Canadian Election Odds 2025: Carney Tipped For Liberals Majority On Eve Of Vote
Betting sites believe Mark Carney will lead the Liberal Party to Canadian election victory on Monday as the polls suggest a narrow majority for the sitting prime minister.
YouGov’s MRP suggests the Liberals will gain 182 seats to the Conservatives’ 133, which would secure Carney a 21-seat majority.
The polls signify a complete U-turn from the voting intention of most Canadians recorded back in the winter, when the Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre was cruising on a 25-point lead.
All that changed when Justin Trudeau announced he was quitting as prime minister and Carney was parachuted into the job before calling a snap election.
Online bookmakers now reckon the Liberals have an 87.5% chance of winning the most seats on Monday, April 28 and their odds are shrinking by the day.
Canadian Election Odds
Indeed, the latest Canadian election odds on politics betting sites make good reading for Carney.
BetMGM price his party at 1/7 to win the most seats in parliament, while the Conservatives are now out at 15/4 (21.1% probability).
The odds reflect the latest polls. YouGov expect the Liberals to win 183 seats to the Conservatives’ 133. The New Democratic Party (NDP) – once a viable third runner in this election race – could be all-but wiped out.
The odds have totally flipped from the winter, when the Conservatives were 1/20 to win the election. Trudeau’s exit and Carney’s entry to frontline politics have turned things around for the Liberals.
Carney’s stardust isn’t the only reason why the Liberal Party have suddenly become electable again.
Much of the 2025 Canadian election campaign has focused on the country’s response to Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
The tariffs have stung Canada and Mexico hard. Carney has put up fierce resistance, insisting Canada won’t be bullied by their neighbour.
Perhaps most importantly, he has used the trade war with the US to trigger a fresh sense of progressive nationalism in Canada, one that urges people to positively 'buy Canadian', rather than negatively stoke division.
Canadian Election Odds 2025: To Win A Majority
Party | Odds | Bookmaker |
Liberal Majority | 1/2 | |
Liberal Minority | 7/2 | |
Conservative Minority | 6/1 | |
Conservative Majority | 8/1 |
Poilievre, by contrast, has been accused of cosying up to Trump. His 'Canada First' stance resonated when the Liberals weren’t offering an alternative.
Now Carney has his own nationalist movement, Poilievre has been squeezed out. It's being billed as the 'Maple Leaf Vs MAGA election'.
Not that the Conservatives are totally out of the race just yet. The polls suggest a possibility of no party securing a majority, which could give Poilievre a sniff at power if he can join forces with other parties.
Coral price a Conservative minority government at 6/1.
Who Will Win The Canadian Election?
With just days to go before the election, it looks increasingly likely that Carney will get over the line and secure a majority.
Polls suggest 50% of Canadians believe the country’s economic relationship with the US is one of Canada’s top three priorities, and that 41% believe Carney is better suited for the task, compared to 26% for Poilievre.
Meanwhile, advanced voting has already begun and shattered the previous record. More than seven million Canadians have already cast their votes.
Carney and Poilievre are scrambling for an ever-dwindling number of undecided voters who may still turn the election one way or the other.
Poilievre’s big focus is on the cost of living and his big priority is cutting government spending.
The problem is, when Trump is doing just that across the border, Canadians are far less open to the policy.
Equally, as the US rows back its climate commitments, Poilievre and Carney have been trying to work out their environmental stances.
Poilievre plans a major expansion in oil and gas. Carney is trying to have it both ways, repealing Canada’s consumer carbon levy but also championing the renewables industry.
It’s fair to say Carney has the centre ground when it comes to this election and Poilievre can’t win it on conservatism and right-wing populism alone.
The bookies reckon Poilievre has been squeezed at just the wrong moment. Don’t be surprised if Carney’s odds continue to fall until election day.
How The Canadian Election Works
Canadians will vote in the next federal election in April to appoint a new parliament and, in turn, a new prime minister.
Canada’s House of Commons is made up of 343 seats, so a party needs 172 at least to govern as a majority.
Candidates stand for election in one of Canada’s 343 constituencies. These are based on population and can range from overseeing 116,000 people to just 36,800.
Members win a constituency if they gain more votes than anyone else. The first-past-the-post system is also used in the UK and usually favours the bigger political parties.
