NBA Award Betting Guide: How to Pick NBA Award Winners

MVP

The MVP race for the Michael Jordan Trophy is highly anticipated. The usual suspects are consistently in contention, making it rare for a sudden star to emerge in discussions.

The ideal MVP bet is on a high-scoring star player on an elite team. Here’s why:

Look at Winning Teams

The MVP almost always plays for a highly successful team. When considering a pick, evaluate the team built around the player and its potential to secure a top-3 conference standing. An MVP elevates those around him, propelling his team to a top spot in the conference and league.

Don’t Ignore Storylines

Compelling narratives often influence NBA MVP voters. Stats and standings are important, yes, but an additional "angle" or "storyline" is just as vital.

Consider factors like a star player carrying the load after a teammate's departure, a player ready for superstardom after playoff success, the potential to break an NBA record, or a team on the verge of winning a conference title. The storyline is what often "sells" and garners votes. 

Pick Potential Future Hall of Famers

Unlike other sports, NBA MVP winners are rarely a flash in the pan or come out of nowhere. Since the award's inception in 1956, all but one (Derrick Rose, whose career was altered by knee injuries) are either in the Hall of Fame or active players on track to be inducted. Sustained success is a key indicator for MVP candidates.

Points Matter

While basketball involves more than scoring, a player's ability to consistently score heavily boosts their MVP odds because it signals they carry their team's primary offensive load. An exclusive club of MVPs also led the league in scoring in the same season (Michael Jordan is one of them).

If all else fails, find a scorer.

Sixth Man of the Year

The NBA Sixth Man of the Year award, established in 1983, has seen winners ranging from future Hall of Famers to rookies to league veterans. To be eligible, you must have started fewer than half the games played in a season.

The ideal Sixth Man of the Year bet is on a veteran shooting guard on a playoff-bound team. Here’s why:

Favor the Veterans

While winners are good players, young stars typically find themselves in the starting lineup due to contracts or draft status, making true young bench stars rare. Therefore, most winners are veteran players. 

Wins Matter

An impactful Sixth Man contributes significantly to team victories. In recent years, award winners have consistently been on dominant teams. Since 2018, every Sixth Man of the Year winner has played on a team that went to the playoffs.

Go with Scorers (Ideally, a Shooting Guard)

The Sixth Man of the Year award predominantly comes down to one factor: scoring. Points are the most critical statistic for potential winners.

Since 2000, all but seven award winners were shooting guards.

If your candidate excels in areas other than scoring points, you should place your bet elsewhere.

Rookie of the Year

To win the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award, a player needs the ideal scenario: ample playing time and a supportive cast that helps their statistics without overshadowing them.

The ideal Rookie of the Year bet is on a high draft pick point guard on a poor-performing team who starts and contributes immediately. Here’s why:

Look at the Number of Minutes Played

It may seem obvious, but playing time is critical. Winners typically accumulate significant "counting: stats (total points, rebounds, assists), meaning total minutes on the court are crucial.

Look for a rookie with a clear path to starting and playing substantial minutes, rather than just a rotational role. 

Pay Attention to Point Scorers

More minutes directly translate to more opportunities to score points. Team record and efficiency are rarely primary considerations for this award, as the best rookies often play for struggling teams. High scoring totals are what stand out.

While a rookie center might be a defensive force, he’s unlikely to secure the award; prioritize picks with strong scoring potential relative to the rest of their class.

Study Bottom-Barrel Teams

Rookies of the Year recipients often play for sub-.500 teams, which makes sense when you consider the NBA Draft Lottery. The 14 teams that didn’t make the playoffs are entered into a selection process for the top picks in the draft. The top draft picks are the college players best prepared for NBA success.

Give the Edge to Point Guards

The best rookies are given longer leashes to make mistakes. Typically, those players are point guards. Point guards hold the ball on nearly every offensive possession, leading to more statistical opportunities.

Give an Extra Edge to Top Draft Picks

While there isn't a strict correlation between draft position and ROTY winner, 24 No. 1 draft picks have been named Rookie of the Year since 1952. Beyond that, consider if the player has the potential to become a long-term All-Star.

Coach of the Year

The NBA's Coach of the Year award has been presented since 1963.

The ideal Coach of the Year bet is on a head coach who significantly improved his team's win total from the previous season with a high-scoring roster and at least one star player. Here’s why:

Look at the Number of Team Wins

Coach of the Year winners lead their teams to numerous victories. The team’s standing in the conference is also a strong indicator. You should select a coach whose team is expected to finish at or near the top of their conference.

Don't just find wins; find a lot of them.

Prioritize Teams on the Rise

While winning is important, significant improvement is often what seals the deal. Since 2018, the Coach of the Year's team improved by an average of 16.67 wins from the previous season. That’s a massive jump in an 82-game NBA season.

Target teams that are making a significant leap in performance.

