MLB Picks: Can Phillies Close out Against Atlanta?

MLB Picks: Can Phillies Close out Against Atlanta?
© USA Today

All four playoff matchups resume Saturday, and three of them are elimination games. The teams that need to win are modest favorites. 

Can the Atlanta Braves extend their series with the Philadelphia Phillies with a win and force a deciding Game 5 in Atlanta? 

Can the surprising San Diego Padres win today and eliminate the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers?

Will the Seattle Mariners somehow find a way to win a game over the Houston Astros? 

To help with your MLB betting, here are some answers.

Atlanta Braves -125 at Philadelphia Phillies +110

2:07 p.m. ET, FS1

The Phillies will look to eliminate the Braves and will start right-hander Noah Syndergaard (0-0, 0.00 postseason; 10-10, 3.94 ERA regular season).

Syndergaard threw one scoreless inning in relief in the Game 2 loss in Atlanta. He has meaningful playoff experience, with a 2-1 record with a 2.33 ERA and 37 strikeouts in six career postseason appearances.

The Braves will have right-hander Charlie Morton (2022 postseason debut; 9-6, 4.34 ERA regular season) on the hill. 

He is a veteran starter, having pitched in 13 playoff series for four teams (Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, and the Braves), posting a 7-4 record with a 3.35 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 78 innings.

Situational Trends and Angles

  • Teams leading in a playoff series, priced as home dogs, and winning the previous game by at least five runs are 6-5, earning a highly profitable 20% return on investment (ROI).
  • Home dogs leading in a playoff series are 28-20 for a profitable 30% ROI

I am betting on the Phillies using the moneyline priced at +111 at DraftKings.

Los Angeles Dodgers -120 at San Diego Padres +105

9:37 p.m. ET, FS1

  • Bet 50% of your normal bet amount ‘pre-flop’ (before the game starts) on the Padres.
  • If during the first two innings the Dodgers score first not more than 3 runs, bet the remaining 50% using the live in-game moneyline price on the Padres.

New York Yankees –115 at Cleveland Guardians +105 

7:37 p.m. ET, TBS

I am leaning on the Cleveland Guardians in Game 3 to win and take a 2-1 lead in the series.

  • Guardians’ starter Tristin McKenzie has posted a 2.45 ERA and a .909 WHIP in two starts this season against the Yankees
  • Yankees manager Aaron Boone is 56-71, losing 35 units on the moneyline, when facing an AL opponent allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game in the second half of the past five seasons.

Houston Astros –110 at Seattle Mariners +100

4:07 p.m. ET, TBS

  • The Mariners are 35-21 Over when facing an opponent averaging 1.30 or more home runs per game in the second half of the past two seasons.
  • Astros starter Lance Mc Cullers, Jr. is 10-2 Over following a start in which he allowed no more than a single earned run over the last two seasons.

Quick Pitches

These are the player prop bets to consider today.

  • Bet the Phillies' Noah Syndergaard Over 3.5 strikeouts +110 at BetRivers.
  • Bet the Phillies' Kyle Schwarber to score a run –115 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Phillies' Alec Bohm to hit a home run +700 at BetRivers.
  • Bet the Padres' Joe Musgrove Over 5.5 strikeouts +108 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Guardians' Triston McKenzie Over 16.5 recorded outs -128 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Padres' Juan Soto to hit a home run +500 at DraftKings.

In 183 prop bets, I have an 81-102 record, making a profit of $495 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,475 per $100 wager. The results have produced a 64% return on investment (ROI) for the 2022 MLB season and playoffs.

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