Next Chancellor Odds: Pat McFadden Tipped To Replace Rachel Reeves

Betting sites have crushed Rachel Reeves’ odds of being the next cabinet minister to lose their job, but the race to be the next chancellor is not clear yet.

Reeves appears to have lost authority within government after Labour rebels overturned much of her welfare reform plans.

The chancellor wanted to deliver £5bn worth of welfare cuts as a reward for not raising income taxes or borrowing.

However, Reeves, who insists on not spending more than the government’s revenues, despite dealing with a £22bn black hole passed over by the last Conservative government, is hanging by a thread after the unpopular legislation was toppled.

It comes after she was forced to backtrack on winter fuel allowance payments after another showdown with Labour backbenchers.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer refused to confirm that her job was safe at PMQs, and speculation is that she could be axed before a summer reshuffle.

Rachel Reeves Odds

The latest politics odds suggest Reeves is likely to be sacked. William Hill cut her odds on the next cabinet minister to leave office from 5/1 to 5/4 favourite after the Commons showdown over welfare spending.

That suggests a 44.4% likelihood that it will be Reeves who gets the boot first.

Other contenders to leave Starmer’s cabinet next include Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, and culture secretary Lisa Nandy.

Next Cabinet Member To Leave Betting Odds:

Kendall (5/1) is in a particularly tricky position after championing Labour’s original welfare bill, only to see it change.

Therefore, it looks like a two-horse race to see who will lose their job first or quit before they’re pushed.

And 79% of punters have so far backed Reeves to go next.

Will Reeves Be Sacked?

Starmer is facing a big problem with his chancellor. The pair helped win the 2024 UK election on a pledge to stabilise Britain’s economy and get it motoring again.

However, the narrative turned sour shortly after the election victory when Reeves revealed the state of the country’s finances left over by the Tories. 

She had already established her fiscal rules about not borrowing to cover day-to-day spending.

Reeves made that pledge out of fear that the bond markets would tank if Labour turned on the spending taps – something that brought down Liz Truss after her disastrous mini-budget in 2022.

This has left Reeves in a near-impossible position. Labour insist they won’t “tax working people”, but public services are already stretched. The NHS has been at breaking point for years.

People voted for Labour in the hope they’d invest in public spending, but Reeves is yet to do so significantly.

So, while she and the Labour cabinet court international investment – the golden goose that will supposedly haul the UK out of its economic slump – Reeves has to find money from somewhere.

Unable to raise income tax, she’s cut welfare and things like the winter fuel allowance. 

She’s also increased business National Insurance contributions, tweaked inheritance tax levels for farmers, and pulled a few other “levers”.

But the optics of slashing welfare provision to the country’s most in-need people has been a disaster. The result: Reeves is on the ropes. 

She’s lost allies in government and across the backbenches and is being mocked by opposition parties. She risks being totally isolated.

Next Chancellor Of The Exchequer Betting Odds:

Cabinet minister Pat McFadden is the early Evens favourite to replace her (45.5% likelihood), although the bookies have been shifting their odds furiously in the hours since the revised welfare bill passed.

Chief Treasury Secretary Darren Jones is also in the running at 13/2 with politics betting sites, while Torsten Bell’s 6/1 price has been slashed in just a few hours.

Reeves could see out the storm. She has an autumn statement to prepare for, where Labour members will be desperate to see green shoots of progress. 

If the economy improves over the summer, then perhaps she’ll cling on until then.

But with Starmer likely to undertake a summer reshuffle, it’s hard to see how Reeves survives. 

There will come a moment when she starts to harm Labour’s electability – and at that stage, Starmer will have to act.