MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 13

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 13
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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American League Best Bet

New York Yankees -160 at Boston Red Sox +150

7:10 p.m. ET

The AL East will have at least three teams in the playoffs, but how those teams will be seeded is yet to be determined. 

The New York Yankees once enjoyed a 15.5-game lead, but that is down to 5.5 games over the Toronto Blue Jays and six games over the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Red Sox are in last place but are hardly a last-place type of team, just three games under.500 for the season. They are coming off a series win over the Al East rival Baltimore Orioles.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Red Sox using the moneyline in this matchup.

  • The Yankees are 25-33, losing 25 units on the moneyline, when facing teams whose hitters strike out an average of seven or more times per game in the second half of this season.
  • The Yankees are 22-30, losing 14 units on the moneyline, when facing a team averaging .6 or fewer errors per game in the second half of this season.
  • The Yankees are 2-10, losing 12 units on the moneyline, in road games and coming off a win of six or more runs against a divisional rival in games played over the last three seasons.

I am betting the Red Sox on the moneyline at +150, as offered at BetRivers Sportsbook.

 

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National League Best Bet

Philadelphia Phillies +115 at Miami Marlins -130

6:40 p.m. ET

The Phillies hold the second of three National League Wild Card berths, by 1.5 games over the San Diego Padres, who hold the third berth and by 3.5 games over Milwaukee with 22 games left to the regular season. 

So, the games Philadelphia has against the losing record teams down the stretch are big.

What is intriguing in this matchup is that the Phillies will face the NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara. He is 12-7 in 28 starts with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.006 WHIP, including 47 walks and 177 strikeouts spanning 196 2/3 innings of work. He is priced as a -185 favorite at BetMGM to win the Cy Young.

However, in his last three starts, fatigue has set in. Alcantara has posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.200 WHIP and allowed five home runs. Before those three starts, he had allowed only nine home runs. Making it worse for him, the Phillies are a Top 5 offensive team in MLB.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angle supports a moneyline wager on the Phillies.

  • The Phillies skipper Rob Thomson is 28-5, making 20 units on the moneyline, when facing a foe averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits per game.
  • The Marlins skipper Don Mattingly is 44-105 on the moneyline, losing 44 units, when facing a foe outscoring their opponents by .5 or more runs per game in the second half of the regular season.
  • The Phillies are 17-3, making 15 units on the moneyline, in road games following a win by two or fewer runs this season.

I am going to the window betting the Phillies on the moneyline +115 as offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.

 

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Quick Pitches

Here are some player prop bets to consider on today’s schedule.

  • Bet Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta Under 2.5 earned runs allowed +115 at Caesars.
  • Bet Boston’s J.D. Martinez to get 2+ hits +300 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the A’s Tony Kemp to get a hit -220 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Braves’ Kyle Wright Under 4.5 hits allowed +120 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Phillies’ Bryce Harper to get 2+ hits +290 at FanDuel.

In the past 89 prop bet picks, my record is 43-46, making a profit of $357 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,785 per $100 wager. The results over more than three months have produced a 53% return on investment (ROI).

 

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