MLB Betting Advice for July 12

MLB Betting Advice for July 12
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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American League Best Bet

Chicago White Sox –115 at Cleveland Guardians +105

7:10 p.m. ET

The Guardians are favored with a price of -165 on the moneyline as Shane Bieber starts for the first game that starts at 1:10 p.m. ET. 

The focus here is on the second game, which features Chicago’s Dylan Cease against left-hander Konnor Pilkington set to start for the Guardians. The line for this game has the White Sox favored at -160 on the moneyline and I like the underdog Guardians at +150.

The Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Guardians.

  • The Guardians are 16-4 in home games facing an AL foe that is allowing 4.4 or more runs per game this season.
  • The Guardians are 21-13 when facing a starter with solid control allowing 1.75 or fewer walks per start this season.
  • The White Sox are 15-24 following a seven-game span in which their bullpen allowed an average of 2.33 or more runs per game this season.

I will bet on the Guardians in the second game using the moneyline at the BetMGM sportsbook.

 

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National League Best Bet

Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays

7:07 p.m. ET

The Philadelphia Phillies will be without four important players for this two-game series at Toronto. 

Third baseman Alec Bohm and starting pitchers Aaron Nola, who pitched Tuesday, and Kyle Gibson have been placed on the restricted list for the series because they did not meet Canada’s COVID-19 vaccine requirements. 

Bohm dislocated his ring finger when he recently attempted to slide headfirst into second base and probably would not have been available anyway. Catcher J.T. Realmuto is taking two days off to prepare for the four-game series against the NL East rival Miami Marlins this weekend.

The Blue Jays, who plan to start Kevin Gausman, have fallen into the abyss, having lost nine of their last 10 games.

The Betting Angle of the Day

This betting angle has produced exceptional results.

  • Bet on home favorites in an interleague matchup.
  • Our underdog is priced between 125 and 175 on the moneyline.
  • Our road dog is starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.75 and 4.99 for the season.

I will bet on the Blue Jays on the moneyline boxed with Gausman at DraftKings.

 

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Quick Pitches

These are the player prop bets to consider today.

  1. Bet Boston’s Chris Sale Over 4.5 strikeouts at -135 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
  2. Bet the Cardinals’ Matthew Liberatore Over 3.5 strikeouts at +110 at DraftKings.
  3. Bet Boston’s J.D. Martinez to hit a home run at +450 at DraftKings.
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