorded, though many sportsbooks do start limiting the bet types available around the 8th inning.
Note that you can place live parlay bets or SGPs, where one or more of the legs is on a game that’s underway. In recent years, live bets have gotten increasingly more specific, where you can now bet on the outcome of a specific inning, at-bat, or even pitch! This trend is known as micro betting, and it’s available at most major online sportsbooks.
Baseball Betting Tips & Strategies
Now that you’ve understood some basic lingo and bet types, let’s go deeper. Here are some simple tips and strategies to boost the value of your baseball wagers.
Value Betting
Value betting is a broad term that means looking for an edge wherever you can, big or small. You can go about this in several ways. Still, many people will compare odds across different books (known as odds shopping), try to identify team or player trends, or even subscribe to services that seek to identify bets with high expected value.
A good example of value betting is taking a line that’s listed at +100 on one sportsbook but listed at -110 or shorter on every other book you check.
Betting Underdogs
Related to value betting, sometimes you’ll find that the best bang for your buck comes in identifying underdogs that you think have a better chance of winning than their posted odds might imply.
For example, if a moneyline for a big underdog team seems off, it might provide more value than a moneyline for a big favorite like the World Series-winning Dodgers. If you find a line at +220 that you feel should be much closer to pick ‘em, you’ll get more value out of that than a mispriced line of -1500 instead of -2000.
Of course, recklessly betting on big-value underdogs can quickly dry up your bankroll. It’s always important to make smart, well-informed MLB picks with stakes that fit into your sports betting budget.
Umpire Trends
This may be a level deeper than most recreational bettors want to go, but there is actually plenty of widely available data online regarding umpire tendencies in calling balls and strikes. Clearly, a bigger strike zone will favor pitchers and lead to lower scoring, while a tighter strike zone can lead to more walks, hits, runs, and overall offensive output.
In fact, there’s data showing that umpire tendencies can have a noticeable impact on run-scoring likelihood.
As such, it can be helpful, particularly for over/under bettors, to know how an umpire will likely call a game they’re putting action on.
Early Lines & Line Movement
You may be familiar with the term “closing line value,” but if you’re not, it’s related to the difference in the pregame odds for a given bet compared to where the odds closed. This difference, positive or negative, is the closing line value.
When you’re betting on baseball or any other sport, you want to have a very positive closing line value. You can accomplish this by following one or more teams, looking up the weather forecast, or researching a team’s injury status or other trends.
If you place a bet before a sportsbook has had a chance to react to a change in any of those factors, you can get very solid value from your wager. You’ll see that baseball betting odds change and fluctuate from the time they’re posted right up until the first pitch.
Advanced Baseball Betting Strategies & Insights
In the last decade or so, there’s been something of a statistical revolution in baseball, particularly at the professional level. You can get data on a hitter’s average exit velocity or their swing-and-miss rate. You can track how hard a pitcher is throwing the ball through the course of a season or even find stats that measure what his expected earned run average would be, taking out batted-ball luck.
Sabermetrics and advanced statistical analysis are here to stay in baseball, and it’s up to you how in-depth you want to get in terms of using that kind of data in researching bets. The breadth and volume of information can get a little overwhelming, so we’d recommend that if you do want to do that type of research, you identify a few key stats that you like as predictors. Once you feel comfortable with those, you can branch out even further.
Common Mistakes to Avoid when Betting on Baseball
With so many betting markets and so much data floating around, you may find yourself in the weeds a bit and potentially making some classic baseball betting mistakes. Here are a few of the most common ones:
- Overvaluing Favorites: This is an easy mistake to make since favorites and underdogs generally have a wider talent and success gap in other sports. It’s important to remember that in baseball, a very good team might win 6 out of 10 games, and a very bad team still wins 4 out of 10 games.
