2028 Australian Election Betting Odds: Albanese Boost As Labor Lead Coalition

UK betting sites believe Labor will win a third successive Australian federal election for the first time since the mid-1990s when voters cast their ballots in 2028.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese oversaw a decisive victory in the 2025 Australian election, beating the Liberal-National Coalition to form a majority government.

Since then, the polls have indicated Labor would cruise to another electoral victory were a snap vote to be held tomorrow. 

Albanese’s approval ratings are high and the Coalition is stuck around 13 points behind Labor in the two-party preferred vote.

Australians strongly backed Labor in May 2025, partially as a response to Peter Dutton’s swing towards populism in the run-up to the election, and a fightback against US-style Trumpism.

Bookmakers already pitching ahead to 2028 – the year of the next scheduled election – cannot see past another Labor triumph.

Australian Election Betting

Betting on the next Australian federal election appears to be a done deal already. 

William Hill prices Labor at 2/7 to win the 2028 Australian election – odds that carry a 77.8% probability.

The Lib-Nat coalition, by contrast, sits at 5/2 (28.6%) with political betting sites. That is a big divide in what is effectively a two-horse race for federal power.

Australian Election Odds

Sussan Ley is the new Coalition leader but life has not been easy since she took the post. 

Polls are steadily shifting away from the conservative bloc, while Ley’s approval rating sits on -9.

One of the biggest issues the Coalition has is Ley’s low public recognition. She does not yet carry the same fame as Albanese, which means voters take longer to trust the newcomer.

However, there is some light for the conservatives when digging deeper into the polls.

Data shows that while every territory or state in Australia currently backs Labor over the Lib-Nats, voters are still not satisfied.

A fresh poll shows 50.5% of Australians believe the country is not heading in the right direction under the current government. 

The Coalition is not offering much in response to Albanese’s policy directive but that does not mean voters are fully behind the prime minister.

Who Will Win The Australian Election?

This could cause headaches for Albanese over the coming three years as Ley reshapes the Coalition in preparation for the next election.

A prime minister is judged on their record and, while Albanese successfully pitched himself as the preferred leader over Dutton this year, he may not be so lucky in 2028.

Labor have grabbed the centre ground for now, challenging a rising populist right and keeping the left just about on side. It is a tactic left-leaning governments in the UK and Canada have used, too.

But sticking too resolutely to the centre opens up accusations of neglecting bedrock left-wing support. 

Albanese will have to tread a fine line over the next three years to keep a large majority of Australians on side.

The polls flipped in favour of the Lib-Nats six months out from the last election, only to flip again when Donald Trump’s tariff threat triggered a loss of faith in right-wing parties across Australia.

Albanese and co. cannot rely on the same thing happening in 2028 to scare voters into backing the consistency candidate.

Australians want change, which is why they voted Labor into power in 2022 as the country emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Has change happened yet? The polls suggest voters are dissatisfied with Labor but remain hopeful Albanese will deliver.

That faith may only last so long. If Ley can whip the Coalition into shape, then the odds could even out long before an election is called.