How Long Will Sir Keir Starmer Last As UK Prime Minister?

Betting sites have further cut their odds on Sir Keir Starmer being ousted as UK prime minister before the next election after another difficult week for the Labour leader.

Starmer doesn’t seem able to catch a break after it emerged Labour – and the former Conservative government – have kept a £7bn Afghan repatriation scheme hidden from the public.

Starmer has successfully deflected much of the criticism on the Tories but the issue has caused a stir among right-wing voters who are desperate for the UK to reduce its intake of migrants.

With an emboldened Reform UK soaring in the polls, the revelation that the government has secretly brought thousands of refugees to the country due to a data breach has proved controversial – even if those refugees actively aided British forces in Afghanistan.

The scandal also comes off the back of a bruising week for Starmer where he was forced to climb down on Labour’s welfare reforms to avoid a government defeat in the Commons.

Labour are almost certainly going to put up taxes in the autumn, which would break their core manifesto commitment.

And, while Starmer’s popularity sinks further, bookmakers are wondering how long he’s got left.

Keir Starmer Odds

A swathe of British bookmakers recently cut their odds on Starmer being ousted from Downing Street between now and the next election. 

He looks likely to see out the year, with a 2025 exit at 6/1 on betting apps.

However, the next three years look tough for the PM. 

He’s now 5/2 (28.6%) to be gone in 2026, and 4/1 on political betting sites to walk in 2027 or 2028.

This is significant because it exposes the lack of faith in Labour’s stability.

Having already faced down one major Commons defeat, Starmer will have to work hard to keep his backbenchers onside.

The problem is, he’s not great at playing politics. 

Starmer is committed to the long game, insisting the UK will be more prosperous in 2029 – the date of the next election – than it is now.

But voters want change now. That’s particularly why they backed Labour into government last summer, and partially why so many people now support Reform. 

Labour aren’t delivering the change promised, so people are flipping to Nigel Farage’s camp. 

Will Starmer Be Replaced?

This leaves Starmer in a really difficult position. 

The electorate aren’t willing to wait four years to see if his economic plan for prosperity works. 

Voters want quick answers now after 14 years of underinvestment from the previous Conservative government.

This is why Labour, when they refuse to increase borrowing or raise taxes, and instead target welfare cuts, have angered so many people.

It’s not what they feel they voted for.

Starmer has already eaten through plenty of political lives. 

Cutting the winter fuel allowance and forcing through welfare reform have proved highly unpopular. 

Meanwhile, the economy is struggling, water companies are polluting rivers, and the cost of living is going up again.

Starmer needs to give voters something to cling onto over the winter, otherwise he risks being alienated from his own party come the spring.

Labour – and many non-Tory supporters – waited 14 years for a centre-left party to return to power, in the hope they would spend wisely and apply targeted taxation on the wealthy.

Starmer, his chancellor Rachel Reeves, and the rest of the cabinet haven’t done this. 

Instead, they’ve slowed everything down, in the hope of securing the centre ground in British politics and keeping the Tories low in the polls.

That bit has worked, but with Reform now soaring and Labour supporters angry, the cost of cutting the Conservatives off at their own game could eventually cost Starmer his job.

It won’t happen this year but all eyes are on 2026.