How Long Will Sir Keir Starmer Last As UK Prime Minister?

Sir Keir Starmer is facing significant pressure to boost the country’s fortunes following a rollercoaster first year in Downing Street and the odds on betting sites suggest he is in a fight to keep his job as UK prime minister in 2026.

The PM’s autumn has been marred by sackings and scandals, while Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has made a not-so-subtle pitch to succeed him.

Labour already appear to be at a crossroads, with Starmer admitting during the party’s autumn conference that tougher times are coming for the country.

Reform UK are enjoying record support and Starmer took aim at Nigel Farage during his conference speech – a sign that he is ready for the fight.

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Keir Starmer Odds

Starmer said during his party conference speech that Labour are in a “fight for the soul of our country” with Reform. 

Arguing that his government will ignite “national renewal” across the country, the PM laid the groundwork for Rachel Reeves’ November budget.

However, it remains unclear whether he will stay in power long enough to fulfil his ambitions for the country.

Political betting sites recently cut their odds on Starmer being ousted next year to Evens, which suggests a 50% likelihood.

Labour MPs are unhappy with the government’s economic course and it’s no coincidence Burnham – with one eye on Downing Street – has popped up in the media recently.

Burnham is backing Lucy Powell in the Labour deputy leadership race and, should she edge Bridget Phillipson to the job, then he will have even more influence in government.

Meanwhile, the shadow of Farage looms large over Starmer’s premiership. 

Labour are desperate to fight Reform but have drawn criticism from the left for replicating Reform-like policies, rather than offering viable alternatives.

Will Starmer Lose His Job?

The UK enters the autumn with great uncertainty over its prime minister. 

Starmer is unlikely to be ousted this year but could feel the heat at the end of the winter.

The public is likely to be asked to pay more taxes in the November budget or face severe service cuts. Energy costs are also set to rise.

Chancellor Reeves insists she will not borrow money to fund day-to-day spending, so more taxes seem inevitable.

Yet voters rarely approve tax rises and this is causing more Labour backers from the 2024 general election to flip to Reform.

Farage – four years out from the next election – has made plenty of promises on how he would run the country, with deportations part of his plan for economic recovery.

Starmer has not yet found the solution to the country’s economic woes, which is why Farage’s brash policies are so attractive to millions of voters.

The PM still has time to turn the ship around and boasts a large majority in the Commons.

However, if he cannot stem the tide of voters shifting to Reform soon then Labour backbenchers will get restless.

Burnham – albeit not an MP – has pitched himself as a viable replacement. 

Wes Streeting and Yvette Cooper are the only two Starmerites with a realistic chance of succeeding the prime minister.

The pool is shallow and there is no evident succession in place, but that will not stop Labour MPs ousting their leader if they feel his premiership has run out of ideas to fight Reform.

The health secretary has a fairly strong approval rating and is adept at arguing against the populist right.

Starmer looks unlikely to win the next election because there is a chance he will not be there to contest it, but Streeting certainly could.

The political betting markets are in for a rollercoaster ride over the next four years.

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