British Monarchy Referendum Odds Suggest 2024 Vote Unlikely

Date IconLast Updated: 28 Sep 2022
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British Monarchy Referendum Odds Suggest 2024 Vote Unlikely
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A referendum on the British Monarchy by the end of 2024 looks highly unlikely – according to the latest politics betting markets.

The United Kingdom has had a monarchy for centuries but questions have been raised over the validation of a self-anointed head of state in 2021.

A feud between princes William and Harry, and the widespread media attention given to Meghan Markle, has fuelled debate over whether a Royal Family in the 21st century is really necessary.

There has always been an anti-royalist section of society but there is an equally vocal pro-royals movement that can be relied upon to show for royal events, funerals and anniversaries.

Yet it’s not the split between pro-and anti-royal sentiment that has politics bookmakers convinced a referendum on the monarchy won’t be undertaken within the next three years.

Instead, it’s the British public’s new-found aversion to referendums.

Monarchy Referendum Odds

There have been two defining referendums in the UK over the past seven years that have shaped British politics since and will do well into the future.

The first was the Scottish Independence referendum in 2014, which saw Scots vote 55-45 to stay in the UK.

However, persistent support for the Scottish National Party at Scottish and Westminster parliamentary elections means talk of IndyRef2 has never gone away.

Two years after the Scottish vote, the then-PM David Cameron – perhaps buoyed by the IndyRef victory – agreed to put the UK’s membership of the EU to the ballot.

Brexit won by 52-48 and the result has since caused numerous splits across the country on pro and anti-Europe lines.

Would current PM Boris Johnson bow to anti-royalist calls for a referendum on the monarchy? Almost certainly no. And that’s why betting sites with royal specials odds have priced a monarchy referendum by the end of 2024 at 27/1, which suggests a 3.6% probability of it happening.

Of course, with the generally pro-royals Conservative government currently in power until the next election in 2024, it appears highly unlikely the question of a referendum will surface in the near future.

Britain’s View Of The Royal Family

However, that doesn’t mean the country is totally behind Queen Elizabeth II and her set.

The latest YouGov polling data suggests just 61% of Brits think the UK should definitely keep its royal family. The rest either want an elected head of state (24%) or are undecided (15%).

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the strongest support for the royals comes from a demographic of Conservative voters over the age of 65. The Scots, meanwhile, are the keenest to see a referendum take place (33%), narrowly ahead of Londoners (31%).

What’s more, the polling from Brexiteers compared to Remainers offers a glance into why the current Tory government is unlikely to consider a vote on the monarchy. That’s because 78% of those who voted Brexit want the Queen to remain as head of state – and the majority of Conservative MPs were pro-Brexit in the 2016 referendum.

Consenting to a monarchy vote, therefore, would be flying in the face of the majority of Johnson’s supporters.