Rhys Williams' Daily Horse Racing Tips: 5 Selections For New Year's Day
The Panel are delighted to have Rhys Williams as part of our team of racing tipsters.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
His profit and loss stands at -1.15 points from 58 points staked, with returns of 56.85 points - thanks to his 100/1 shot finishing third on Monday.
Here are Rhys' tips for New Year's Day, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites.
12:15 Cheltenham: Handin Manypockets - 0.5pt Win @ 50/1
The triple-figure prices may have gone about Handin Manypockets, but I think he’s still overpriced in the opening race at Cheltenham on his rules debut.
He made a fairly promising start to his career in a maiden point at Rathcannon where he looked a bit green.
After jumping three out, he made a move up the inside to join the leading pair, but then got left behind by them approaching the home straight without being asked for an effort.
He rallied to close back up on them at two out before looking green and running around between the last two fences.
He could never quite get back on terms with them, but kept on well enough to not be beaten far into third.
Handin Manypockets will hopefully be mentally sharper for that experience and can take a step forward from that performance today.
I have a bit of a doubt over whether he wants this trip, but I think he looks overpriced given the ability he showed that day in what isn’t a strong race for one of its type at this track.
Any 33/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 12:15 Cheltenham - Handin Manypockets - 0.5pt Win
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12:50 Cheltenham: Eagle Fang - 1pt Win @ 5/1
Eagle Fang made a winning chasing debut at Thurles and I think the market is underestimating his chance of making it two from two in a shockingly big field for one of those ‘chasing excellence’ races.
He made a move up the inside towards the end of the back straight that day to put himself in contention for the lead and a slick jump at three out took him into outright possession of that position.
He was challenged once again by Kurasso Blue turning into the home straight but he always looked to be holding that rival in the straight, with another slick jump at the last helping his cause.
That was a good quality contest for Eagle Fang’s chasing debut and I was impressed by the manner of the victory.
This looks to be a situation where the connections mean that he’s being overlooked somewhat in the market as I think the level of that performance is as good as any other has achieved over fences so far.
It may be that they are open to improvement and Eagle Fang is a touch on the small side and doesn’t have much margin for error with his jumping style, but I think he should be closer to the favourite in the market and any 7/2 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 12:50 Cheltenham - Eagle Fang - 1pt Win
Odds correct at time of publish.
14:00 Cheltenham: Moon d'Orange - 0.5pts Win @ 12/1
Moon d’Orange finished well beaten in the Coral Gold Cup last time, but he didn’t run as badly as the margin beaten suggests and I think he can run well over a course and distance where he’s had success in the past.
He was always wide and didn’t see out the trip at Newbury last time and I think a big field doesn’t suit him.
This sort of field size is more in his favour as is the likely strong pace given his late closing style.
He came with a late charge when winning over C&D in January last year and ran well again at the April meeting when fourth behind Riskintheground off a 4lb higher mark than he races off today.
Moon d’Orange’s jumping can be an issue and it might be that the impact of the headgear is starting to wear off but I think he’s a bit overpriced and any double-figure prices appeal.
Rhys' Selection 3: 14:00 Cheltenham - Moon d'Orange - 0.5pts Win
Odds correct at time of publish.
15:40 Cheltenham: Mariole - 0.5pts Win @ 15/2
There are some interesting differences in prices between horses who finished close together on debut in this junior bumper, but it’s a couple of horses who have only run in France so far who appeal at the current prices.
Mariole made his debut in an AQPS flat race at Lignieres in April and ran well in defeat.
The race was extremely slowly run and he was a shade keen at times in behind the leaders.
Angled out turning out of the back straight, he easily moved to the front before Misam rallied to his inside and that rival was always just holding him in the home straight.
I’m not sure the walk and sprint nature of that race ideally suited Mariole and he has the potential to take a step forward for a more truly run race.
He also has had the benefit of gaining an earlier education in France so he might be mentally sharper than his rivals and that could prove a valuable edge in a race of this nature.
Any 6/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 4: 15:40 Cheltenham - Mariole - 0.5pts Win
Odds correct at time of publish.
15:40 Cheltenham: Marvelous Dragones - 0.5pts Win @ 40/1
The other horse of interest in still trained in France by Amy Murphy and looks a big price given the promise she showed in an AQPS flat race towards the end of last year.
Marvelous Dragones didn’t look suited by the test on her debut in a Grade 3 contest at Nantes and finished well beaten, but she stepped forward considerably from that next time when making most of the running at Angers until Malissa Mans caught her late on.
That rival had shown good form in such contests prior to that and had far more experience than Marvelous Dragones, so it was a good effort by the runner-up.
I don’t think she was suited by the ground when finishing third at Durtal last time and might have been away from the best of it when racing towards the middle in the home straight.
I think the better ground today is in her favour and it could be that the reapplication of a tongue tie will also help her cause.
It may be that having four runs in a fairly short space of time will prove too much for her, particularly with the travelling added in, but I think the market is overlooking her potential and any 20/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 5: 15:40 Cheltenham - Mariole - 0.5pts Win
Odds correct at time of publish.
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