NCAA Championship Game Predictions and Betting Advice
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March Madness is just one championship game from ending and no one can argue the drama, storylines, and entertainment these 68 teams provided the past three weeks.
Hubert Davis, the first-year coach at North Carolina, can become only the second first-year head coach to win the NCAA championship. Michigan’s Steve Fisher, who led the Fab Five to the title in 1989, is the other.
Let’s look at the analytics that support the plays I have taken to the window for this much-anticipated championship game.
The Over is My Preferred Bet
There are many trends and angles that support the Over/Under in any game and this championship game is no different.
UNC is 26-11 Over the total when playing their second game in a week spanning the past two seasons. They are 11-3-1 Over following a game in which they scored 80 or more points this season, and 10-3 Over following three consecutive games in which they are committing 14 or fewer turnovers in games played this season.
Kansas is 7-1 Over following back-to-back double-digit wins this season, 7-1 Over following back-to-back games in which they shot at least 50% in each of the games in games played this season, and 13-3 Over following a double-digit win this season.
Wall Street Live-In Game Betting
I worked as a Chief Currency Strategist for 15+ years on Wall Street and earlier in my career trading crude oil futures in the pit. Taking my experiences, knowledge, and analytical applications and applying them to live sports betting has proven to be a highly profitable endeavor.
So, I will bet 50% pre-flop (before the game tips off) at the current price of 151.5 points for 50% of my normal 4% bet size.
Based on an options metric in the financial markets called implied volatility, which I tweaked modestly, I can calculate the anticipated scoring range possibilities for this matchup of an NCAA Championship game.
So, I like the Over, and I will look to add 25% of my 4% betting amount at 144.5 points and 139.5 points during the first half of action.
North Carolina Looks Like the Better Team
What Villanova lacked in length to defend Kansas’ David McCormack, North Carolina has more than enough and I see them minimizing McCormack throughout the game.
Then Ochai Agbaji, the stud Kansas leader, will have to be far more involved and creative, and I see the UNC starters and depth off the bench getting that minimized.
Simply said, I see UNC as the better team and the fact that they are the underdog again will allow them to play loose and free and at full strength.
I know that the past four and 11 of the past 16 title winners have been No. 1 seeds, but this UNC team is different than any other non-1-seed team I can remember.
The Tar Heels are on a 12-4 against the spread run since game No. 15 of this season, 14-5 ATS when facing a team that is making at least 45% of their shots in games played in each of their past two seasons. They are 15-6-1 ATS when facing solid ball handling teams averaging 14 or fewer turnovers per game after game No. 15 of the current season.
Kansas is just 2-9 ATS facing defensive teams that are averaging 12 or fewer forced turnovers per game spanning the past two season.
Supporting the upset, North Carolina is 7-1 against the moneyline (making +6.7 Units per Unit wagered) when it makes 31% to 37% of its 3-point shot attempts in a game this season.
The Tar Heels are 11-2 against the moneyline (+10.8 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the past two seasons, and 8-2 against the moneyline (+11.5 Units) in games where both teams score 75 or more points this season.
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