How Long Will Sir Keir Starmer Last As UK Prime Minister?

Betting sites have widened their odds on Sir Keir Starmer losing his job as UK prime minister this year – but the prospect of him being ousted in 2026 has increased.

Starmer has enjoyed something of a polling reprise over the past week after the UK and US publicly presented their trade deal during the G7 summit in Canada.

Photos of Starmer holding the agreement alongside US president Donald Trump has eased economic concerns back home at a time of intense scrutiny on Labour’s financial plans.

With chancellor Rachel Reeves battling to grow the economy, Starmer needed a “good news story” to take home from the G7.

While the world turns its attention to Israel’s conflict with Iran, Starmer appears to be quietly making progress on the domestic front.

The latest polls suggest Labour have risen three points in June to 24%, however, they remain behind Reform UK (27%) although the gap is much smaller than a few weeks ago.

Meanwhile, support for the Conservatives continues to dwindle, making Starmer’s job security all the healthier.

Yet betting apps don’t think Starmer is out of the woods just yet. 

In fact, they reckon the PM’s chances of leaving Downing Street next year are growing.

Keir Starmer Odds

Ladbrokes recently shifted their Starmer odds to reflect a changing perception of his longevity. 

The Labour leader is now 11/2 to lose his job in 2025 – odds that carry a 15.4% probability, which is a sharp drop from 4/1 earlier this month, and coincides with his 2026 odds falling. 

Starmer is now 7/2 on political betting sites to be gone in 2026 – odds that carry an increased 22.2% likelihood.

This matters because bookmakers are beginning to believe Starmer will see out the summer and the party conference season in the autumn, before hunkering down for the winter.

It’s the months of November to March that will define Starmer’s longevity. 

If he can’t get the economy motoring by then and has to withdraw benefits such as the winter fuel allowance again, then he may suffer a revolt from within his own party.

Labour MPs are scared of Reform’s remarkable rise over the past 12 months and are already worried about losing their seats in 2029.

If Starmer cannot convince them he’s the right person to steer the UK through its economic struggles, then the may start looking for a replacement.

Who Could Replace Starmer?

If the prime minister starts to feel the heat next year, then there are several candidates to succeed him from Labour’s front bench.

Wes Streeting and Yvette Cooper top the 10Bet odds. 

Health secretary Streeting is 5/1 to be the next Labour leader, with home secretary Cooper at 7/1.

Angela Rayner (8/1) is close behind, before Manchester mayor Andy Burnham (10/1). Reeves completes the frontrunners but is out at 16/1.

Now, the odds reveal something about Starmer’s job security. 

His longevity is tied to the economy and to Reeves – if he fails, she fails. 

That’s why her odds are so wide compared to other figures.

Burnham isn’t even an MP, so would need to be elected to parliament. 

Were he to run at the 2029 election then it could be viewed as him positioning to go to the top job one day.

A leadership contest in 2026, then, would likely come down to Streeting, Cooper and Rayner. 

The latter is arguably the more left-wing of the trio and would get support from Labour’s unions and young voters.

Cooper would be the steady option and perhaps the one Britain’s fiscal markets would prefer in charge. 

But Streeting has cut a popular figure of late as Labour increases NHS spending – he would also get support from MPs.

Of course, we’re still a long way off a Labour leadership contest and the odds suggest Starmer is most likely to lose his job in 2029 or later, at 6/4 (40%).

Still, punters are watching the Starmer odds closely and will likely move on a replacement candidate if there’s a whiff of insurrection within the ranks.