Best Bets to Make on July 14 MLB Games

Best Bets to Make on July 14 MLB Games
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Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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Interleague Best Bet

Cincinnati Reds +175 at New York Yankees -185

7:05 p.m. ET

The Yankees are 6-5 in July, but because they are averaging a -215 favorite, they have cost their backers losses that have produced a -20% ROI. 

This is a great example of why significant favorites should be avoided as betting opportunities. 

Favorites that have dominated opponents by 100 or more runs in June and by 150 or more runs in July have not done well. 

The Yankees are overvalued in the betting markets, and I like the Reds’ chances in today’s game using the +1.5 Run Line as a solid betting opportunity.

The Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Reds.

  • The Reds are 9-1 on the run line when facing an AL team batting .255 or worse this season.
  • The Yankees are a money-losing 5-15 when facing a struggling bullpen with an ERA of 5.20 or worse over the past two seasons.

I am going to the window to bet the Reds using the +1.5 run line at BetMGM.

 

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American League Best Bet

Seattle Mariners +110 at Texas Rangers -120

8:05 p.m. ET

The Seattle Mariners have won 10 consecutive games. But in this game, the situations point me to a bet on the Texas Rangers and starting pitcher Martin Perez. 

Road teams that have won 10 or more consecutive games and have a record that is not more than nine games over .500 are 10-15 for a –20% ROI dating to the 2004 season.

The Betting Angle of the Day

The following betting angle has produced a 160-55 record for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

The requirements are:

  • Betting on home favorites
  • Our favorite is taking on an opponent batting no better than .260 on the season.
  • The dog is coming off a game where three or fewer combined runs were scored.

Trends and Angles

For his career, Perez is 8-5 in 23 starts with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.532 WHIP when facing the Mariners. 

He is also 12-2 this season in games with a total between seven and 8.5 runs.

I will bet on the Rangers at -125 on the moneyline at BetMGM

 

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Quick Pitches

These are the player prop bets to consider today.

  1. Bet the Angels’ Mike Trout to hit a home run at +450 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
  2. Bet the Astros’ Frambler Valdez Over 6.5 strikeouts at +105 at BetMGM.
  3. Bet Boston’s J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 hits at +190 at BetMGM.

 

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