Star Power is Key

While great coaches certainly develop their players, there is typically inherent talent on Coach of the Year teams. You don’t need to "spend too much time digging for diamonds in the rough", as Coach of the Year candidates benefit significantly from having star players.

More Points Give Candidates a Boost

Teams with productive offenses tend to produce Coach of the Year winners. Since 2012, all but two Coaches of the Year had offenses ranked in the Top 10.

While overall good performance is ideal, if a tie-breaker is needed, the offense's performance is often the deciding factor. Having a top scorer on the team is the cherry on top. This offensive prowess generally leads to more victories.

Defensive Player of the Year

Winning the Defensive Player of the Year award remains a significant achievement. Betting on DPOY differs considerably from MVP or Sixth Man of the Year.

The ideal Defensive Player of the Year bet is on a center or forward playing on a top-ranking defense who has already won the award. Here’s why:

Think Big

Big men continue to anchor great defenses and have the most significant impact on that end of the floor, even if their offensive roles are more minor.

No guard has won the award since 1986. Guards typically don't accumulate the "counting stats" like rebounds or blocks, or are more focused on offense. Effective defense often requires significant length, which guards usually don't provide. Consequently, centers have historically dominated the voting.

See Who Has Already Won

The DPOY award is somewhat specialized, with a smaller pool of truly elite defenders. As a result, the same names frequently appear, and winners often come in streaks.

Rudy Goebert has won the award four times in seven seasons, while Kawhi Leonard won back-to-back in 2014 and ‘15, and Dwight Howard had a three-peat from 2009 to ‘11.

Look for Players on Elite Defenses

Team defense is fundamental to winning this award; the best individual defenders elevate their five-man unit. DPOY winners consistently play on elite defensive teams. Since 2003, eight winners have played on No. 1-rated defenses, and 19 have been on Top-3 defenses.

When betting on DPOY, identify a team with one of the league's best defenses. Focus on defensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) rather than just points per game allowed, as the latter doesn't account for game pace.

Narrow your Candidate List to All-Stars

While All-NBA Defensive Teams often feature excellent defenders who may not receive widespread national attention or be primary offensive contributors, the absolute best defenders are typically recognized as All-Stars.

Being considered the league's top player on the defensive end of the court almost always results in an All-Star selection.

Scoring Leader

Scoring in the NBA is on the rise, with increased 3-point shooting and efficient basketball. Picking the scoring champion can be a lucrative wager, especially before the season starts.

The ideal scoring leader bet is on a wing or point guard who attempts 20+ shots per game on a winning team. Here’s why:

20 Attempt Shots is the Magic Number

Since 1984, no player has won the scoring title by attempting fewer than 20 shots per game (Kevin Durant averaged 19.7 in 2011 and ‘12, but that rounds up to 20). Attempting 20 or more shots per game is rare, so the preseason projection or in-season stat should stick out.

If you're eyeing a dark horse candidate for the scoring title, they must be projected to make a significant jump in shot attempts.

Favor Winning Teams

Scoring champions generally play for winning teams, and often for very successful ones. Usually, the best scorers are among the best players, and the best players lead their teams to victories.

Look to Wings & Point Guards

Wings and point guards are the most common positions for scoring champions, as they handle the ball most often. Therefore, they have the most significant impact on the game and lead in scoring.

A key commonality among scoring champions is that they are not just scorers; they are "do-it-alls" for their teams, and those players tend to be guards. Top scorers put the ball in the basket and have it in their hands for most offensive action.

Parlay this Bet with your MVP Pick

A recent trend shows a strong correlation between winning the scoring title and being named MVP. This has happened six times since 2014.

While modern teams often have multiple capable scorers, the overall impact of the best players usually goes beyond just points. This strong trend suggests that your MVP pick also has a solid chance at winning the scoring title.

Most Improved Player

The Most Improved Player award is uniquely vague in its definition, leading to two main interpretations among voters. Some believe it should go to a young player who develops significantly in an expanded role, while others think it's for an older player making an unexpected jump due to a new role or team.

This ambiguity means winners have significantly varied ages, positions, and experiences, making consistent trends difficult to pinpoint. The three key indicators for a Most Improved Player winner are a significant leap in points, All-Star recognition, and team success.

The ideal Most Improved Player bet is on a player having a career-best scoring season who has never been named to the All-Star roster on a winning team. Here’s why:

Compare Season’s vs. Career Scoring

Scoring is central to the MIP award, with winners typically showing a substantial increase in points per game. The Most Improved Player may even be having a career-best scoring season.

When betting, ensure your candidate was not a major scorer in the prior season.

Look for Players Who Have Never Been Named All-Stars

No player has ever won the Most Improved Player award after being named an All-Star. While All-Stars continuously improve, they aren't recognized for MIP.

MIP winners frequently go on to become All-Stars or All-Pros at some point later on in their careers. 

Winning is the Most Important Stat

Like most major NBA awards, team success is crucial for winning Most Improved Player. Since 2005, 15 Most Improved Players were on above-.500 teams, and 12 of them went to the playoffs that season.