- Ignoring the Weather: With so much data and so many statistics, you might overlook a very basic variable like the weather. The temperature and chance of rain can greatly affect baseball games. For example, you may want to steer clear of starting pitching prop overs if there’s a high chance a game could have a lengthy delay that takes starters out of the game.
- Misreading Odds/Placing the Wrong Bets: You will often need to make a few selections to get to the wager or prop bet you want for a game, and it’s important to double-check your betslip before you place your bet. Some sportsbooks will let you cash out a bet for the full amount when you notice a mistake, but others are less forgiving.
Types of Baseball to Bet on
Major League Baseball (MLB)
Major League Baseball is the biggest, most popular league in the world. With 29 teams in the U.S. and 1 in Canada, the league is split evenly into the American League and National League. Teams play out a 162-game schedule, mostly against teams in their respective league, though interleague play does add a little variety to the proceedings. The season culminates with 12 teams making the playoffs, which last for 4 rounds: the Wild Card Round, Divisional Round, and League Championship Series played within each league, and the World Series, between the AL and NL winner.
In addition to all of the betting options described above, you can place futures bets on teams to win their division, league, or the World Series. And you can, of course, bet on games in any playoff round at MLB betting sites, just as you would during the regular season.
College Baseball Betting
There are over 300 NCAA Division 1 baseball teams, and barring specific state regulations, you can bet on games played by most of them. The postseason involves a double-elimination tournament called the College World Series. Generally speaking, betting on college baseball is a bit more volatile, given there’s less data available, field conditions are less consistent, and there may be higher variability in player skill levels.
It’s important to note that some states prohibit wagering on college sports or, in some cases, in-state college games. Specific bans on college player props may also be in place. Even if no restrictions exist, you will notice fewer betting markets for college games than for MLB games.
Foreign Baseball Leagues (NPB, KBO, Others)
It might be the Great American Pastime, but the truth of the matter is that baseball has truly become an international sport. One look at the sport’s biggest star, Japanese 2-way player Shohei Ohtani, should tell you that the game has spread far beyond the U.S.
Many sportsbooks allow you to bet on international leagues and games, albeit with a more limited variety of betting markets.
Where Can I Start Betting on Baseball?
There are a lot of very user-friendly sportsbooks where you can bet on baseball. DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, ESPN BET, and Fanatics all have simple navigation, a good-to-great variety of betting markets, solid welcome offers, and fairly frequent baseball bonus offers.
How to Ensure Legal, Safe & Responsible Baseball Betting
Different states have different laws around sports betting, so before you start betting on baseball, you should check out our guide to legal sports betting states. You’ll find a breakdown of not only whether sports betting is legal or not in your state but also any additional regulations around online betting or betting on college games.
If you are able to legally place bets in your location, it’s very important to gamble responsibly. This means establishing a set bankroll, not placing wagers compulsively, and limiting the time and mental energy you devote to recreational betting.
For a more comprehensive description of what responsible play looks like, check out our Responsible Gambling page. The page also includes information on what problem behaviors to look for and how to seek help if you think you or someone you know is having trouble staying in control.
Final Thoughts on Baseball Betting
As we enter the late innings for this article, we hope you’ve learned a thing or two about how to bet on baseball, along with some baseball betting strategies and tips. Maybe more than any other sport, baseball offers an incredible amount of stats, outcomes, and game situations you can bet on. This makes for some fun and entertaining betting markets, along with interesting parlay and SGP options.
Beyond that, the wealth of data behind the sport gives you the chance to dig as deep as you want on research while still allowing you to place wagers based on feel and the eye test, too. Plus, the baseball season (and the playoffs) give you more games to bet on than hockey, basketball, football, soccer, or any other sport. The ups and downs of a season and a run to the World Series can be captivating on their own, and having a little action on a futures bet or a specific game makes one of America’s oldest and most popular sports that much more entertaining.
Check out our top betting apps, try out some of the strategies and pointers above, and play responsibly. Don’t forget to check back here for more baseball betting coverage and insights.
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