How Often Do Teams Benefit From A New Manager Bounce?

Paul Warne became the 34th manager to lose his job during the current 2024/25 season. 

It was a decision the Derby board didn't have to make, but with the club 22nd in the Championship, Warne's dismissal was announced on Friday, February 7.

Football betting sites will continue to monitor the situation at Pride Park on who will replace Warne in the dugout. 

More often than not, clubs that change their managers midway through a campaign, do so because of a poor run of form. 

By making the switch, clubs hope that the introduction of a new manager with different ideas can freshen things up and bring an immediate change of fortune.

In other words, clubs want to benefit from what is called a 'new manager bounce'. But how often do teams benefit from making a managerial change during a season? 

Our research team has analysed the fortunes of every Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two club, who have changed their boss since the start of the season.

You may be surprised by our findings.

A Third Of New Managers Win First League Game

When clubs decide on who their next permanent manager will be, the hope is that they get off to a winning start. 

A win lifts the mood around the club and helps the players to buy into what the new gaffer is aiming for with his philosophies and style of play. 

The longer a replacement manager has to wait for a first win, the more nervous and anxious the fan base becomes.

Mike Dodds was appointed Wycombe's replacement for Matt Bloomfield, who left the Adams Park club to replace Rob Edwards at Luton Town.

Permanent Manager's 1st League Game After Mid-Season Change

Dodds was the 33rd managerial change of the season and he is waiting to take charge of his first league game as the Chairboys boss. 

Of the previous 32 managers to have taken charge of a league game for their new team, 11 (34.4%) have managed to win. Steven Schumacher is the most recent to do so, when guiding his Bolton side to a 1-0 win at Reading. 

Eight (25%) have managed to take a point in their new surroundings, while 13 (40.6%) have lost their opening league game. 

Dodds, and whoever Derby appoint, will be hoping they can start by taking all three points in their first league contest.

More Defeats Immediately After Change

The number of wins in league and cup games immediately after a managerial change are much lower than the club making the switch hoped for. 

In the 34 games in all competitions after a manager has been sacked, left by mutual consent, resigned or left to join another club, only 10 wins have been secured.

Those wins have been orchestrated by either caretaker managers or permanent managers, if clubs were able to get their man in place straight away.

Ryan Lowe was the first managerial change after the season had started, lasting just one game before leaving Preston by mutual consent.

Results Immediately After A Mid-Season Change

Mike Marsh was his temporary replacement and he guided North End to a 2-0 win over Sunderland in the Carabao Cup.

Mark Hughes is the latest manager to be a part of this season's managerial merry-go-round, answering Carlisle's SOS call following the departure of Mike Williamson, who started the season as MK Dons boss.

Carlisle's 2-1 defeat at Grimsby was the 15th time a team lost their next game immediately after a change of manager. 

In terms of league games immediately after a switch of gaffer, a team has won only nine (26.4%) of the 34 matches.

League Result Immediately After Mid-Season Change

Northampton were the first team to manage this when Ian Sampson led the Cobblers to a 2-1 home win over Peterborough on December 9, following the resignation of Jon Brady.

It was at the 15th time of asking following six draws and nine defeats for the various caretaker and permanent managers.