NBA Betting Strategies: A Guide to NBA Bet Types & Events
This guide will delve into various NBA betting markets and factors for informed wagering.
What to Know about NBA Total Points Markets
Point totals can be a reliable NBA betting market, especially for new bettors. NBA teams' average point hauls tend to be relatively close. The average difference between points scored and conceded (the winning/losing margin) can tell us much about the betting landscape.
Predicting mismatches is often the easiest way to start betting on total points in the NBA. Tighter contests tend to be more cautious and typically land under the total points markets for the same price.
Betting with regular stakes using this approach is an excellent way to familiarize yourself with the market and evaluate your strategy's success. Once you feel confident, hedging your bets or increasing your exposure in team totals markets can lead to bigger payouts. Experienced bettors find teams that perform well (especially at home).
The key is consistently observing trends and sticking to your proven strategies.
Factors to Consider when NBA Point Spread Betting
The best teams in the NBA are not necessarily the best against the spread (ATS). Simply picking a winning team does not guarantee they will cover the spread.
Find Overperforming Teams
While the adage "good teams win, but great teams cover" is common, a more accurate phrase might be: "Achieving teams win; overachieving teams cover.”
Teams that exceed their preseason expectations often lead the league in ATS records. A winning team that unexpectedly progresses from good to very good, or very good to excellent, is more likely to cover the spread. Teams taking a significant step forward in their development might surprise oddsmakers early in the season, so sportsbooks may not adjust quickly enough to these teams.
The focus should be on teams expected to be good that far exceed expectations, rather than those with only marginal improvements.
Extreme highs and lows are often tempered over an 82-game season, and teams keep games close even after losses. This trend indicates that losing streaks don't always translate to continued failure against the spread.
Don’t Overestimate Home-Court Advantage
Contrary to popular belief, home teams do not hold an advantage in covering the point spread. This suggests that oddsmakers already factor in the home court advantage, making it a toss-up whether the home team will cover.
Compare Travel & Rest Schedules
The NBA has lengthened its season to mitigate travel demands and enhance player health and availability.
It's essential to compare each team’s rest schedule. Giving the advantage to a team with an extra day of rest is a smart move. Similarly, favor a team playing the final game of a densely packed schedule, or one on the tail end of a long road trip, as travel accumulates fatigue.
Watch for Injuries
While oddsmakers account for serious, season-altering injuries in their lines, day-to-day injuries with "questionable" tags pose a challenge because sportsbooks may hedge their lines. The spread can significantly shift once a player's status is confirmed.
The best indicator of a player's status is their participation in the morning shootaround. Team reporters typically provide updates after these sessions, including light shooting, scouting report reviews, and play walkthroughs.
For games on back-to-back nights, it's generally safer to assume a player who played the previous night might be rested, although there's no exact rule. The shootaround provides the most clear indication of the team's lean.
NBA Player Prop Betting
Scoring
Look to "go-to scorers" or players given free rein in the offense, especially if other key players are sidelined. Injuries across the roster can open up significant scoring opportunities for different players.
While high shooting volume can lead to points, consider a player's efficiency, such as field goal percentage and free-throw attempts per game.
Rebounding
Players, particularly Bigs, who log more minutes will likely grab more rebounds. The number of contested rebounds a player has in a game indicates his ability to secure rebounds in traffic, which can help you make an informed prop bet.
Some players excel at offensive rebounding, especially on long rebounds from missed three-pointers, so teams with frequent long-range shooting may have more offensive rebounds. Teams that miss many of those shots can also create more rebounding opportunities for their players.
Assists
Teams that "run, run, run" and have a primary ball-handler directing the offense will likely see higher assist numbers from that player. Identify players who function primarily as distributors within their team's offense. Expect assists to go up for rookies and younger players once they feel more comfortable in the pros.
The number of passes a player makes per game indicates their involvement in playmaking, and the more they pass, the more critical they become to the team’s offense.
Strategies for Betting on the NBA All-Star Game
Despite its uneven appeal to fans and critics, the NBA All-Star Game offers ample betting opportunities outside regular-season matchups. The format changed in 2018, with teams now drafted by the top two vote-getters instead of the traditional East vs. West matchup.
MVP Award
Like the regular season MVP, the All-Star Game MVP almost invariably goes to a current or future Hall of Famer. Most MVPs come from the winning team and were their leading scorer. Don’t get cute with this pick and bet on the big guns for All-Star MVP. A player from the host city or stadium can also receive an extra boost in the voting process.
Point Spread
The new team format, which results in entirely different team compositions each season, makes ATS handicapping more difficult than in the past. The most straightforward approach is to focus on the starting lineups, as these players typically play the most minutes, take the most shots, and are on the court during closing time in close games.
Totals
Since the 2018 format change, there has been a notable shift in All-Star Game scoring, as players have started taking more pride in winning, rather than just nonstop scoring. Take the Under, as this trend of lower scoring, particularly in the second half, is expected to continue.
Slam-Dunk Contest
This is a judged competition where showmanship is as crucial as the dunks. Key factors to consider for candidates include vertical leap, creativity, ability to engage the crowd, and executing never-before-seen dunks. Generally, bigs don't win (with Dwight Howard being an exception), as smaller players demonstrating aerial prowess are often more impressive.
3-Point Contest
While sharpshooters with high percentages and strong composure in the spotlight are essential (especially those named Steph Curry), quick triggers are vital to get off all shots within the one-minute time limit. Watching game film to assess a shooter's release can be beneficial.
However, missing the top-of-the-key 3-pointer can significantly impact a player's time. Since players generally dribble and pass at similar speeds, the better jump shooter should be used as a tiebreaker when making a bet.
