Canadian Election Odds 2025: Conservatives Ahead As Trudeau Quits As PM

Betting sites have reacted to the news Justin Trudeau is quitting his role as Canada’s prime minister by slashing the rival Conservative party’s odds of winning the 2025 Canadian election.
Trudeau looked on course to lose the upcoming election at any rate following a disastrous parliament for his governing Liberal party.
The PM has failed to reverse his disappointing personal approval ratings and has blamed party infighting for his early exit.
“I'm having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in [that] election,” said Trudeau.
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Polls indicate that Canadians will vote for the Conservatives later this year and the Liberals could even be ousted as the main opposition party.
Political betting sites were already predicting a big win for Pierre Poilievre, who needs 172 seats to secure a majority.
And now it looks inevitable that the Conservatives will return to power in Canada and claim an electoral victory for the first time since 2011.
Canadian Election Betting Odds
Bookmakers had already placed the Conservatives on a clear path to victory before Trudeau confirmed he would quit as Liberal leader.
Trudeau has prorogued parliament and will stay on as prime minister until his successor is found by March.
He was never going to secure another term in office. BetVictor had priced the Conservatives at 1/10 to win the election, with Ladbrokes offering 5/1 on a Liberal triumph.
Canadian Election Odds 2025: To Win A Majority
Party | Odds | Bookmaker |
Conservatives | 1/20 | |
Liberal | 7/1 | |
New Democratic | 25/1 | |
Bloc Quebecois | 100/1 | |
Green | 200/1 |
The gap between those odds has widened even more now. The Conservatives are 1/20 to win the 2025 Canadian election – odds that carry a 95.2% probability. The Liberals are 7/1 (12.5%).
Meanwhile, New Democratic leader Jagmeet Singh is 25/1 with Ladbrokes to become the next prime minister.
That seems unlikely but the centre-left party is polling neck-and-neck with the Liberals.
If Liberal voters flee the party now that Trudeau has quit, perhaps they’ll end up supporting the New Democrats.
Who Will Win The Canadian Election?
The polls, however, suggest that the Conservatives will cruise to victory at this election.
Poilievre’s party has opened up a 30-point lead over the Liberals and are pushing for 50% of the electorate.
That could see them secure more than 200 seats, which would give Poilievre plenty of authority to roll out his vision for the country.
Indeed, it wouldn’t be a surprise if their odds fall even further.
The election will take place on October 20 if not before.
The Liberals might even choose to bring the date forward so as to limit the damage that’s coming their way – in much the same way the Conservatives cut their losses under Rishi Sunak in the UK.
Who Will Replace Trudeau?
However, there is a small glimmer of light available to the Liberals.
The prospect of a new leader could, in theory, breathe fresh life into the party. Perhaps they’ll become electable again, now Trudeau is out of the picture?
Chrystia Freeland appears a genuine choice. The former deputy PM quit in December following a rift with Trudeau’s team.
Her exit was a big blow for Trudeau, and is one of the reasons the prime minister has surrendered the party leadership.
Former central banker Mark Carney, who has also served as head of the Bank of England, is another option. He’s said to be interested in the post and has experience navigating organisations through choppy waters.
With Donald Trump about to enter the White House, Carney could be a shrewd option.
How The Canadian Election Works
Canadians will vote in the next federal election in 2025 to appoint a new parliament and, in turn, a new prime minister.
Canada’s House of Commons is made up of 343 seats, so a party needs 172 at least to govern as a majority.
The Liberals have failed to do this in the last two elections.
In 2025, the Conservatives are expected to be the biggest party and should comfortably secure a majority.
Candidates stand for election in one of Canada’s 343 constituencies. These are based on population and can range from overseeing 116,000 people to just 36,800.
Members win a constituency if they gain more votes than anyone else. The first-past-the-post system is also used in the UK and usually favours the bigger political parties.
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