2023 Paris-Nice Stage 7 Race Preview

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2023 Paris-Nice Stage 7 Race Preview
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The battle of the goliaths arrived on Wednesday. Tadej Pogacar turned the tables on everyone, including the cameraman. He ascended La Loge Des Gardes faster than anyone. Pogacar left Jonas Vingegaard in his slipstream. Then, smartly, he held back a little and pulled away from David Gaudu during the closing 250 meters.

The unexpected 45+ second margin of victory happened in reverse. It will be intriguing to see what happens as the race is now delayed a day. Stage 6 on Friday was postponed because of violent winds. The sixth stage occurs Saturday morning, the seventh on Sunday, and the final on Monday. 

To prepare you for your cycling betting, we take a quick look ahead at this seventh stage, which spans 142.6 kilometers (88.6 miles). This stage goes from Nice to Col de la Couillole.

An Extra Day And Daylight Savings Time

Giving Pogacar and Vingegaard an extra day off is almost unfair. The one thing to take from Stage 4 is that Vingegaard’s Jumbo Visma team is not quite as strong at Paris-Nice. Do not get us wrong. They are far from weak. It is just that TJV is not light years ahead of Team UAE in March, at least. 

The scary thing for the field might be that the Slovenian is learning. Compared to Primoz Roglic, who sometimes needs to know his limitations, Pogacar realizes differing strategies can work. 

This “queen” stage features a punch in the middle and a quintessential end. Let’s be honest. This is not, overall, the world’s fiercest climb. However, riders can quickly distance themselves and others on the GC. Look at what Pogacar did in a few short kilometers during Stage 4.

The fun here is getting this right again. Some riders do not have their best form, as shown here in France.

A Preview Of Stage 7 Paris-Nice

Although the climb anchors this stage to the mountaintop finish at Col de la Couillole, one more Category 1 rise lies. The climb is a little over 11 miles (17.8 kilometers). It comes with a mere 4.6% gradient. That sounds tame by these elite cyclists' standards, but some steeper sections are mixed in. 

There is one great equalizer between this ascent and the summit finish, which may be the headwind. Crosswinds are not likely here, and winds could easily gust from 20-30 km per hour.

Could Mattias Jorgenson pull off a win? Yes, it is possible. As of Friday afternoon, Jorgenson was eighth in the general classification and had been climbing well. Even on Wednesday, he rode his tempo and looked pretty good. It will be challenging, with Simon Yates, Gino Mader, and Roman Bardet expecting to look better on Sunday.

Everyone keeps praying for Pogacar-Vingegaard, part two. Vingegaard and Jumbo Visma must keep Pogacar marked and hope for a break on the final few kilometers, where the elevation kicks up more. The Slovenian’s form is excellent right now. Can the Dane time the wind, right? That does not seem likely, but maybe someone else lower on GC does.

Paris-Nice Stage 7 Race Odds

Rider Projected Odds
Tadej Pogacar -225
Jonas Vingegaard +600
David Gaudu +900
Mattias Jorgenson +1600
Simon Yates +2000
Gino Mader +2000
Roman Bardet +2500

Yes, this stage typically takes over four hours to complete. Pavel Sivakov and Aurelien Paret-Peintre are both long shots as online sportsbooks have them well past +4000. However, they have a slight chance if everyone marks each other and no one pulls away early on the final climb.

The vital part is that a breakaway may succeed. It just depends on Pogacar and Vingegaard. If their teams or even David Gaudu’s squad pushes the pace, it might be a GC day.

Furthermore, Thomas De Gent and Fred Wright figure into this type of breakaway along with Nick Schultz and maybe Hugo Houle. Houle might succumb late on that final climb, much like he did on Wednesday. Maybe, the extra day helps. 

Either way, this expects to be a defining stage, despite its shorter distance. 

Stage 7 begins approximately at 6 a.m. ET on Sunday and will end before 11 a.m. ET in North America.

Final Words And Predictions

This stage is honestly up to Jonas Vingegaard and particularly Tadej Pogacar. The best sports betting apps have Pogacar as a whopping -900 favorite to win Paris-Nice. It is not that David Gaudu and others are being disrespected; this is more based on the current form. If headwinds persist, that will limit gains and arguably make Pogacar’s life easier. He does not have to expend max energy on Sunday.

An interesting risk with the longer mountaintop ascent on Sunday is Simon Yates finishing better than David Gaudu. Gaudu looked great on Wednesday, but can he handle being a marked man? In sunnier weather, Yates can climb with the best in the world. Furthermore, he carries a nice +175 number head-to-head.

The Wauter Poels-Pavel Sivakov matchup is a bit more predictable. Poels likely cracks again before Sivakov (-250) during Stage 7. This will be a day for GC where either Pogacar (-225) or perhaps again a Jorgenson (+1600) steals the show. 

Get an early breakfast and follow us on Twitter for live updates and additional wagers. Thanks again for reading!

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Chris Wassel

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