Democratic Primary Betting Odds 2024

Craig Cummings

November 15th, 2021

Url copied!

© PA

Following the Democratic primary odds through an election cycle can prove highly lucrative if you’re open to wagering on politics at the best political betting sites in the UK.

America’s Democratic party holds primaries to select their presidential nomination in the run-up to every general election – and there are plenty of opportunities to play the politics odds to your advantage.

Over the years the Democratic primary betting markets have endured plenty of shock results, none more so than in 2007 when Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton to the nomination.

The likes of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg will likely be in the mix once the primaries begin and the party comes together for the 2024 Democratic National Convention that summer.

And so, there’s no time to lose if you want to get ahead of other punters and take advantage of the strong early odds.

Democratic Primary Odds

Like all political betting, there’s a slight degree of uncertainty when it comes to betting on the Democrat primary elections. After all, surprise results and big swings among key states can suddenly upend the markets.

Right now, the next Democratic candidate odds haven’t been released. And that’s not a surprise as we’re still three years out from the actual US election. However, odds on who will be the next president have been in flux for some time – and this can give us an indication of who will be nominated by the party. Of course, it’s always good to keep an eye on the election polls and compare them to the bookmakers’ odds.

How Democratic Primaries Work

It may seem wildly complicated but actually, how the Democratic primaries work is fairly straightforward. Every state in the US will vote in either a primary or a caucus. Each state has its own laws on how to conduct these votes but the important thing for us to know is that eventually every state backs a single party delegate.

This delegation will have pledged to vote for one of the Democrat presidential candidates at the Democratic National Convention. So when the Convention begins, the party will have representatives from all 50 states and seven other regions, casting their votes for who they (and their state) want to be president.

Of course, this method of election is not watertight. A state could send a delegation to the National Convention expecting them to vote one way, only for them to then change their mind. However, generally the delegates stay true to their word, which means presidential nominees effectively know whether or not they’ve won when individual state results come through.

Key Dates to Track

The closer we get to the primaries the more we’ll know about when each state’s votes will be held. For now, though, we can be sure that the likes of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina will likely cast their nominations in February 2024.

Super Tuesday takes place in February or March of an election year and sees around one-third of US states cast their votes. In 2020 Biden earned the bulk of Super Tuesday delegates and from that stage was always on course to earn the nomination.

In 2024, it will be interesting to see which states flip to Harris if she runs against Biden, and which states drift to other candidates.

Most Likely Democrat Presidential Nominees

It’s fairly clear from the outset that the Democratic Primary odds will focus on two candidates in 2024: Biden and Harris. It’s rare that a sitting president doesn’t run for a second term, and even at the age of 82, Biden may fancy his chances of winning four more years in the White House.

Should Biden decline to go again, then it’s likely his vice-president Harris will pick up the baton for the party. Harris has four years to conquer Congress and set out her vision to the American public.

Harris’ polling numbers have dropped since she came into office as Biden’s No.2, and in fact, the pair have kept their distance in public. That’s likely to be a plotted play on behalf of Harris’ team to ensure she doesn’t get dragged down with Biden if the president’s own poll ratings continue to dip.

When the Democrat nominee odds are released, then Biden and Harris will be at the top of the list. But could we see a challenge from another figure? Pete Buttigieg is currently the third-highest priced Democrat to win the 2024 election and is one of the most likely Democrat presidential nominees. The transport secretary is a former military officer and, in his early 40s, would certainly be a younger, more vigorous choice for president than Biden.

Michelle Obama is another name thrown out by the bookies and the former First Lady is polling well among potential voters. The Obamas have played down the possibility of Michelle running for the presidency but she certainly knows the machinations of D.C. well enough and has experience in front-line international politics.

Democratic Nomination Betting Strategies

Betting on the Democratic nomination for this election is different to 2020 because there’s now a Democrat in office. It means that Biden will be the overwhelming favourite to get the nomination unless he decides against running.

Therefore, political betting strategists will look at different methods to make gains during the primaries.

• Back the outsider – Early betting markets always have inflated prices compared to when the race is in its final weeks. Sticking a wager on an early outsider could be a smart move as their odds may plummet over the coming months.
• Cash out early – Many top UK bookmakers offer you the chance to cash out on your bets, which could be ideal if you have bet on an early outsider, for example. Cashing out can help you earn a swift profit or cut your losses, and is an ace up your sleeve that is usually worth considering when it comes to politics betting.
• Focus on states – You’ll be able to bet on individual states during the Democratic primaries and that means banking on incremental wins for the likes of Biden and Harris. You’re potentially going to access better Democrat nomination odds in these markets compared to the overarching one.

Democratic Party Betting Odds

Once the primaries are out of the way and we have a nominee for the 2024 US election, the betting focus will swing to that November 5 date.

Right now the Democrats are narrowly ahead of the Republicans in the battle to win the election but in reality, we’re still too far out to know on which side the coin will fall.

Over the years, incumbent presidents have fared well in securing second terms. In fact, Donald Trump became only the 10th president to fail in his attempt to secure four more years in the White House. Trump’s 2020 defeat meant he became the first one-term president since George H. W. Bush was beaten by Bill Clinton in 1992.

Biden or Harris (assuming one of these two earns the nomination) will likely head into the 2024 US election as a favourite. But how heavy their odds are depends on who they’re up against.

It appears as though Trump is angling for another shot at the presidency and is the big name to run again during the Republican primaries. In fact, so strong is Trump’s support within the party that he is almost guaranteed to get the GOP pick if he wants it.

Could Biden or Harris beat Trump a second time around? Perhaps. But the odds will certainly be close. The Democrats were narrow favourites in 2020 and beat Trump by seven million votes – but 2024 could be a whole different story.