French Election Betting Odds: Le Pen In Running Vs Philippe Despite Conviction

The best betting sites have priced former prime minister Edouard Philippe as the favourite to win the 2027 French presidential election – but still reckon Marine Le Pen has a chance of winning, too.

Outgoing president Emmanuel Macron will step down from his role at the next election after serving two terms in office.

Macron survived an almighty battle against Le Pen in 2022, but his poll ratings are dire. 

He dodged calls to resign early last December after a no-confidence vote at the National Assembly passed, following the breakdown of his government.

French Presidential Election Odds

Le Pen is now barred from running for president following an embezzlement scandal, although she is appealing the verdict.

French politics has stabilised somewhat in recent months, with Macron ally Francois Bayrou parachuted in as prime minister.

Philippe – who served as PM between 2017-20 – is seen as the continuity candidate to Macron. 

But the polls suggest Philippe will have a hard time fending off National Rally in 2027, whether it’s Le Pen challenging him or someone else.

French Presidential Election Betting

William Hill’s French presidential election odds make for interesting reading when matched up against the polls. 

Philippe is expected to succeed Macron, with Horizons – the party he established in 2021 – supporting the incumbent during the last election.

But he faces a major challenge from the right. National Rally’s leader Le Pen is currently barred from running for office. However, her potential successor Jordan Bardella leads the polls at 31%.

It feels as though this will be another two-horse race between an established centrist figure – Philippe – and a far-right candidate, which is how the 2022 election played out.

At 3/1 with William Hill, Philippe is only slightly ahead of Le Pen (7/2) in the politics betting odds. Were Le Pen not barred from the contest then she would likely be odds-on to win.

Political betting sites are yet to price up Le Pen’s potential successor, which is why we’re waiting for odds on Bardella.

But it’s evident from the odds and polls that National Rally are in a prime position to swoop to presidential power.

Here, we look at the two main candidates for the French presidential election.

French Election Odds: Edouard Philippe (Horizons)

Philippe is well known in French politics and name recognition could be a critical factor in the upcoming presidential election. 

The former prime minister has bided his time as Le Havre mayor since leaving Paris but evidently has his eyes on the top job.

Philippe is closely tied to Macron, which could hurt his election chances if the outgoing president endures a downbeat exit. 

The French economy faces severe upcoming difficulties, while National Rally is cutting through with its anti-immigrant rhetoric.

However, he is a right-winger by nature and is promising “massive” change in France were he to be elected. 

His presence could cull support for the further-right National Rally.

Philippe is polling at around 20%. France’s electoral system means this gives him a fighting chance but it may not be enough to beat National Rally in a second-round stand-off.

French Election Odds: Marine Le Pen (National Rally)

The bookies price Le Pen as the narrow second-favourite to win the French presidential election and aren’t yet countenancing a successor. 

Le Pen will have to win her appeal against embezzlement in 2026 in order to run.

For now, betting apps reckon she’ll run and 54% of punters think she will win the contest.

Le Pen has been a commanding figure in French politics for the last two decades without ever tasting real power. She has influenced far-right movements beyond France’s borders and, having lost to Macron in 2022, was widely tipped to run again in 2027.

Whether she can or not remains to be seen but there is a chink in Le Pen’s armour. 

Democracies around the world have generally voted left in the wake of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

It was notable that the left-leaning Nouveau Front Populaire won most seats in Macron’s snap legislative election in 2024. National Rally and the Union of the Far-Right also saw an uptick in votes.

French politics is becoming polarised and Le Pen sits in one camp. Presidential elections usually favour the centrists because of the voting system, so the National Rally leader needs to be polling well to get over the line here.

Will Le Pen Run For President?

Of course, there’s also the issue of Le Pen’s conviction for embezzlement and subsequent appeal. She cannot run for president unless the Court of Appeal overturns the conviction in 2026.

If she doesn’t win that case then Bardella will almost certainly step into her shoes. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing for National Rally.

Bardella has less name recognition than Le Pen but seems to have wider popularity. He is less polarising than his boss – and that’s what a candidate needs to get through the second round of presidential voting.

Le Pen is desperate to run for president and claims the embezzlement conviction highlights the state’s bias against her and National Rally. But if Bardella can poll better than his predecessor then supporters may not worry about that.

Right now, Bardella leads the polls on 31% – down five points from Le Pen’s last poll ratings before she was convicted.

This gives Bardella a healthy lead over Philippe, while the left-wing Melenchon is on 13%.

Who Will Win The French Election?

It’s almost impossible to call the French presidential election two years out from the vote. 

Philippe leads the odds but only because Le Pen is barred from running and her successor won’t be confirmed until we hear the result of her appeal in 2026.

If Le Pen successfully appeals her conviction then her odds will collapse and her poll ratings could soar.

If she doesn’t, Bardella is still in a strong position to challenge Philippe.

However, National Rally will need wider support than their base to push their candidate over the 50% line. French presidential elections run over two rounds, with voters able to choose fresh candidates.

This helped Macron in 2017 and 2022, when he narrowly won the first round before cruising to second-round victories on both occasions.

Bardella could suffer the same fast as Le Pen by not gathering enough wider support to tip over 50%. 

And yet, he may have a better chance of doing this than his boss, considering she is such a polarising figure in French politics.