UK Politics Odds: How To Bet On The Budget
The Budget is always one of the most important set-piece moments on the UK political calendar, and that has rarely been truer than in 2025.
This year, it is more than merely a statement of the nation’s finances, government spending plans and priorities.
It has huge, perhaps grave, implications for the immediate future of the chancellor, prime minister and even the government.
Rarely will a chancellor arrive at the dispatch box under greater pressure than Rachel Reeves.
Throughout the next 24 hours, expect most betting sites to price up special bets for the occasion.
For example, Star Sports are offering a ‘word bingo’ market, with odds on Reeves saying various specific phrases such as “stability”, “fairness” and “Labour values”.
Reeves Odds-On To Leave In 2026
The more significant action revolves around Reeves’ future and her successor as chancellor of the exchequer.
In the betting on the year of her departure, 2025 is a best-priced 2/1 with Ladbrokes.
An astonishingly low quote, considering we are almost in December.
That reflects the almost unanimous expectation that this Budget will not be well received.
Rachel Reeves Exit Date Odds:
Year | Odds | Betting Site |
2026 | 4/6 | |
2025 | 2/1 | |
2027 | 12/1 | |
2028 | 20/1 | |
2029 or later | 20/1 |
*Odds correct at time of publication - 2pm 25/11/25.
Labour’s manifesto promised not to raise taxes, which seems likely to be broken, with savers reportedly set to be hit, along with owners of houses exceeding £2million. (Such measures are always well trailed to the press via leaks, even if not confirmed yet).
It will frankly be impossible, given the national and international economic conditions, for Reeves to satisfy everyone, or many outside of Labour’s rapidly shrinking support base.
She is expected to lift the two-child welfare cap, which will please Labour MPs' supporters who want to prioritise ameliorating child poverty, but is less popular among the wider electorate.
Whatever measures she announces, an overwhelmingly hostile press will denounce Reeves, along with Labour and Keir Starmer. Take that to the bank.
2025 Looks Way Too Short
Whether that reality legitimises odds of 2/1 about her leaving post in the last few weeks of 2025 is quite another matter.
Presumably, the logic here is that the Budget will be so unpopular and discredited that the bond markets will take fright and spark panic.
Memories of Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget, immediately after taking on the role in 2022, remain fresh.
He was gone within weeks, soon to be followed by new PM Liz Truss.
Whilst that experience demonstrates the fragility of the modern politician in an age of global finance and information, there are key differences between the two scenarios.
The infamous Truss mini-budget took commentators and markets by surprise. The new government was ill-prepared and didn’t allow for independent cost analysis in the way we have become accustomed to in ‘full’ budgets.
Thus, a bad story ran out of control. That is highly unlikely in this scenario, as the government and media have been building up to this bad news for months. It might even go down better than expected.
The Truss government was also hampered by a bitterly divided Conservative Party, which had just removed Boris Johnson.
She had just defeated the former chancellor, Rishi Sunak, who let his disapproval become obvious.
An underlying crisis already existed in the pension industry, which further exacerbated the situation.
Although betting apps price it at 4/6 about 2026, it makes vastly more appeal than 2025 for Reeves’ exit date.
2027 (12/1) is also not a bad option.
McFadden Strong Favourite To Succeed
As for who succeeds Reeves, the market is totally dominated by Labour figures, illustrating the confident expectation that she won’t last a full parliamentary term and will be succeeded by someone from a different party.
Pat McFadden is the hot favourite at Evens with Ladbrokes, and understandably so.
A Labour stalwart, McFadden served in the government prior to 2010 and held various economic roles in opposition before assuming two key positions in the Starmer administration.
As chancellor of the duchy of Lancaster, he was across the full spectrum of government business, and he is now the work and pensions secretary.
His closest rivals are Torsten Bell at 7/2 and Darren Jones at 7/1 (both with Ladbrokes).
Both are strong long-term prospects at the very least. Bell is an economist who previously headed an influential think-tank before being elected in 2024.
Jones is chief secretary to the treasury - a traditional route to becoming chancellor. It's 6/1 that Jones becomes PM by 2050.
They are clearly the best-qualified trio to succeed Reeves, assuming the position becomes vacant.
McFadden deserves favouritism because he has a deeper relationship and understanding with the wider party, and is seen as a ‘safe pair of hands’.
Jones may be too closely associated with Reeves, as effectively her deputy.
One could make a case for bigger-priced alternatives, in the event that the next chancellor is not appointed by Starmer, but his successor, in a reset.
Rising star Peter Kyle (also earmarked last month as big-odds value to be the next Labour leader) could come into the argument at 25/1.
However, the candidate would surely need an economic background to establish credibility, and the business secretary didn’t until landing that job.
Indeed, few, if any, alternatives really meet that criterion. In this scenario, Bell would be better-placed, but all things considered, McFadden is the obvious pick.
What are your thoughts on the political betting odds above? Let us know in the comments below!
