How Donald Trump’s Betting Odds Fare in Six Key Red States
Donald Trump is more likely to win all six of the most important Red states in the 2020 US election than none at all – political betting data suggests.
The likes of Texas, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida have proved key battleground states during the election campaign, with each one voting for Trump back in 2016.
President Trump has ramped up his campaigning against Democrat Joe Biden in what has been a fiercely contested lead-up to the November 3 election.
Biden is leading in the polls by a margin of around 10 points, yet the election could well rest in a handful of swing states that carry hefty voting sway in the electoral college.
Trump is pushing hard to ensure some key Red states don’t flip Blue – something that UK political betting sites Ladbrokes are keeping a close eye on.
Indeed, the bookie has priced Trump at 5/2 to win all six featured states, and 5/1 to win none at all. Below, Gambling.com breaks down how Trump is faring in these six key states.
The state of Texas has not voted Democrat since backing Jimmy Carter in 1976. During the last election 52% of Texans voted for Trump – and the president has ramped up his rhetoric around the oil industry to maintain support in the Lone Star State here. Trump has a 2.2% poll lead over Biden in Texas and is 3/10 with Paddy Power to keep it Red.
One of America’s greatest swing states, Ohio has backed the winner of every US election since 1964. The state went in Trump’s favour four years ago by around eight percentage points and current polling has the 2020 US election as a tie in Ohio. Both Trump and Biden are campaigning in the state before the November 3 vote but the Republicans lead the betting odds at 4/9 to ensure it stays Red.
The Peach State has not voted Democrat since backing Bill Clinton in 1992. Yet the vote share for Trump four years ago was less than that given to Mitt Romney, John McCain and George W. Bush. Democrats see Georgia as a flippable state and Biden is leading by 2.6% in the polls. The Republicans are still narrow 8/11 favourites to win it though.
In 2008 North Carolina slipped Blue to help swear Barack Obama into the White House. The state backed Trump in 2016 by less than 175,000 votes. North Carolina has 15 electoral college votes and the polls suggest Biden has a 1.6% lead over Trump. But that leaves the state within the margin of error and the Republicans will hope to count on traditional support to see them through here.
An overwhelmingly Red state, Arizona’s sole Democrat vote in the past 70 years was for Bill Clinton back in 1992. Yet just like North Carolina, the state narrowly voted in Trump last time around and is flirting with a Biden victory here. Biden has a 1.2% poll lead in Arizona and the Democrats are 8/13 favourites to flip it Blue.
Possibly the most contentious state in the 2020 US election, both Biden and Trump have campaigned hard in Florida. The Democrats appear to have a narrow advantage in the Hispanic vote, while the Republicans are losing their grip on seniors. Still, Trump voted early in Florida in late October and that caused a shift in the betting odds in the president’s favour. Analysts predict Trump cannot win a second term without Florida, but the businessman is trailing by 3.4% in the polls at the time of writing. The latest odds have Trump at 4/5 to win the state, with Biden at 10/11.
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