2025 Australian Election Betting Odds: Labor And Coalition Neck And Neck

Betting on the Australian federal election is on the knife edge as Labor and the Coalition prepare for a monumental election campaign this year.

The next Australian election must take place on or before May 17 and the polls suggest this will be a tight contest.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese has seen support for his government gradually fade since they won the 2022 election by a narrow margin.

The odds of Peter Dutton delivering a Lib/Nat coalition victory this year have steadily improved, meanwhile, and he is now the frontrunner to win.

The changes in voter preference over the past 18 months has been quite remarkable at a time when Labor have nailed big wins in state elections across the country.

And yet UK betting sites aren’t convinced either side will win the required votes to form a majority government, with the House of Representatives tipped for a fairly even split.

This is causing punters plenty of headaches as they figure out who will win the Australian election. Just over half of all bets currently back a Coalition victory but, it seems, the vote is too close to call.

Australian Election Betting Odds

2022 feels like a long time ago now. Back then, Labor were riding a wave of optimism after securing a hotly-contested election victory that focused on inflation, the cost of living, green issues and the Covid-19 pandemic response.

Political betting sites initially gave Labor a 78% chance of defending their majority in 2025, at odds of 2/7. 

Support for Labor at a federal level has fallen as voters look to the Coalition to deliver economic prosperity. Albanese’s poll lead lasted about a year, even though Labor won state victories in Victoria and New South Wales.

The high cost of living is a real issue for Labor, along with their pledge to improve education access to millions of Australians. 

Coalition Odds Changes

Last year the Labor lost their sparkle as voters flipped to the Liberals in Queensland and Northern Territory. Australia, once almost all red, is now patchwork again.

Labor are currently 6/5 to post the next prime minister – odds that carry a 45.5% probability. That’s alarmingly low when, just three years ago, they were riding so high in the polls.

As for the Coalition, their election odds only began to significantly shrink after The Voice referendum in 2024, which the government lost.

Dutton is campaigning on lower taxes and has pledged to tackle “union militancy in workplaces”. His energy policy would also increase gas production and shift towards nuclear power, in a direct clash with climate advocates.

Australian Election Result Betting

Betting on the Australian election is particularly complicated this year because it’s possible that neither of the two main parties – Labor and the Lib/Nat coalition – win a majority.

A hung parliament is priced at 2/5, which suggests a 71.4% likelihood. Both Labor and the Coalition are 7/4 (36.4%) to form a minority government.

It’s hard to see how Labor does this without the support of the Greens. An incredible 10 independents won seats at the last election and they could make a big difference here, too.

The Coalition are an outside shout at 3/1 to win a majority, which would guarantee Dutton the prime ministership.

However, it seems more likely that Dutton and co. will have to negotiate with other parties to form a minority government that he leads.

Issues For Australian Politics

Australia, like the rest of the world, has endured a post-Covid spike in the cost of living at a time when climate change is beginning to affect trade, and pull resources away from investment.

Daily living costs are the top priority for almost 60% of voters, with improving health services, reducing crime, and tackling climate change also high.

The Coalition parties will likely focus more of their campaign on crime, as this is a trending topic right now. Amazingly, their fall-back issues of taxation and immigration remain fairly low priorities for Australians.

Albanese, meanwhile, can’t afford to give up on Australia’s climate targets. He’s pledged to remain in the Paris Agreement but he’ll ultimately be judged on the economy and housing.

The prime minister says his biggest achievement to date was preventing Australia from sliding into recession during this parliament. But now he has to sell a positive vision for the next one – something that voters can get behind.

Over in the UK, Labour have enjoyed positive ratings for lowering barriers that prevent house building and infrastructure projects. If Albanese can make similar proposals then he can point to this as a route out of Australia’s high cost of living.

Dutton, meanwhile, needs to be careful not to cosy up to Trump-style populism too much. As we’ve seen in Canada and the UK, flying too close to MAGA policies results in a backlash from centrists and galvanises the left.

Betting apps will be watching the campaign closely over the next few months. Both sides have a lot to lose if they make a misstep.