2023 Paris-Nice Stage 4 Race Preview

Date IconLast Updated: Mar 8th, 2023
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2023 Paris-Nice Stage 4 Race Preview
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The battle of the goliaths has arrived. Stage 3 of the Paris-Nice featured an appetizer as Tadej Pogacar dragged his UAE team within 23 seconds of Team Jumbo Visma. Jumbo is stocked with cyclists who can help Jonas Vingegaard in every way. 

This team time trial was different as the time from the first finisher was what counted. Again, the dynamics of the beginning of the race only helped Vingegaard and Team Jumbo Visma so much.

The expected 45+ second margin of victory never materialized. It will be interesting to see what transpires in Stage 4 and beyond as we eventually find our way to Nice on Sunday. Between now and then, there lies plenty of cycling, including climbs, sprints, and more. 

To help with your cycling betting, we look at potential favorites and more for the fourth stage, which spans 164.7 kilometers (102 miles). This stage goes from Saint-Amand-Montrand to La Loge Des Gardes.

Differing Schools Of Thought

Let's throw a monkey wrench into this preview. No one knows what kind of crosswinds will or will not be present on Wednesday. One thing is sure. There will be scattered showers of varying intensity. Temperatures are expected to be a touch chilly too. That plays into the hands of Tadej Pogacar. When the Slovenian wants to make a statement, he typically does.

Again, while Pogacar does not have an army of domestiques and riders like Vingegaard, the Slovenian has cyclists who can surprise. This stage is harder to gauge because the crosswinds could keep a breakaway. Also, the “GC” (General Classification) can take over on the final climb. 

Now, previous middle stages have been this punchy at the end. Let’s be honest. This is not the most challenging climb. The first 60 miles feature rolly terrain susceptible to wind and cold. After that, there are two small ascents (about 3% on average). Those “Category 3’s” are a warm-up. 

The fun here is determining who is on form and remembering those pesky but significant time bonuses. 


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A Preview Of Stage 4 Paris-Nice

Again, this stage is buoyed by the climb to the summit finish at La Loge Des Gardes. The climb is a little over four miles (6.7 kilometers). It comes with a 7.1% average gradient. There are some high kickers in the first half of this ascent. Also, a punchy last 250 meters can make a good springboard for a sprint. This course does flatten out over the final 100 meters.

Between the two smaller climbs and the summit finish, there are descents that, in inclement weather, can prove dangerous. 

Could the Americans break away early? It is possible. Mattias Jorgenson has shown an ability to win stage races, and his form has been exemplary. The same goes for Nelson Powless. These are two riders who can surprise given the variable conditions. Yes, winds could easily gust 30-40+ mph at times.

Everyone hopes for an inevitable Pogacar-Vingegaard showdown. Vingegaard and Jumbo Visma must isolate Pogacar and hope for the best. Dani Martinez, from Ineos, is another long shot climbing solidly and can surprise in adverse weather.  Ah, yes, time for those odds.

The odds are from DraftKings.

Paris-Nice Stage 4 Race Odds

Rider Projected Odds
Tadej Pogacar -165
Jonas Vingegaard +500
David Gaudu +1400
Mattias Jorgenson +1600
Magnus Cort Neilsen +1600
Neilson Powless +2200
Simon Yates +2200

 

Yes, this stage typically takes over four hours to complete. 

The key here is that long shots this year are more worth a look. Powless (USA) is at +2200, and Jorgensen has shortened to +1600. One other wildcard may be another Dane. Watch for Mattias Sjkelmose. Skjelmose showed impressive wattage and climbing ability in some of the earlier races in 2023. Can he race with the top talent? 

Furthermore, this is still the beginning stages of a very long season. On any given day, a rider can get away or surprise in an unexpected sprint to the line. These crosswinds are unknown and can change directions, sometimes turning into a tail or headwind. 

Stage 4 begins at 6:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday and will end before 11 a.m. ET in North America.

Final Words And Predictions

This is not a stage with significant discernible ascents. When trying to figure out who will be whipped from uncertain crosswinds, those are a lot of variables to figure out in a relatively short 100+ mile stage. Our primary pick is Tadej Pogacar in a sprint, with Powless being our long shot if the crosswinds pave the way for an earlier breakaway. 

Get up early and follow us on Twitter for live updates. Thanks for reading!