Norwegian Election Betting: Odds Point To Labour Win Over FrP

Betting sites expect Labour to win the most seats in the upcoming Norwegian election and regain their grip on government after a slip earlier this year.

Labour currently govern Norway in a minority capacity after their coalition partners Senterpartiet (SP) quit the working agreement in January over the country’s energy policy.

An election was already penned in for September, with the conservative Hoyre and populist Progress Party (FrP) leading Labour in the polls when SP left office.

Yet in a remarkable U-turn, Labour’s popularity has now soared and they look on course to win the most seats this autumn.

That’s largely down to two influences: ex-prime minister Jens Stoltenberg’s return to frontline politics, and Donald Trump’s election in the US.

Politics betting sites have been keeping note and believe Norway is on course to re-elect Labour as the biggest party in parliament in 2025. 

Norwegian Election Betting Odds 2025: Most Seats

Norwegian Election Betting

The odds suggest Labour will win the most seats at the Norwegian election, although it’s unlikely they’ll pass the 85+ threshold to claim a majority.

But the odds weren’t always this way. At Christmas, FrP’s poll numbers were booming and they led both Labour and Hoyre by more than seven points.

Labour were on course for a stinging electoral defeat, with some polls having them as low as 14.2%.

But then came the new year and a remarkable turn of events. 

First, Trump won the US election and issued global tariff threats just days after his inauguration. The left has seen a poll boost in almost every national election since Trump’s return – and Norway is no different.

Then, the Centre Party quit the government over a dispute of Norway’s energy policy. They argued Labour are leaning too closely to EU alignment.

Labour replaced the vacancies within cabinet and continued to govern, while their poll numbers began to creep up in February as support for the populist FrP declined.

And Labour finally crossed the threshold to lead the polls midway through February, days after Stoltenberg’s return added fuel to their rise in popularity.

Stoltenberg is Norway’s former prime minister and led NATO during the war in Ukraine and Trump's first term. He is credited with preventing Trump from quitting the security alliance and is popular back home.

The ex-PM says he isn’t interested in the top job again but his return to cabinet as finance minister has given Labour a huge poll boost.

Now, William Hill prices Labour at 1/14 to win the most seats – odds that carry a 93.3% chance.

It’s a remarkable turnaround for the party but the job isn’t done yet.

Who Will Win The Norwegian Election?

Norway’s election is scheduled for September 8, 2025.

Right now, the polls make for interesting reading. Labour seem to be holding firm at around 30% as prime minister Jonas Gahr Store leads the minority government.

FrP – now 7/1 to win the most seats with betting apps – have seen their support bottom out at around 20%. Hoyre, meanwhile, are way down at 15% – a similar situation to where the UK Conservative party finds itself.

If an election were called today, Labour would claim the most seats but wouldn't necessarily be able to form a government.

It all depends on who would join Store and Stoltenberg’s party in government. SP are out after quitting in January and their poll rating has already fallen away. 

Socialist parties SV and Rodt could seek to influence Labour but may not get many votes this time around.

It’s possible that Hoyre and FrP could join forces to carry more seats and attract a handful of smaller parties to form a working majority.

This election isn’t won yet. There’s a lot to play for, and there’s also no guarantee Hoyre and FrP would get on.