MLB Double Play: Betting Advice on National and American League Games, April 12
Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
These are legitimate bets that come from the predictive models I have developed over 27 years.
National League Best Bet
New York Mets +140 at Philadelphia Phillies -150
This is the second game of a three-game series with the Phillies coming from behind with five runs in the eighth inning for a 5-4 win on Monday.
Zack Wheeler is pitching for Philadelphia tonight. He had a great season in 2021, with 32 starts and a career-high of 213 ⅓ innings. He had an impressive 10.4 strikeouts per 9 innings ratio, 5.37 strikeouts-to-walks ratio and a career-low ERA of 2.78.
He was an All-Star, finished second in Cy Young balloting, and was 19th in MVP voting, won by his teammate, right-fielder Bryce Harper.
The Mets, who are starting right-handed Tylor Megill, will want to try to get Wheeler’s pitch count up in the early innings. Last season, batters hit just .182 over the first 25 pitches, .198 from pitch 26 through 50, .232 from pitch 51 through 75, .236 from pitch 76 through 100 and .290 from the 100th pitch on.
Wheeler will not throw 100 pitches in his first start of this season, but will push 90 pitches. He is 4-1 in eight career starts against the Mets, posting a solid 2.63 ERA and a 1.006 WHIP.
Bet the Phillies boxed with Wheeler using the the moneyline.
American League Best Bet
Miami Marlins +130 vs. LA Angels -140
The Angels took an easy 6-2 win as -125 moneyline favorites in the first game of this 2-game set against the Marlins on Monday.
Left-handed Jesus Lizard gets the nod for Miami and left-hander Patrick Sandoval starts for the Angels. First pitch is at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Miami is a money-burning 2-16 using the moneyline when facing an American League team sporting an .330 or worse on-base-percentage. It is 1-14 against the moneyline when facing an American League team scoring an average of 4.4 or fewer runs on the season in games played over the last two seasons.
The Angels are 17-9 following a five-game span in which their bullpen posted a 6.50 ERA in games played over the past two seasons.
Bet the Angels to complete the sweep.
These are some other bets and leans I like on today’s schedule.
- The Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin Over 4.5 strikeouts at +120 as offered at Caesars.
- The Giants’ Mike Yastrzemski to hit a home run at +525 at BetMGM.
- Houston’s Chaz McCormick to hit a home run at +460 at FanDuel.
- Seattle’s Matt Brash Under 2.5 Earned Runs at +110 as offered at BetMGM.
- Phillies Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 earned runs allowed at -150 as offered at BetMGM.
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