US Midterm Election Odds 2026: Democrats Backed To Take Control Of Congress
The Democrats will regain majority control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterms but may struggle to flip the Senate, according to betting sites.
The Republicans hold majorities in both chambers of Congress, which gives president Donald Trump far greater freedom to fulfil his policy objectives.
However, the GOP hold only very slim majorities in both the House and Senate, leaving them at risk of losing power to the Dems at the 2026 midterm elections.
Bookmakers are scouring the polls state by state, trying to figure out which seats are flippable and which are safe before November 2026.
There’s still a long way until the midterm elections but candidates from both parties are already campaigning – and voters are ready to express their views.
Indeed, the 2026 US midterms are likely to become an acid test of Trump’s performance as president to date.
He has a negative approval rating and voters usually turn against the current administration in the midterms.
But the Democrats are by no means poised to flip Congress. Political betting sites have set up their odds for the midterms and there’s still everything to play for.
US Midterms 2026 Odds
The latest odds from William Hill on the House of Representatives point to a Democrat majority. At 1/8, the bookmaker reckons there is an 88.9% chance of the Dems flipping the lower chamber.
However, the Senate is a different matter. We’re still waiting for Senate betting odds to drop but it’s likely that the GOP will have the edge here, even if it’s a narrow advantage of around 4/5 with betting apps.
That’s because the Senate appears a far tougher chamber for the Dems to flip. In fact, they face a bigger challenge than in 2024 to secure a majority.
The reason for this is not all Senate seats are up for grabs next year, whereas all 435 House seats are.
House Of Representatives Betting
America’s House of Representatives is made up of 435 seats, which each represent a Congressional District of around 700,000 people. Practically all seats are won by either the Democrats or Republicans.
The House passes legislative bills up to the Senate and has particular powers over fiscal bills and impeachment proceedings.
A sitting president needs a House majority to operate successfully. Often, presidents lose the House in the second half of their four-year term and struggle to get major policies through Congress.
In 2026, the Dems look on course to win a majority in the lower chamber. Just 218 seats are needed for a majority.
Polling data suggests the Dems will likely earn around 205 seats and the Republicans 208, with the remaining 22 considered toss-ups.
Republicans Juan Ciscomani (AZ-6), Gabe Evans (CO-8) and Ryan Mackenzie (PA-7) face a difficult road to re-election. Democrats Don Davis (NC-1), Jared Golden (ME-19) and even Marcy Kaptur – an Ohioan representative since 1983 – could struggle this time around.
The bookies have gone big on the Dems with the expectation that voters turn their backs on Trump in 2026.
This shines a light on why Trump is pushing so hard in his first year as a returning US president to shape America in his image. He knows time may already be running out.
Senate Betting
While the latest Senate odds are yet to drop, it’s clear from polling data that the Democrats aren’t about to moonwalk to a majority.
Only 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs in 2026. The Republicans already hold a 53-47 majority. While 23 Republican seats and just 12 Democrat seats are being contested next year, the Dems aren’t guaranteed to hold all their seats.
And so, a four-seat swing for a majority suddenly looks a little harder.
Democrats will have to defend new battleground seats in Minnesota, New Hampshire and Michigan. Meanwhile, most GOP-held seats – like Texas and Iowa – are beyond the reach of Democratic candidates.
Polling data suggests 11 Republican seats and six Democrat seats are up for grabs in 2026. Only one GOP seat – Thom Tillis in North Carolina – is considered a genuine toss-up.
The Dems have work to do. They’ll look to unseat Maine moderate Susan Collins but will have to defend New Hampshire, Illinois and Minnesota, where Democratic incumbents aren’t running.
Winning 16 seats overall isn’t going to be easy, which is why the bookies are likely to give the Republicans the edge here.
How Will 2026 Midterms Affect Trump?
Trump is already looking at candidates for the 2026 US midterms in an effort to shore up power across both chambers. It’s likely the Republicans will lose control of the House – but that’s not too much of an issue so long as the GOP retain the Senate.
Why? Because Trump is likely to be wary of Democratic plots to impeach him, once they have power.
Trump was twice impeached and found not guilty during his first presidential term. Ladbrokes currently thinks there is a 50% chance at Evens that he’ll be impeached again before 2029.
Democrats can impeach him in the House but would need a two-thirds majority in the Senate to find Trump guilty.
The numbers don’t add up here. Unless the Dems win a staggering Senate swing next year, Trump will likely have enough GOP senators on his side to dodge being fired.
But a House Democrat majority will still harm Trump’s legislative plans, which is why he’s pushing his agenda so far right now.
A Democrat House and Republican Senate isn’t a terrible outcome for the president, who will then set his sights on his replacement for the 2028 US election.
