Who Will Win The 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination?
JD Vance is the clear frontrunner to be the Republican presidential nominee for the 2028 US election – but betting sites believe Donald Trump has a stake in the race too.
Vance is Trump’s vice president and has made absolutely clear his loyalty to the businessman.
He appears in the perfect position to succeed Trump and lead the Republicans into the next election, when Trump completes his second – and supposedly final – term in office.
Yet plenty of Republicans are eyeing the top job, and some big names from the 2024 race are expected to contest this one, too.
Those prospective candidates are causing bookmakers to rethink how they establish their 2028 Republican presidential nomination odds this far out from the primaries.
Indeed, some even think Trump himself will seek an unprecedented third term.
Republican Presidential Odds
Political betting sites have yet to launch their GOP nominee odds. However, they’ve established who is most likely to be the next US president – and it’s good news for Vance.
The vice president leads the presidential odds by a mile right now, thanks to an expectation that he will succeed Trump.
However, plenty of Republican figures are floating around in the background, and their odds will collapse once they enter the race.
Vance isn’t guaranteed the party nomination. Yes, he may be close to Trump and have widespread MAGA approval, but the party’s perception of Trump could be very different in a few years.
We’ve seen recently how the president has tested the GOP with his new spending bill that adds trillions of dollars to the national debt – something most Republicans would baulk at.
There is also a MAGA subset determined to learn more about the Jeffrey Epstein files, which has Trump in a bind.
Trump’s professional relationships rarely last too long, either. Just ask Elon Musk.
So, while Vance may be the favourite now, he may not be the flavour of the month come spring 2028, when the GOP primaries begin.
Here, we look at the top-four candidates to win the Republican presidential nomination, based on the latest William Hill odds on who could win the 2028 election.
JD Vance
At 5/2, JD Vance is sitting pretty at the top of the presidential election odds.
No previous candidate running for a first term has ever had odds this short, three years out from the election. No wonder he is also the favourite to win the GOP nomination.
Vance is in an enviable position. He’s helping shape America in Trump’s image, and if the country is more prosperous in 2028 than it was in 2024, then he'll score that as a big win.
He’s also earning huge name recognition through regular media appearances, which is crucial in US politics.
And, perhaps most importantly, he’s likely to get Trump’s support to run for president.
Trump’s influence on the Republican party is so huge that whoever he backs will almost certainly be the nominee.
Vance is working to ensure he gets that backing.
Donald Trump
Yet, there’s no guarantee Trump will not upend the US Constitution and seek a third term.
He has dismissed the idea in the past, but Ladbrokes and other betting apps are still betting on it.
Repealing the 22nd Amendment would be controversial but not totally out of character for Trump. If he feels there isn’t a natural successor to his administration, he may seek to run again.
At 8/1 to win the 2028 election, William Hill evidently thinks it could happen. Trump remains more likely to secure a third term than any Democrat is to win the presidency in 2028.
Donald Trump Jr
If you can’t run, why not keep it in the family? Donald Trump Jr has previously said “maybe one day” he will run for the Oval Office. Well, bookmakers reckon that day could come in 2028.
Trump Jr has no frontline political experience and works for the Trump Organisation.
He played a core role in his father's re-election in 2024, advising Trump Sr to ditch mainstream media interviews in favour of light-hearted, content-friendly podcasts and YouTube shows.
It worked, as Trump surged to victory over Kamala Harris. If Trump Sr can’t run again, would he give “Don Jr” his blessing?
Perhaps, which is why William Hill recently cut its odds on Trump Jr winning the presidency from 20/1 to 16/1. That’s still a long way off Vance, but Don Jr’s odds are trending in the right direction.
Ron DeSantis
Would Ron DeSantis really run again after the bruising he suffered in the 2024 GOP primaries? The bookies certainly think so.
DeSantis tried to out-Trump Trump in 2024 and sensationally lost. The Florida governor was effectively forced into line and begrudgingly backed Trump for the presidency.
Since then, DeSantis has kept relatively quiet and focused his energies back on Florida. Yet he doesn’t have a good relationship with Trump.
Recent polling suggests DeSantis isn’t even on 10% to win the presidential primary in 2028. Don Jr and Vance are way ahead of him.
But DeSantis offers something different to Trumpism: an opportunity to bring centrists and traditional Republicans back into the fold, even if he can flirt with the extremes at times.
If DeSantis plays his cards right, he could end up in a one-on-one stand-off against Vance.
If the Trump project come 2028 is believed to have failed, then DeSantis would have the upper hand.
At 25/1, he seems a good outside bet right now to win the presidency.
