Next US President Odds: Are Early Favourites Too Short In The Betting?

We are still almost three years out from the next US presidential election, yet already politics betting sites report very strong favourites in the two main nominee markets. 

JD Vance is a best-priced 4/5 (Betfred) for the Republicans, while Democrat Gavin Newsom’s odds have crashed to just 7/4.

Given the length of waiting time, potential for wrong-turns, ruinous scandals and emergence of strong rivals, such odds feel prohibitively short. 

Recent world politics has certainly produced plenty of betting upsets. Let's look back at recent presidential primaries to gauge how well early favourites fared, and get a feel for how these particular races might pan out.

2028 US Republican Nominee Odds: 

Last Five US Presidential Primaries

2024: Donald Trump won easily for the GOP, but was usurped in the betting by Ron DeSantis around this stage, who went odds-on. Kamala Harris was a 33/1 outsider on betting sites to be the Democrat nominee heading into the June 2024 TV debate which hastened Joe Biden's retirement.

2020: Two alternative Democrats trailed at odds-on for their nomination before losing to Biden, who had drifted to 14/1 prior to a critical win in the South Carolina primary. President Trump was incumbent and never faced a serious challenge.

2016: Hillary Clinton dominated the Democrat race and never came close to ceding favouritism to sole rival Bernie Sanders. Trump opened as a 33/1 outsider for the Republican nomination, as did runner-up Ted Cruz. Early hot favourite Jeb Bush survived just two primaries.

2012: Mitt Romney was never far off favouritism but at least seven different people held pole position at some stage of a crazy cycle for the GOP. President Obama ran unopposed.

2008: Obama overturned an odds-on favourite in Hillary Clinton, in what had effectively become a match by the start of the primaries. On the GOP side, multiple favourites flopped before John McCain came through, having earlier been on the verge of quitting.

Name Recognition Seems Critical

All five examples demonstrate the potential for races to transform, and opportunity to find good value bets at big odds. 

However, another common theme is the dominance of obvious, well-known candidates whom one could easily have identified a long way out. 

Besides Trump - an outlier in multiple respects but certainly not lacking in name recognition - each race tells a story which was fairly predictable.

Perhaps a better question regarding Vance and Newsom is therefore not whether they will ultimately win, but merely whether they can last the distance in this marathon contest. 

If so, only a few alternatives are likely to reach serious contention and these odds may ultimately go much shorter.

2028 US Democrat Nominee Odds: 

Will Vance’s Popularity Survive Until 2028?

As VP to Trump, who we assume cannot legally run again, Vance's chance is obvious. He is polling a massive 27% ahead of nearest rival Donald Trump Jr, with nobody else up to 10%. That obviously reflects the broad popularity of this administration with GOP primary voters. 

He seems absolutely certain to run again unless Trump can somehow defy the constitution.

VPs don't have a great record, though. Harris only became the nominee due to an unplanned, late emergency. Mike Pence finished nowhere. Biden didn't run in 2016 when his vice presidency ended. The last VP to move straight to the presidency was George HW Bush in 1988.

The logical explanation is that reputations deteriorate in office. With Trump's approvals on the floor already, the final three years of his term don't bode well. If polls heading into 2028 show Vance trailing likely Democrat opponents, would the party think again?

Newsom’s Poll Numbers Eyecatching

Newsom, meanwhile, can take positive signals from that history of early Democrat favourites. All finished in the top two or retired (Biden), to be beaten or replaced by the obvious alternative.

Given the early stage, Newsom's best odds of 7/4 feel incredibly short, but are they really? The strength of his early position should not be underestimated. 

The California Governor averages around 23.4% in polls which include at least 50% of non starters or don't knows. His only close challenger is Harris - an old ally from California whose position is inevitably inflated by name recognition - with the next best in single figures. 

Newsom has vast resources to run a strong campaign, which is effectively under way with frequent, smart trolling of Trump online. 

Previous spats with DeSantis also helped him build a nationwide following. He is a good communicator who already looks credible as a presidential candidate.

In the next phase of this marathon, big names will withdraw - perhaps Harris or second favourite Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who may prefer the US Senate race in New York. 

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The 25% currently undecided will start picking sides. Newsom is sure to pick up some transfers. 

To reach anything in excess of 30%, particularly 35%, heading into an open primary is an extremely formidable position. Don't underestimate it.

Who will win the Republic and Democrat nominations for 2028? Let us know your thoughts in the comment box below!