2028 US Election Odds: Vance and Trump Lead Shapiro In Latest Betting

UK betting sites believe JD Vance is the clear frontrunner to win the 2028 US election and even reckon Donald Trump has more chance of securing a third term, compared to any top Democrat.

Trump and Vance are currently reshaping US politics, having beaten Kamala Harris and Tim Walz at the 2024 election last autumn.

The Republicans have a majority in Congress and Trump’s administration is bringing forth a swathe of changes to America’s domestic and international agenda.

Trump hopes that, come 2028, America will be a more prosperous place and the Republican party will stroll to electoral victory.

And yet, the bookies aren’t sure who will run for the GOP beyond Vance or his boss Trump. In fact, while Vance is the favourite to win the next election, the Republican talent pool seems alarmingly shallow right now.

The Dems, meanwhile, appear to have three core candidates ready to take on the MAGA machine. The only problem for them is no one thinks they can win. 

2028 US Election Betting

The latest US election odds certainly read well for Vance. The vice president has made his mark already and is one of the most recognisable faces in American politics.

We’re still more than three years out from the next election and there are midterms to come in 2026. Yet the bookies seem confident that a Republican will be favourite to claim victory, whoever it is.

Right now the GOP are Evens to win the 2028 election, with the Democrats at 6/5 outsiders according to betting apps.

But who is best positioned to succeed Trump – or will the incumbent seek a third term himself? Here are the latest 2028 betting odds from UK bookmakers.

2028 US Presidential Elections Odds 

2028 US Election Odds: JD Vance

Vance is the obvious candidate to win the 2028 US election. The vice president was initially a rogue choice when added to the Trump ticket in 2024. But he has shown absolute loyalty to the president ever since.

Vance is emerging as the next face of MAGA. If Trump steps away from the presidency quietly in 2028 then Vance will take up the mantle.

Bookmakers 10bet price Vance at 5/2 to win in 2028 – those odds carry a 28.6% probability. 

That might seem quite low but at this stage of the election cycle, being priced at 5/2 with politics betting sites is a good sign.

Vance will have to be nimble over the next few years, though. Americans usually vote with their wallets, so if Trump’s economic policies fail then Vance will struggle to convince voters to back a continuation of the MAGA administration.

If Vance is able to argue Americans are more prosperous in 2028 than they were in 2024 then he should have a strong platform, especially in the swing states.

2028 US Election Odds: Donald Trump

Bookmaker William Hill are offering odds of 9/2 on Trump winning a third term. 

He’d need to repeal the 22nd Amendment to do this – a move that would prove hugely controversial. 

Trump isn’t shy of controversy, though, and the bookies certainly reckon it’s a possibility.

If Trump could run for a third term then he probably would. He hasn’t shied away from the concept and it’s an issue that gets talked about on a monthly basis.

However, he’d need a strong hand in order to overturn the US Constitution. Having a Republican majority in Congress would be essential. 

Punters are therefore likely to keep an eye on the 2026 US midterms before deciding whether or not to back this eventuality.

Amazingly, the latest Trump odds suggest there’s a one-in-four chance the president doesn’t complete his second term, let alone target a third.

2028 US Election Odds: Josh Shapiro

Josh Shapiro is the joint-best priced Democrat to win the 2028 US election, at odds of 12/1. 

His odds have recently come in, as Democrats figure out who to rally behind.

Shapiro is governor of Pennsylvania – one of the major swing states – and this certainly works in his favour. 

Harris overlooked him as a VP candidate last year, perhaps to her detriment.

Shapiro is well placed to run for the presidency. He is currently focused on state politics and doesn’t have to wade into the national debate. 

He’s building his base and his brand. Score a couple of political goals at state level and he’d have the credibility to run in a national election.

He’ll almost certainly be an early entry into the Democratic primaries and isn’t tarred with the Biden brush. Of all the Democrats, he’s probably the one the GOP fear most.

2028 US Election Odds: Gavin Newsom

Also at 12/1 is Gavin Newsom, who arguably has a harder route to the presidency than Shapiro. 

That’s because he’s already in Trump’s sights. Newsom, as governor of California, is butting up against the Trump administration a lot right now.

Charismatic and well liked in California, Newsom’s biggest struggle will be convincing those in swing states that he’s the figure to lead the country forward. Harris, a Californian, failed to do just that.

Newsom has taken aim at the Democrats too, arguing that the party needs to change. He’s trying to position himself as a change candidate for the Dems.

Will it work? 

The bookies reckon he has a chance to be the Democrat candidate but beating Vance, Trump or whoever runs for the Republicans will be difficult for a Californian who already has a history battling the current administration.

2028 US Election Odds: Pete Buttigieg

Once the clear frontrunner to win the Democratic candidacy in 2028, Pete Buttigieg is now an outsider in this race. 

He was very close to Harris during the 2024 campaign and regularly went out to bat for the Dems.

He is not planning to run for Michigan’s open Senate seat, which seemingly paves the way for a presidential push.

The problem for Buttigieg is his closeness to the Biden administration. The former transportation secretary will find it harder than Newsom or Shapiro to produce a narrative that swing voters will get behind.

BetVictor have set Buttigieg’s odds of winning the 2028 presidency at 16/1. That’s a wide price but there are some positives for the 43-year-old. 

For a start, he’d probably have support from key Democratic figures were he to run for president. That could unlock financial backing, which may nudge him ahead of Shapiro and perhaps even Newsom.

Buttigieg is also the most media-savvy of the three top Democratic candidates and is willing to engage on right-wing platforms. 

So long as he can detach his name from Biden and Harris, it’s possible to “win” the centre ground in 2028 and beats a populist like Vance to the presidency.

2028 US Election Odds: Best of the Rest

Bookies don’t think any Republican bar Vance or Trump stands a chance of winning the 2028 election. 

Tulsi Gabbard is way out at 33/1, while Ron DeSantis is 20/1. Both need Trump’s grace to even consider running.

Nikki Haley, the most vocal opponent of Trump during the last Republican primaries, sits at 40/1 with BetVictor. If the Republicans find they need a non-MAGA candidate three years from now then her odds could come in fast.

As for the Democrats, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer is a good outside shout at 20/1 but is more likely to be a VP pick for one of the party's three main candidates. 

Michelle Obama still floats around at 25/1 despite insisting she has no desire to move into frontline politics.

As for Harris, she is now 50/1 with Betfred to win the 2028 US election. It seems highly improbable that she would run after suffering such a heavy defeat to Trump last time out.

When Is The 2028 US Election?

The 2028 presidential election will take place on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. It is almost certainly another race between the Republican and Democratic parties.

Donald Trump will not be allowed to contest the 2028 US election, unless he overturns the 22nd Amendment, because he is serving a second term as president. Instead, JD Vance is the frontrunner to succeed him on the GOP ticket.

As for the Democrats, Josh Shapiro and Gavin Newsom are the two big names that politics betting sites believe will run for president.