Republican Ticket Betting Backs Trump/DeSantis But Haley, Lake & Noem In Running
Online bookmakers expect Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination and begrudgingly choose Ron DeSantis as his running mate for the 2024 US election - but the odds suggest this is far from a guarantee.
The Republicans are about to contest what will be a chaotic and controversial set of primaries, with Trump and DeSantis both preparing the ground for battle.
Superiority of the GOP is at stake, as is the nomination to go up against Joe Biden next year.
Trump is desperate to return to the White House and has baselessly accused the US government of a stitch-up over his loss to Biden by seven million votes in 2020.
DeSantis, meanwhile, is polling well and offers an alternative to Trumpism within the Republican Party that has for years swung to the populist far right.
The Republican primaries won’t begin until February 2024 but seven people - including Trump - have already put their name forward.
UK bookmakers currently suggest Trump is the third favourite in the 2024 US election betting, behind both Biden and DeSantis.
He was once the clear favourite but the emergence of a rival in Florida governor DeSantis means the GOP now has another option than simply toeing the Trump line.
Other candidates seeking the presidential nomination include Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy - two figures who confirmed their intention to run in February 2023.
The likes of DeSantis, Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo could all enter the mix soon.
Both Candace Owens and Kristi Noem are expected to throw their hat in the ring, in likely bids to become a running mate to a bigger name.
And bookies have drawn up their odds on the Republican ticket we’ll see go forward to the next election.
How Republican Primaries Work
The 2024 Republican primaries will begin in January of that year, where declared nominees will go head-to-head against each other in states across the country to secure votes. Whichever nominee lands the most votes becomes the GOP candidate for the 2024 election.
The primaries provide a rich ground for policy sharing and voter testing, but also act as a platform for presidential hopefuls to fine tune their public image. Trump eviscerated the field in 2016 with his hostile approach, and in 2020 there wasn’t much of a choice for Republicans to vote for anyone else but him.
This time it could be different. Yes, Trump is a horrendously formidable opponent – largely because his accusatory style drags debates away from policy and into the arena of political mudslinging. But he also has chinks in his armour that rivals can attack.
The GOP will name their presidential and vice presidential candidates at the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee that summer.
Republican Ticket Betting
So who will be on the Republican presidential ticket? Bookmakers Ladbrokes have already begun tweaking their odds in line with the perpetual changes within the GOP. And it certainly doesn’t look like a Trump/DeSantis ticket is guaranteed…
Trump/DeSantis
Bookmakers set a Trump/DeSantis ticket as favourite when they opened this market and this pairing has remained the frontrunner.
However, there are plenty of reasons why this bet won’t come off. For a start, Trump and DeSantis are rivals - anyone who seeks to pinch the nomination off Trump becomes his enemy.
The result is that Trump and DeSantis have now split the party, and only if the GOP finds some way of reuniting will they viably get along in an election campaign.
The bookies already suspect this. Having previously been priced at 11/2, the Trump/DeSantis odds have now floated out to 6/1.
It’s still the most likely pairing from the Republican primaries, but other options are closing in.
DeSantis/Neom
DeSantis needs backers if he is to take down Trump and secure the presidential nomination, and while Kristi Noem isn’t a fan of the Florida governor right now, could she be persuaded to back him?
Political betting sites evidently think so, with a DeSantis/Neom ticket floating around 12/1.
Trump endorsed Neom back in 2018 and she is seen as something of a loyalist. But analysts believe she has greater ambitions than simply supporting a frontman.
Join the DeSantis camp and she could be in line for the presidential pick further down the line.
Trump/Haley
A more viable selection than DeSantis/Neom appears to be Trump/Haley. In fact, punters are already turning towards this possible combination.
Haley has gone early in announcing her candidacy, and is cut from the Trump cloth.
She was United States Ambassador to the United Nations under the former president and their political aspirations align fairly well.
Haley undoubtedly would prefer to be the GOP pick, and could earn votes if Trump and DeSantis take each other down.
But in reality she’s more likely to side with one of the “big dogs” and become their running mate.
The Trump/Haley odds have already shifted from 14/1 to 12/1 - and could sink lower.
DeSantis/Trump
It appears highly unlikely that Trump would accept the role of vice president to anyone, let alone DeSantis.
But if he can use this to his political advantage then it could become an option.
Trump is under investigation over alleged Georgia election interference, the January 6 attack on the Capitol, his handling of classified documents, and his role in allegedly paying porn actress Stormy Daniels “hush money”.
On top of this, Trump is facing civil cases in New York over his business affairs, and a case of alleged rape, which he denies.
Getting back into power - even as a running mate - could help Trump’s cause on numerous fronts.
And at 16/1, the bookies evidently think he could yield to DeSantis if he needs to.
Trump/Noem
The odds on a Trump/Noem have already come in from 20/1 to 16/1 and we expect them to fall further.
After all, Noem is more politically aligned to Trump than she is DeSantis, and she would be a viable running mate. However, Haley is still the more likely candidate here.
Trump/Lake
Perhaps the most Trumpian politician bar the man himself, former TV presenter Kari Lake appears determined to get into frontline politics.
She lost last year’s Arizona gubernatorial election to Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, and hasn’t been successful in her Trump-like efforts to overturn the vote.
Lake tweeted “Trump 2024” on February 1 to make clear where her loyalties lie.
But she may also pitch herself into this race in an effort to land the vice presidential nomination. At 20/1, this isn't the worst option out there in the betting.
Trump/Greene
It’s unlikely that even Trump would opt to run alongside Marjorie Taylor Greene, based on her ability to alienate centrists.
However, the former president may see a way back to the White House with Greene in his camp, if the polling looks favourable.
Trump has publicly expressed his support for Greene but has other more likely running mates. At 20/1 these odds on new betting sites could soon widen.
Trump/Pence
Could the old band get back together for another shot at glory? Probably not.
Mike Pence burned his bridges with Trump when he supposedly turned on the president over the January 6 riots.
And Trump doesn’t forget betrayal in a hurry. Pence still holds sway in the GOP as a former vice president, but he’s more likely to run for the top job himself than get into bed with Trump again.
Betting apps have nudged the odds on Trump/Pence from 27/1 to 25/1, but don’t expect that price to fall much further.
DeSantis/Owens
Candace Owens was one of the Republican figures who questioned Trump’s leadership following the disappointing midterm election results last year.
This opened the door for a possible swing by Owens to the DeSantis camp. But she appears unwilling to side with either candidate.
Originally at 33/1 to team up with DeSantis, this price has floated to 50/1. We might not even see Owens in the primaries at this rate.
Trump/Ivanka
There was talk in 2018 that Trump would choose his daughter Ivanka as a running mate for the 2020 US election.
It never happened and Ivanka has been more embroiled in the January 6 investigation than any sort of frontline political career. Indeed, it looks unlikely that she will join her father on the ticket here.
Having once been an outside shot to one-day be president, she is now unlikely to enter this particular fray.
The bookies had Trump/Ivanka at 68/1, but have already shifted that price to 100/1.
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