NBA Over/Under Betting: Key Factors & Strategies
When betting on NBA over/unders, you’re wagering whether the game’s total points will exceed the oddsmakers’ set line. In recent years, concepts like efficiency, net rating, and pace have become much better scoring indicators than the traditional box score.
Let’s look at the four most important factors affecting an NBA game’s point total.
No. 1: Study Possessions as an Indicator of Pace
Beyond just points scored or allowed, it's vital to understand the distinct styles of play each team employs. The average number of possessions per team in a game now averages at least 98, though possessions can vary drastically depending on the matchup.
While oddsmakers incorporate this into their lines, the impact of pace can be even more pronounced than how it looks on the surface. A slower team is generally more likely to speed up against a fast-paced team than vice versa.
Therefore, when analyzing the total points, consider how fast or slow you anticipate the game will be played.
No. 2: Take Rest Days into Account
Offenses tend to struggle in back-to-back games—teams playing with one or two days of rest generally average more points per game than those with zero.
The impact of zero-rest days on defensive performance is less pronounced. Teams may allow slightly more points in games with zero rest, but the difference is marginal.
Reduced offensive output and marginal defensive changes lead to slightly lower total points scored in zero-rest games.
No. 3: High-Scoring Teams Go Over
The best offenses in the league tend to take off and score at will, often exceeding the established lines. The average points per game continues to rise, and, while oddsmakers factor in high-scoring teams when setting totals, the rising offensive output makes it challenging for sportsbooks to keep up.
If a high-scoring team is playing in a game, chances are it’s going over.
No. 4: Take into Account the Game’s Referees
For better or worse, basketball is heavily influenced by officiating. Individual referees' styles and tendencies continue to influence game dynamics, affecting both the number of fouls called and the scoring output.
Variability in NBA officiating suggests that bettors should consider referee assignments when evaluating game dynamics. Certain officials' foul-calling tendencies may affect the pace and scoring of a game.
