NCAA Men’s Basketball Previews, Picks, and Predictions for Monday, March 7
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Here is tonight's 3-pointer, college basketball betting advice on three NCAA men's games.
San Francisco vs. Gonzaga
- West Coast Conference Semifinal
- Orleans Arena, Las Vegas
- 9 p.m. ET
The No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs will look to bounce back from their only conference loss of the season when they face the San Francisco Dons in the first semifinal game of the West Coast Conference Tournament tonight. The second game will pit Santa Clara against St. Mary’s at the Pavilion.
The Dons are the fourth seed and are lined as 13-point underdogs after opening as 12-point underdogs.
The total for this game opened at 154.5 points and has remained static except for the Circa, who currently has the total priced at 155.5 points.
The Matchup Situations
The Bulldogs, which closed the season with a loss at St. Mary’s, were one of six Top 10 teams to lose their games on that Saturday — a record for top-10 team losses on any given day of the regular season.
The Bulldogs had clinched the West Coast Conference title and the No. 1 seed in this tournament before the loss, so they were certainly flat, not focused, and were out-muscled by St. Mary’s.
The Dons are coming off an excellent win over BYU by the final score of 75-63 Saturday to advance to this game. Dons coach Told Golden called it one of the programs’ biggest victories in the past 35 seasons.
The Dons won the NCAA National Championships in 1955 and 1956 behind the efforts of two legends and Hall of Famers Bill Russell and K.C. Jones.
Trends and Angles
I am leaning towards a possible wager on Gonzaga and using the first half betting line, currently pricing them as seven-point favorites. Supporting this betting strategy is a highly profitable betting system that has earned an 83-40 against the spread record for 68% winning tickets over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are to:
- Bet on favorites using the first half betting line.
- Favorite has lost to the spread by a total of 24 points over their past three games.
- The underdog has beaten the spread by 45 or more points over their past seven games.
This first half betting angle has earned backers a solid 7-3 ATS result this season and 18-11 ATS over the past three seasons.
I am going to the window with a first-half wager of 3% on a 3,4,5% MAX bet scale, on Gonzaga, using the first half betting line.
Nothern Kentucky vs. Fort Wayne
- Horizon League Semifinal
- Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis
- 9:30 p.m. ET
The Northern Kentucky Norse against the Fort Wayne Mastodons is the second Horizon League semifinal game tonight.
None of the teams in the conference have been ranked in the polls this season, so to get in you have to win this tournament.
The Horizon League ranks 26 of the 32 conferences, based on my power ratings. But, they have the most unique and some of the best mascot names in all of college basketball.
How the Teams Stack Up
Northern Kentucky was the third seed in the tournament at 14-6 straight up in conference play and 19-11 straight up overall and 15-13-1 ATS. They are on an 8-2 run straight up and against the spread over their last 10 games.
Fort Wayne finished in the second spot with a 15-6 straight up conference record and are 21-10 straight up and 19-10 against the spread.
Cleveland State is the top-ranked team in the Horizon after finishing the regular season in tie with Fort Wayne at 15-6 straight in conference play and went 20-9 straight-up and 13-14 against the spread.
It meets Wright State, which went 15-7 straight up in conference play and 19-13 straight up and 13-18 against the spread for the season, in the other semifinal.
Looking at the betting lines and odds at the BetMGM Sportsbook, there are a few opportunities that strike me.
Northern Kentucky is lined as a 1.5-point favorite over Fort Wayne.
I like Fort Wayne in this matchup, with my predictive models projecting a five or more-point win. Given that piece of analytics, BetMGM has alternative lines or winning margins available to wager on.
The Bets to Make in this Matchup
The first bet is a 3% amount on the Mastodons using the moneyline currently priced at +105.
Next, I will use a pizza money sized wager on Fort Wayne winning by 6-10 points, paying back +450, and a second wager that Fort Wayne wins by 11-15 points paying back+775.
Pizza money sized wager is exactly what it implies and are to be no more than $20 for the bettor whose average bet size for a game is $100.
College of Charleston vs. UNC-Wilmington
- Colonial Athletic Association Semifinal
- Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington, D.C.
- 8:30 p.m. ET
The College of Charleston Cougars is coming off a big-time win over Hofstra in the CAA quarterfinals UNC-Wilmington Seahawks tonight.
The Cougars upset Hofstra 92-76 as four-point neutral court underdogs and now find themselves priced as 1.5-point favorites against the Seahawks.
The Cougars are peaking at the perfect time. They have covered the spread in six consecutive games and are on a nice 4-0 against the spread run when facing an opponent that has won 60% or more of their games on the season.
The underdog, though modest in this matchup, has gone 5-1 against the spread in their past six meetings.
The Bet I am Taking to the Window
The Seahawks have won four consecutive games and covered the spread in the last three.
Teams that are on a six or more against the spread win streak, playing a game in March, coming off a double-digit win as an underdog have gone 3-12 straight up and 6-9 against the spread over the past 10 seasons.
Since the Cougars are the modest favorite, I like betting the Seahawks using the moneyline at +110 as offered at the BetMGM sportsbook.
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