How Long Will Sir Keir Starmer Last As UK Prime Minister?

Betting sites believe Sir Keir Starmer’s chances of leading Labour into the next general election are worsening as the prime minister struggles to revive his party’s poll ratings.

Starmer is battling to cut through with the British public despite holding a huge majority in parliament.

Labour have fallen to 20 points in the polls, while Reform UK are now pushing towards 30%.

Voters are dissatisfied with how Labour have handled the economy, welfare, immigration and wider social issues since sweeping to office in July 2024.

A determination to hold the centre ground seems to have pleased no one, with Starmer attracting criticism from the left and right.

In response, the PM is planning another shake-up of his administrative team and has ditched principal private secretary Nin Pandit – the third top aide to leave the role in a year.

But political betting sites reckon Starmer’s got himself into such a tangle that he is likely to lose his job before the next election.

Keir Starmer Odds

Indeed, Star Sports has made the move to cut Starmer’s early exit odds from Evens to 4/6. That suggests a 60% likelihood that Starmer won’t be prime minister heading into the next election.

Meanwhile, the same bookmaker reckons Starmer is 11/4 (26.7% probability) to lose his job in 2026.

This is bad news for the PM, who is scrambling to maintain Labour’s credibility as the party of government in the face of intense criticism.

The bad news started around 12 months ago, when Labour made it clear they wouldn’t splash the cash now they were in office, due to the “£21billion black hole” left by the Tories.

But voters backed Labour on the assumption they would increase public spending.

With the cost of living rising and welfare cuts hurting the most vulnerable, voters have shifted their allegiance from Labour and the Conservatives to Reform.

No wonder Reform are now the 6/5 favourites to win most seats at the next election and Nigel Farage is 5/2 to be the next prime minister.

Meanwhile, Starmer is 11/4 (26.7%) with betting apps to lose his job next year.

Will Starmer Keep His Job?

Yet, Labour may replace Starmer before Farage gets a stab at No 10.

The party is split on a number of core issues – primarily welfare, immigration, social issues and the conflict in the Middle East.

While Starmer has sought a centrist approach – and at times drifted to the right – bedrock Labour supporters and backbench MPs have become frustrated with his premiership.

All the while, the wider public are dissatisfied with the PM.

This has created a potent mix that spells danger for Starmer. No wonder he sacked his top aide in the hope of finding a miracle replacement.

Starmer has worked himself into a bind of his own making. Voters want to see progress but Labour can’t offer it, because they won’t increase public spending or countenance tax rises.

The result is Labour members and the unions becoming steadily more frustrated with the PM.

So, could Starmer lose his job? It’s very possible he will face a leadership challenge next spring if Labour can’t resurrect the economy by then.

Angela Rayner would be the obvious choice to challenge Starmer on the grounds she is the most left-leaning cabinet member in a position of power.

The likes of Wes Streeting or Yvette Cooper (priced at 7/1 and 9/1 respectively to succeed Starmer) are unlikely to directly challenge the PM. But Rayner could.

And this is why the bookies are keeping their options open on the possibility of Starmer being ousted before the next election in 2029.

There is a growing feeling that the PM’s time could soon be up – whether it’s via Rayner herself who challenges the prime minister or a wider uprising of dissent from within the ranks.