Keir Starmer Exit Date Odds: Labour Have No Easy Path To Remove Their Leader

The crisis engulfing prime minister Sir Keir Starmer discussed on these pages last month, following the Caerphilly by-election, has escalated even quicker than expected. 

The Westminster press is alive with reports of briefing by the PM’s allies against health secretary Wes Streeting, whom they believe is plotting a leadership challenge, perhaps after what is widely expected to be a deeply unpopular budget. 

Political betting sites now make Starmer odds-on to leave his post in 2026, with a best-priced 5/6 generally available. An exit before the end of 2025 is 18/1 on betting apps.

For his part, Streeting used TV interviews to strenuously deny any such plotting. Just as one would expect. 

The golden rule in such situations is that would-be challengers and plotters will never fess up in public. 

However, what should bettors make of the unfolding drama? Just how much trouble is Starmer in and when is he most likely to leave post?

* Our free to play Cosmo Spins game has blasted off and the Prize Wheel prizes include 1k in Cash! Click the banner below to play. Terms and conditions and location restrictions apply.

Streeting Is Not The Only Potential Challenger

Without doubt, Starmer is in a heap of trouble with the wider electorate. If his allies genuinely fear Streeting, that in itself is a signal. 

The health secretary was seen as a very close ally, representing the same wing of the party. Unlike, say, Andy Burnham or Angela Rayner. 

Note that, whilst the Streeting accusation gained the headlines, reports also suggested Rayner, Shabana Mahmood and Ed Miliband were positioning for a leadership contest too.

That suggests the faction around No.10 are truly panicked. They recognise the PM has lost the support of the parliamentary party and may be preparing for a challenge. 

If they fear allies such as Streeting and Mahmood, that suggests the rest of the cabinet knows it too. 

Another possibility is the briefers are playing some tactical game, to either ward off a challenge before it happens or even to create a narrative positioning Streeting as the favourite. 

An open question, a known unknown, is whether Starmer himself is responsible for the briefings. 

Streeting was swift to dispel that idea and blame the briefers. Is this possible? And if so, what does that say about Starmer’s control of his own team? Neither scenario is positive. 

Perhaps clues on that score can be taken from past internal machinations. 

When in opposition, briefing against Rayner caused a mini-crisis, before her supporters made it clear that as deputy leader of the party, Starmer couldn’t simply sack her without ramifications. 

Soon after taking office, an internal coup of sorts removed chief of staff Sue Gray, who was then replaced by Morgan McSweeney.

McSweeney’s reputation, at least in the press, as an all-powerful fixer is akin to Dominic Cummings under Boris Johnson. 

The truth is impossible to know, but it is not unimaginable that McSweeney or others are acting without Starmer’s consent. 

Just as the sacking of Cummings was a critical turning point for that government, so too would McSweeney’s exit. 

If Starmer is to calm headlines and demonstrate he is in control, that may be the next move.

Starmer Will Surely Lead Into May’s Elections

Whether it would work, or whether Starmer’s reputation is too far gone with both the public and party, remains to be seen. 

As it stands, Labour are heading for an historic thrashing in next May’s elections in Scotland and Wales. 

For that reason, it must be highly unlikely that anyone moves against Starmer beforehand. 

There is nothing to gain from instant humiliation. Any replacement will need time to turn things around.

So, is 2026 a certainty? Caution is advised here as the odds collapse. It is essential to understand the nature of the Labour Party.

In stark contrast to the Conservatives, their MPs have never ejected their leader. Tony Blair named a date for his retirement and stuck to it. John Smith and Hugh Gaitskill died. Harold Wilson retired. All others resigned after election defeats. 

Readers with longer memories may recall the protracted Blair/Brown succession. 

Whilst PM and Chancellor were widely understood to be arguing constantly over the former’s leaving date, with rival factions at war and alternative candidates being mooted via press leaks, all that took place behind closed doors. 

There was no public blood-letting of the type that wrecked the last Conservative government.

In order to trigger a leadership contest, a challenger would need to secure the support of 20% of the parliamentary party. 

That would be extremely difficult when there isn’t a clear alternative, and it would be impossible to marshall that many MPs without the story breaking out. 

It would be very risky for a frontline candidate, such as Streeting or Rayner. One alternative would be to use a ‘stalking horse’. 

A candidate who had no intention of running, or a serious chance were they to do so, in a subsequent leadership contest. 

Were they to seem set to secure the required level of support, Starmer would almost certainly resign. 

Play The Long Game

However, even that scenario would prompt a leadership contest, which would likely prove chaotic for the country and damage the party. 

The only way to avoid it would be a coronation of a replacement, agreed by all the factions. Such a person is devilishly hard to identify.

It is therefore very easy to see this dragging on. If nothing happens before May, and then plotters baulk at the various bad options, Starmer could well linger on in power, popular or not. 

The odds on 2027 are 9/2 with Betfred and 6/1 on StarSports for 2028 would likely shorten up considerably. The former, in particular, is solid trading value.

Do you think Sir Keir Starmer will still be PM by the next election? VOTE NOW!