Cheltenham 2025: Supreme Novices' Hurdle Race Trends
The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is the curtain raiser at the Cheltenham Festival which attracts some of the most exciting young prospects in the National Hunt sphere.
Over the years, stats have emerged to help punters narrow down the field and make it easier to pick a winner with betting sites.
In this article, we look at the top five Supreme Novices’ Hurdle trends you should not ignore when making your selections.
Recent Win A Big Positive
A strong performance leading up to the Festival has proved to be a positive indicator for the week's opening race.
Ten of the last 12 winners had secured a victory in their most recent race before competing in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Additionally, these winners typically raced within the preceding two months of Cheltenham, highlighting the benefit of recent competitive action.
Mullins And Henderson Dominance
Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have impressive records in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in the last decade or so.
The pair have won a combined eight of the last 11 renewals, with Mullins winning five and Henderson claiming three. The latter's most recent victory came in 2022 with this year's Champion Hurdle favourite with betting apps Constitution Hill.
Although other stables have landed the opener in recent years, it has been worth keeping Mullins and Henderson horses on your side.
Class To The Fore
In the past 12 renewals of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, 10 of the 12 winners had a pre-race rating of 148 or higher, highlighting the importance of proven class at the top level.
This trend suggests that horses rated below this figure often struggle to get into the mix.
So, although it may be tempting to back an outsider in the Supreme, history shows that it’s usually worth concentrating on the top of the horse racing betting sites market here.
Focus On The Five Or Six-Year-Olds
Historically, the race has favoured younger horses, as records show that 11 of the last 12 winners were either five or six years old.
Appreciate It bolted up in the race as a seven-year-old in 2021 and Hors La Loi III was the most recent four-year-old to win the Supreme in 1999.
This trend suggests a significant advantage for horses within the five to six-year-old age bracket.
Favourites Can Be Beaten
Kopek Des Bordes heads the market for this year‘s Supreme as he is currently priced at 4/5 with bookmakers.
His chances look obvious, and he is also trained by Mullins, who has won the race seven times with top-class horses such as Vautour and Douvan.
The jolly is sure to be popular in the festival opener, but keep in mind that only four of the last 20 favourites have won the Supreme, so it pays to look past the obvious here.
