Catena Media Drops 2026 Growth Target After 29% Q3 Revenue Fall
Catena Media has told the market it will miss its 2026 growth target after a weak third quarter.
In a preliminary results release issued on October 16, 2026, the Nasdaq Stockholm-listed affiliate reported Q3 revenue of €8.3 million, down 29% from €11.6 million a year earlier.
It also flagged a non-cash impairment charge of €30 million to €35 million.
Catena said it no longer expects to reach its target of double-digit organic growth in group revenue and adjusted EBITDA in 2026. The figures are preliminary and unaudited.
The Numbers
Revenue for the first nine months was €30.1 million, against €31.0 million in the same period of 2025.
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was €0.7 million, down from €2.9 million, and that figure includes a €0.7 million reversal of accruals made earlier in the year for the 2026 employee bonus programme.
Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months was €4.6 million, compared with €5.2 million.
The impairment is a charge on intangible assets, recognised under IAS 36, and it does not involve cash leaving the business.
Why Catena Says Q3 Fell
The company pointed to several pressures. It said generative search continues to change how people find online casinos, which reduces new traffic across the affiliate industry.
Catena's own traditional search rankings declined, which it attributed to both AI-assisted personalised search patterns and search engines continuing to elevate lower-relevancy content.
Some operators also cut marketing budgets during the usual summer slowdown.
Because Catena wins more than 90% of new customers under cost-per-acquisition deals, it says it has little recurring revenue to cushion the squeeze.
Chief executive Manuel Stan described the quarter as weak and said the effects of the shift in search show up immediately for a predominantly CPA-based business.
The Response: TraffiqX And New Verticals
Catena says the quarter reinforces the direction it set out in Q2: reduce dependence on search by diversifying revenue.
It announced its newly named TraffiqX project, new verticals such as prediction markets, and an investment in customer loyalty programmes.
TraffiqX is a new platform that Catena plans to launch in the first quarter of 2027.
Prediction markets are also facing regulatory pressure in several countries, as our report on the global squeeze on Polymarket and Kalshi shows.
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What To Watch
Catena will publish its full interim report for Q3 2026 on November 10 at 17:35 CET, followed by a webcast at 18:00 CET.
That report will confirm the final figures and the size of the impairment.
The group, which is Malta-headquartered, describes itself as a lead generator for online casinos and sports betting sites and has more than 150 employees.
