How Long Will Sir Keir Starmer Last As UK Prime Minister?

Betting sites believe Sir Keir Starmer has just a 50% chance of leading the Labour party into the next UK election as pressure continues to mount on the current prime minister.

Starmer has endured a tough few weeks since Christmas as the value of the pound continues to slump in the wake of chancellor Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget.

A decision not to axe public spending initiatives in the budget means the UK’s borrowing costs are now at their highest since before the 2008 financial crash. 

While countries around the world are also feeling the heat, pressure is certainly mounting on Reeves and Starmer to bring confidence back to the UK markets.

The Conservatives are on the attack and support for Reform UK is growing by the day.

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Starmer is currently squeezed in the middle. He can’t cut spending without enraging his party. He can’t raise taxes without drawing anger from the right.

His head-down approach has won him plenty of favours before but it appears as though intervention is needed to calm nerves – and UK bookmakers are watching closely.

They’re unsure whether Starmer will stay the course and last five years as UK prime minister. 

So strong is that uncertainty, in fact, that the bookies reckon there’s a 31% chance he’ll leave Downing Street this year.

Keir Starmer Odds

The current odds don’t look pretty for Starmer. He is less than a year into his prime ministership and sits on a mega majority in the House of Commons.

He’s succeeded in passing through much of the legislation that Labour have brought to the chamber but he’s feeling the heat outside of Westminster.

A biting winter, rising energy costs and creaking national infrastructure is causing a heap of problems for the PM after Labour was elected on an assumption they would steady the ship after years of Conservative chaos.

They’ve done that in some ways but they crucially haven’t addressed the financial realities that were seemingly heading their way. 

If you ever wonder why Rishi Sunak called an election in the summer, then this is the reason. This winter was going to cause a headache for whoever was in charge.

It appears as though Starmer is losing the faith of the British public. His disapproval rating has hit 52%. 

Only 27% of voters like what he’s doing.

No wonder, then, that political betting sites have shifted their Starmer odds. He is now just Evens to be prime minister heading into the next election, which isn’t scheduled until 2029. 

Ladbrokes price him at 4/5 not to lead Labour into the election, which means that’s the most likely outcome.

Can Starmer Survive?

Of course, Starmer doesn’t have to worry just yet. 

He enjoys a big majority and the Labour rhetoric from day one has centred around fiscal frugality. 

They might need to deliver further public spending cuts to ride out the current crisis but they appear open to doing this.

He is sustaining a lot of public flack in his first year, with the hope he can generate prosperity in the long term and theoretically has four more years in office before the next election, so he can bide his time.

Yet, there are signs of cracks. 

He refused to reassure Reeves that her job was absolutely safe over the UK’s current economic woes. If Reeves can’t settle the markets then she could be out.

As we saw in 2022, ditching a chancellor never looks good for a prime minister. Liz Truss lasted a matter of days after she sacked Kwasi Kwarteng in the midst of her disastrous mini-budget.

Sacking Reeves doesn’t cure the issue for Starmer, it just shifts the spotlight onto him. No wonder the bookies reckon he’s in for a tough ride.

The latest odds from Betfred suggest Starmer has a 31% chance of losing his job in 2025, at odds of 9/4. 

He is only 2/1 (33.3%) to still be prime minister in 2029.

That exposes the true lack of confidence in Labour’s leader right now.