How Long Will Sir Keir Starmer Last As UK Prime Minister?
UK betting sites believe Sir Keir Starmer’s chances of being UK prime minister beyond 2026 are dwindling and reckon Labour are on course to ditch their leader.
Starmer’s first year in government has been dogged by economic woes, staff mismanagement and the odd scandal.
Within one week of returning after the summer break, Starmer lost his deputy prime minister Angela Rayner to a tax scandal and sacked US ambassador Peter Mandelson.
He gave his public backing to both figures before axing them within 24 hours.
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No wonder right-wing newspapers have begun calling the PM “Spineless Starmer”, while the polls now rate him as one of the West’s worst leaders.
Still, Starmer sits on a large majority in the House of Commons and there is not a UK election scheduled until the summer of 2029.
One may assume he would be sitting pretty in No 10 even if things were not running smoothly.
The latest political odds suggest Starmer could be ousted before he goes in front of the electorate again.
Keir Starmer Odds
Political betting sites have cut their odds since the Mandelson saga on Starmer being ousted in 2026.
He is now 15/8 to be gone next year, in from 2/1, odds that carry a 34.8% probability.
For context, Starmer is 11/4 (26.7%) with betting apps to leave office in 2029 or beyond.
Almost two-thirds of punters reckon Starmer will not be in power come the next election. He is 1/2 with Ladbrokes to be gone from office before voters get a chance to elect a new government.
This potential outcome is causing havoc in the next UK election odds, as Labour’s popularity sinks under the weight of Starmer’s premiership.
Should Starmer be axed, it is possible Labour will enjoy a reprieve in the polls and odds.
Betting on Starmer is a little tricky for punters right now. They can back him to be ousted (or quit) in 2026 but there is no telling what happens to the wider political odds.
Will Starmer Win The Next Election?
Labour backbenchers are in a bit of a bind too.
Right now they are part of a large majority, the party has actual power for the first time in 14 years, and the Conservatives are polling on 17 points.
Reform UK’s enormous poll surge under Nigel Farage is causing concern.
Starmer has sought to match Farage’s bluster by introducing tough immigration and anti-protest laws that many on the left find abhorrent.
In trying to cling on to the centre ground and challenge Farage, the PM is losing bedrock support from the left.
He has succeeded in pleasing no one, which is why his longevity odds are so bad.
Given the state of the UK economy and the perpetual issues at the top of government, it seems only a matter of time before Labour MPs turn on their leader.
This is why the next UK election odds are not necessarily an accurate reflection on what will happen in 2029.
Right now, it seems unfathomable that Starmer will stay in office that long.
The focus is beginning to shift to who will lead Labour into the next election – and can they succeed against Farage?
Rayner was a viable candidate to succeed the PM but is now in the political wilderness. Yvette Cooper carries too many echoes of New Labour to challenge in an election.
Wes Streeting – the 5/1 second favourite to be the next prime minister behind only Farage – could be the acceptable face of change Labour supporters are yearning for.
The health secretary has a fairly strong approval rating and is adept at arguing against the populist right.
Starmer looks unlikely to win the next election because there is a chance he will not be there to contest it, but Streeting certainly could.
The political betting markets are in for a rollercoaster ride over the next four years.
Do you think Keir Starmer will still be PM by the next election? Let us know in the comments below!
