No Deal Brexit Odds Flip As Johnson Sweats On 2021 Deadline
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The UK looks on course to leave the EU without a trade agreement once Brexit is complete on January 1, 2021.
Negotiations over the UK’s future relationship with its European partners has been going on since the transition period began in January.
But the two sides appear no closer to settling on some key issues surrounding trade, immigration, fisheries and state aid.
Ever since Boris Johnson’s July 31 deadline was missed, the chances of No Deal emerging at the end of the year has increased week-on-week.
And this has caused the UK politics betting odds to flip over the summer — with little sign of a switch any time soon.
Brexit Odds Switch To No Deal
The latest Brexit betting markets show No Deal is now the most likely outcome of trade talks, with odds of 8/15 with online bookmakers. That’s an implied probability of 65%.
A Deal is priced at 6/5, which is a remarkable turnaround from the 7/12 odds on a trade agreement being reached that were available in late July.
What’s more, it appears as though the UK is actively coming round to the idea of No Deal – and are considering how to champion the best of a bad situation.
No Deal Preparations
There are claims No 10 isn’t worried about the complications of No Deal because of this year’s experience with coronavirus.
It has been suggested that while the EU considers the UK government to be in a chaotic mess over trade talks, the prime minster is happy to go along with No Deal because any economic cost can be blamed on Covid-19, rather than a lack of a trade deal.
The macho stand-off between negotiation camps therefore hasn’t budged for months – and in fact it’s worsening.
What’s more, the UK’s chief negotiator Lord Frost is putting up a staunch defence of leaving with No Deal unless the country has autonomy over state aid.
The EU is determined to tie the UK to historic pledges not to subsidise one’s own industries in order to gain advantage over fellow EU states.
Lord Frost, it appears, is willing to recommend a No Deal Brexit over aligning with the EU on this key issue.
Next Round Of Brexit Talks
More concerns for negotiations centre around fisheries, with the UK adamant it will not maintain the current status quo on shared control of territorial fishing waters.
The next round of Brexit talks are scheduled for September 7, where the EU will hope to pin the UK down to a commitment on state aid and work out a fisheries solution.
However, backbench Conservative MPs – many of whom won their seats in the 2019 election thanks to Johnson’s ‘Get Brexit Done’ campaign – are happy to see No Deal come to fruition.
And that could well be enough to ensure no agreement is ever reached.
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