German Election Odds: Merz Tipped For Chancellor As Scholz Prepares For Exit
Betting sites expect Friedrich Merz to become the next chancellor of Germany after February’s federal election, with SDP leader Olaf Scholz set to lose his job.
Germans head to the polls on February 23 for a crucial national election that will almost certainly lead to a change in government after four years of social democratic rule.
Scholz called the snap election following the collapse of his coalition government. The chancellor’s party has been trailing in the polls for more than two years and bringing the vote forward is seen as a damage-limitation exercise.
Indeed, the polls have gone from bad to worse for the SDP since Scholz’s announcement and the Christian democrats are now on course to return to power.
Merz’s CDU/CSU union is soaring in the polls, while even the surging right-wing party AfP have felt a dip in recent weeks.
It means politics betting sites have all-but handed the CDU/CSU victory in this election, with punters instead looking at other markets to find betting value.
German Election - Most Seats Odds
Party | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
CDU/CSU | 1/20 | |
AfD | 10/1 | |
SPD | 66/1 | |
Green | 100/1 | |
BSW | 200/1 | |
FDP | 250/1 | |
Left | 250/1 |
German Election Betting Latest
The latest German election odds suggest the CDU/CSU will stroll to victory this spring.
The state of the economy – the biggest in Europe – and immigration are top of the agenda. Green issues have taken a back seat.
The odds suggest Merz will become the next chancellor, which isn’t a surprise. His main selling point is his pro-business stance that many voters hope will reignite the economy.
He’s pledged to cut taxes, increase border security, and make “a Germany we can be proud of again”.
Merz hasn’t had it all his way. He’s already faced criticism for flirting with the right-wing AfD over immigration rules, while many voters want a harsher stance on immigration. They’re not fans of Alice Weidel’s party.
The AfD are 10/1 with Betfred to win the most seats in the Bundestag. Those odds have widened from 8/1 after a recent dip in the polls.
A series of terror attacks in Germany has focused the conversation on immigration, but there is a feeling the AfD has reached a watermark.
As for the SDP, they’re on course for a brutal defeat. Their odds at Ladbrokes to win the most seats at this election have widened to 66/1.
Scholz has lost credibility after two years without economic growth. It’s possible they end up supporting the CDU/CSU to shut out AfD.
Other German Election Odds
Bettors aren’t seeing much value in betting on the German election result, as the CDU/CSU will almost certainly win. However, bookmakers have posted a number of other markets that might offer a little more value.
The big one is betting on which party will win the second-most seats after the union.
William Hill have AfD at 1/20 to win the second-most seats, while the SDP is out at 20/1.
The AfD is currently polling at 21%, with Scholz’s party at 16%. The bookies seem strangely confident that the AfD will beat the SDP.
Indeed, some punters are eyeing this market and wondering if the SDP can sneak ahead of AfD come results day.
The AfD has grown its supporter base in a relatively short space of time but traditional voters who swing either left or right still form the bulk of Germany’s voting population.
This, coupled with Germany’s polling system, means voters could lend their votes back to the SDP to keep the AfD out.
There’s also some value in looking at the AfD vote share odds. Ladbrokes price a 20-25% vote share at 8/15 (65.2% probability) but there is movement in the 15-20% band (7/4).
Those odds carry a 36.4% probability but might prove correct, especially with the AfD’s poll numbers dropping in the past fortnight.
Who Will Win The German Election?
UK bookmakers think the German election is pretty much a done deal. Merz will be the next chancellor and lead the CDU/CSU to the most seats.
It’s unlikely he will get close to the 311 seats Angela Merkel secured as chancellor back in 2013.
However, it’s certainly likely that he will surpass the 206 seats Scholz’s SPD won in 2021.
Merz probably won’t land a majority, so he’ll need backing from another party to govern.
It was assumed that support would come from Alice Weidel’s AfD. However, Merz has endured so much criticism from his potential dealings with the right-wing party that the SDP might come into play instead.
The SDP wouldn’t have to win the second-most votes in the Bundestag to support the CDU/CSU.
In fact, it could be a route for a much smaller parliamentary party to remain relevant.
A CDU/CSU + SDP coalition might be more favourable than a CDU/CSU + AfD party, which would likely swing Germany far to the right.
The first option keeps the country centre-right, which is where Merz wants it.
There is no chance of the CDU/CSU teaming up with the Greens or the left-wing populists BSW.
CSU leader Markus Soder has completely ruled out a coalition with the Greens, and environmental issues have been all but wiped from the campaign discourse over the past few weeks.
Make no mistake, Merz will be Germany’s next chancellor.
Whether he can rule alone or in an uneasy coalition is what the bookies – and punters – are trying to figure out.
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