Major League Baseball Betting Analysis and Predictions: American League Central

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Major League Baseball Betting Analysis and Predictions: American League Central
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One of the MLB additions this season is Cleveland’s name change to the Guardians. Will the new name, logo and outlook translate into a team you should spend your MLB betting money on?

Status Update for the Cleveland Guardians

I wish I had more for fans of the Guardians other than their updated and rather uninteresting logo and color scheme that lacks any sort of creativity.

The franchise has been successful in recent years, with last season‘s 80-82 finish the first losing record since 2012. It was a good 10 years, with the franchise coming within a single game of winning their first World Series since 1948.

The Guardians are a money-ball penny-pinching group, like the Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays. The ownership has been supportive, but hasn’t been willing to spend like some big market teams.

Although it’s likely they won’t end the World Series drought this season, do not be surprised if they outperform the current market expectations.

Regular Season Wins Line

The betting markets are projecting 76.5 wins total for the Guardians, posted at the BetMGM Sportsbook.

This line implies Cleveland will finish the season at 75-87 overall regular-season record.

My predictive machine learning models see them winning at least 76 games and with a 74% probability of posting an even 81-81 record. So, I like the Over 76.5 wins futures bet.

Can Jose Ramirez Carry This Team in 2022?

Jose Ramirez is entering his 10th MLB season and coming off an All-Star season, finishing sixth in the MVP voting.

In 636 plate appearances and 552 at-bats, he hit .266 with a .893 OPS, with 36 home runs, 103 RBI, and 111 runs scored.

He finished sixth in MLB in runs scored, seventh with 27 stolen bases, and seventh in Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

These statistics and rankings would have been even better had there been more men on base and if there was a formidable batter protecting him in the lineup.

I like getting +2500 for Ramirez to win the American League MVP.

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John Ryan

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