How Long Will Sir Keir Starmer Last As UK Prime Minister?

Betting sites have shortened their odds on Sir Keir Starmer losing his job in 2026 as he battled to stave off a Labour rebellion over his controversial welfare bill.

The prime minister is trying to push ahead with plans to reform the welfare system and save billions of pounds in taxpayer money each year.

However, Labour MPs argue taking benefits away from those with disabilities is not the way to re-energise the economy and have threatened to kibosh the bill.

Starmer appears ready to climb down on certain areas of the policy but is determined to push it through. 

However, his struggle in spite of a large majority in the Commons means some are seeing this issue as a confidence vote in the government.

Starmer has led the country since Labour won a landslide victory at the 2024 UK election a year ago. His popularity has sunk since then, as he has refused to turn on the spending taps.

Instead, Labour’s hard-nosed insistence on running the economy systematically has caused endless controversy. 

From withholding the winter fuel allowance to rising National Insurance contributions from businesses, Labour are operating an unpopular economic plan right now.

And the dissent among MPs and voters is starting to show on Starmer’s odds, which suggest he has a one-in-four chance of being ousted next year.

Keir Starmer Odds

Indeed, Star Sports is the first UK bookmaker to slash its odds on Starmer’s exit in 2026 from 5/1 to 3/1. The new ultra-low price suggests a 25% probability of the PM leaving Downing Street next year.

The odds of a 2025 exit linger at 4/1 (20%). Meanwhile, the shortest price remains 2029 or beyond – effectively, the next scheduled general election – at 6/4 (40%) with political betting sites.

Those odds don’t read particularly kindly for Starmer, who is also just Evens (50%) to lead Labour into the next election.

The odds reveal a pessimism amongst bookmakers and punters in Starmer’s longevity prospects. And yet, there’s only one way he can lose his job between now and the next election: rebellion.

Will Starmer Be Replaced?

Starmer has successfully faced down small rumbles among the Labour backbenches over the past year, particularly around public spending and the winter fuel allowance. 

He has a loyal cabinet willing to back him, even when Rachel Reeves is taking money from their departments.

And yet, that solidity can’t hold forever. The furore over the welfare bill, with Labour MPs demanding changes so people with disabilities aren’t left without any support, has arguably caught Starmer off guard.

He was prepared for some disgruntlement but not an outright rebellion. The PM spent the hours after the NATO summit negotiating with backbenchers on bill amendments before it goes to parliament.

If Starmer cedes ground on this bill then it could still pass, but carrying less impact on the economy. Reeves would then have to figure out new areas of public saving.

This could harm Starmer’s authority and embolden backbenchers to rebel again in the future. 

Reeves will start planning her Autumn Statement too, and Starmer has a party conference speech to write.

He and Reeves will set the tone for 2026 this autumn, at a point where focus will again turn to the winter fuel allowance and the rising cost of living.

Can Starmer hold his nerve and keep his backbenchers happy? Or will he face further rebellions? One is acceptable, two is manageable, but three or more is worrying.

No wonder betting apps reckon there’s a 25% chance of him being ousted in 2026 – likely via a leadership challenge.

Starmer has flirted with the right over his year-long premiership in an effort to combat Reform UK’s rise in popularity. He’s introduced tougher immigration measures and is seeking to restructure welfare spending.

Perhaps this “tough talking” on benefits is part of the game to wean supporters off Reform and back to Labour. 

Starmer can afford to cede ground to his backbenchers and carry through a less stringent bill, while at the same time getting Reform supporter approval.

But it’s a gamble. Starmer seems determined to push ahead with his plan despite a possible threat of a leadership challenge. 

Whether Labour allow him to fulfil his project is the big question for 2026.