Epsom Derby Betting Tips: Preview, Best Odds & Analysis For 2023
Derby Betting Tips:
With Epsom Derby betting odds headed by a horse who was beaten 22 lengths on his last start, it feels like a no-brainer to look further down the list for better-value options.
The dilemma on this occasion is that the favourite is trained by Aidan O’Brien, who has won the Derby at Epsom more times than any other trainer in history.
O’Brien has also eulogised over Auguste Rodin on several occasions, steering anyone that will listen in the general direction of this being one of the best horses that has ever been trained at Ballydoyle.
However, Derby favourite backers have had their fingers burned by horse racing betting sites in recent years, so much so that 2022 hero Desert Crown ended a run of six straight defeats for favourites in the blue-riband contest.
And this year’s renewal looks as deep as ever, with a host of horses priced at double-figure odds that have a genuine shot at the top prize.
Another big field looks set to go to post, so luck in-running is once again likely to play its part in the outcome of the £1.5m showpiece.
And then there is the draw, which is always a major factor in big-field races on the round course at Epsom.
A low draw (1-3) is often a significant hindrance on a horse’s chance in the Derby because the field tends to move to the outside of the course after around a furlong, as they negotiate a right-hand turn.
Adayar finally ended the Stall 1 hoodoo in 2021 but he’s the only winner to come out of a stall lower than seven in the last decade and four of the last six winners have come from a double-figure stall, including 2022 winner Desert Crown (12).
Why Is Auguste Rodin Favourite?
Unlike most of his rivals (not all), Auguste Rodin is already a Group 1 winner having ended his two-year-old season with a runaway success in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster.
He is clearly held in the highest regard by connections and let’s face it, they know what they are talking about.
A mile in the 2,000 Guineas was always going to be on the short side but ground conditions shouldn’t have been an issue given he proved he handled slow ground last year.
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Struggling a long way out, the 13/8 favourite never looked happy in the Rowley Mile contest and although he suffered some slight interference early on, his overall performance has to be filed in the ‘bitterly disappointing’ drawer.
So, the dilemma for punters now is, do they give him another chance? He is clearly miles better than he showed in the Guineas and he should relish the Derby trip.
When he was trading at around 6/1 a couple of weeks ago, the case was easier to make, but at odds of around 11/4 now, it feels prudent to look elsewhere. He might well win, but there are better value bets to be had in this race.
The Dante Stakes is always one of the most informative trials for the Derby and although this year’s York race was a messy affair, it did throw up some very interesting performances.
The Foxes came out on top on the day but it’s easy enough to argue that he’ll struggle to confirm that form with at least a couple of his rivals, not least Passenger and White Birch.
Passenger was undoubtedly the eyecatcher of the Dante and although his pedigree doesn’t scream that he’ll stay a mile and a half well, it’s surely significant that connections have chosen to fork out the not insignificant amount of £85,000 to supplement him for the race.
White Birch is arguably more interesting because he looks a really strong stayer and can be backed to win the Derby at almost three times the price of Passenger.
White Birch took a while to warm up in the Dante but he was motoring late on and was ultimately only beaten a neck by The Foxes. The extra two furlongs at Epsom will play right into his hands and it’s a little surprising to see him trading at 16/1 on UK betting sites.
The horse that shaped best with an eye to Epsom in the 2,000 Guineas was probably Dubai Mile, who appears to have gone under many people’s radar.
Dubai Mile was ultimately beaten just over five lengths by Chaldean but the way he stuck to his task through the closing stages suggests he’ll do much better over the longer trip.
It’s also worth remembering that Dubai Mile has already beaten the hugely impressive Chester winner Arrest when the pair filled the first two places in last season’s Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud.
Arrest was such an impressive winner of the Chester Vase that he’s bound to be popular, especially with Frankie Dettori up, and he’s less than half the price of Dubai Mile.
Best Of The Rest
The Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes doesn’t have the prestige of a race like the Dante but it has proved a good source of Derby winners in the past.
Indeed, nine horses have gone on to Epsom glory having won the Lingfield Listed contest, most recently Anthony Van Dyck in 2019.
2021 Derby winner Aayar finished second at Lingfield and the same owners are now bidding to win the Derby with Military Order, who has now won both starts this term in authoritative fashion and he’s proved he can handle a sharp left-handed track.
His form looks solid and he’s unlikely to be far away, but at 4/1, he’s not been missed in the market.
Sprewel is more interesting from a value point of view because he’s a 10/1 shot on betting apps despite having bolted up in the Leopardstown Derby Trial last month.
The son of Churchill doesn’t have a stamina-laden pedigree on paper but the way he powered clear through the final furlong of that Group 3 contest suggests he’ll have no bother with the mile and a half at Epsom.
The issue with him is ground because all of his runs have come on soft or heavy ground. It will be much quicker at Epsom.
Derby Betting Verdict
Auguste Rodin’s position at the head of affairs arguably makes this a great betting race for punters because there are a number of really good options at double-figure odds.
With ground conditions a potential issue for Sprewel, the value plays are White Birch and Dubai Mile, who both ran big races in defeat last time.
White Birch might actually turn into a St Leger horse for Joseph O’Brien but providing he can hold his position early and not get caught in traffic, it’s easy enough to see him finishing his race as well as anything.
Dubai Mile will likely be ridden more forward and we know he’s a class act because he’s already won at Group 1 level. He won’t be easy to pass in the straight and has a real chance of providing Charlie Johnston with a Derby winner in his first season as a trainer, which would be quite a story.
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