How Long Will Sir Keir Starmer Last As UK Prime Minister?
Betting sites have again shortened their odds on Sir Keir Starmer losing his job as UK prime minister in 2026 and doubt he will be in Downing Street come the next election.
Starmer just cannot seem to get a break as Labour flounder in the polls.
They are stuck on around 23 points, with some polling companies suggesting Nigel Farage’s Reform UK are as much as 11 points ahead of the government.
In response, Starmer has sought to be tougher on immigration and welfare spending, in the hope of cutting off a surge in right-wing support.
But in doing so, he has upset his own Labour MPs and many supporters - including the unions - who were hoping the PM’s election last summer would lead to more public spending and left-leaning social policies.
Starmer is now a year into the job but appears stuck in the centre ground, with little room to manoeuvre.
Recent financial forecasts suggest a £41bn spending gap in the UK economy, which experts believe will lead Labour to increase taxes in the autumn.
This could prove hugely unpopular and break Starmer’s election commitment not to "tax working people".
However, with the UK economy facing a downturn, it appears as though there is no other option for the Labour leader unless he chooses to increase borrowing.
No wonder the betting apps are closely monitoring his job security.
Keir Starmer Odds
Indeed, political betting sites have made the move to cut Starmer’s odds on a 2026 exit from 3/1 to 11/4.
It is not a huge leap but is the latest step in a trend that has seen the PM’s price shrink rapidly over the past two months.
The fresh odds suggest a 26.7% chance of Starmer losing his job next year.
It appears increasingly possible that Labour backbenchers could turn on the government if the country’s economic and societal woes are not resolved by the spring.
After all, Labour MPs argue they didn’t stand in the election to cut welfare from the most vulnerable in British society.
Nor did they actively complain on a hardline immigration playbook.
And yet, Starmer appears more worried about the rise in popularity across right-wing politics than he is with fulfilling his remit from left-leaning supporters and MPs.
No wonder Star Sports recently cut their odds on Starmer not being PM at the next election to 8/11 (57.9% probability).
Can Starmer Save His Job?
The prime minister needs some good news, fast.
His approval ratings have plummeted since he got into office and seem to drop every time he focuses on domestic policy.
Whenever Starmer enters the international stage - such as during trade relations, or when dealing with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - his approval numbers rise.
Evidently the British public - and Labour MPs and supporters - like having a former lawyer in charge of the country’s international policies.
The problem comes when Starmer has to "play politics" at a domestic level.
From the winter fuel allowance to the scrapping of welfare benefits, unfortunate rhetoric about social integration and his own - admittedly mild - freebies scandal, the last 12 months have not gone great for Starmer.
Is there anything to look forward to or should punters cash in on his exit odds now?
The summer has failed to deliver its expected economic U-turn and Labour are facing a long, cold, hard winter ahead.
Starmer almost certainly will not get through the winter without issues and, potentially, rebellions.
With energy prices set to rise and food already more expensive than a year ago, working people are about to feel the pinch.
An autumn tax raid on incomes will prove hugely unpopular. Starmer, it seems, has a choice.
Continue down the current path and risk rebellion, or boldly swing towards the left. The odds suggest he’ll probably stick to the former.
