Can the Boston Celtics Contain Milwaukee and Get Back in the Series?
Here is our NBA betting for tonight's playoff games. Read on before you make your wagers.
Milwaukee at Boston
7 p.m. ET, TNT
The Boston Celtics will need to find answers and make the correct adjustments to contain Giannis Antetokounmpo if they want to be competitive in this series.
Antetokounmpo is coming off his second playoff triple-double with 24 points, 12 assists and 13 rebounds. He shot 9-of-25 from the field. Overall, the Celtics' defense played well, allowing the Bucks to make 41% of their shot attempts.
It was the transition defense that did Boston in. The Celtics allowed 28 fast break points. They were also outscored in the paint by the Bucks 34-20, which brings to light the strength of the Bucks’ defensive effort in limiting the Celtics to 89 points.
Note that teams that allowed 25 or more fast break points in their previous playoff game are 40-62 straight-up and 43-57-2 against the spread for 43% winning bets over the last 20 playoff seasons.
The Analytics Support the Bucks in Game 2
The following betting algorithm has earned a solid 243-162 straight-up record for 60% winning bets.
The requirements are to bet on a team using the moneyline that has seen their previous three games play to the Under by a combined total of 20 or more points and is a matchup of elite teams that have won 60% or more of their regular and playoff games in the current season spanning the last five seasons.
Suppose we slice out only the playoff games from the algorithm. In that case, the Bucks find themselves in an ideal situation sporting a 69-44 straight-up record and 65-47-1 against the spread for 58% winning bets, including a 64-45-3 Under record for 59% winning bets over the last five seasons.
Now, if that team mentioned above is coming off an upset win, the Under has posted a strong 40-18-6 record, good for 69% winning bets over the last five seasons.
I am betting on the Milwaukee Bucks plus the points.
Golden State at Memphis
9:30 p.m., TNT
The Memphis Grizzlies won three games against Minnesota in the first round after trailing by double digits entering the fourth quarter.
They almost pulled it off in Game 1 against the Warriors, but Ja Morant missed a contested layup attempt at the buzzer.
At no time in the past 20 NBA playoff seasons has there been more than two wins in which the team trailed by double digits entering the fourth quarter got a win.
The Warriors are a solid 35-16 against the spread in the second half of each of the past 10 seasons and playoffs against a team that outrebounds their opponents by six or more per game.
They are also 34-18 against the spread off a road win of three or fewer points spanning the last 10 seasons.
The Grizzlies have been a money-burning 7-21 against the spread following a game that played Over the posted total spanning the last three seasons.
What the Betting System Tells Us
This betting system has produced a 112-50 against the spread record for 69% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.
The requirements are to bet on any team in a matchup of elite teams that have won 60 to 75% of their games and bet against the opponent that lost the previous game straight-up but covered the spread.
This system has earned a 23-8-1 against the spread record, good for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons, including the playoffs.
I like betting the Warriors using the moneyline.
The Player Prop Best Bets
Here are some other bets I like tonight:
Bet Jayson Tatum Over 3.5 turnovers at +130 as offered at BetMGM.
Take Tatum Under 41.5 -110 points, assists, and rebounds as offered at BetMGM.
Bet the Warriors to be the first team to score 50 points at -105 as offered at BetMGM.
Take Ja Morant Over 17.5 assists and rebounds at +105 as offered at BetMGM.
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