MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Aug. 29
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a couple of MLB games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets, or moneyline bets on other games.
National League Best Bet
Philadelphia Phillies -170 at Arizona Diamondbacks +160
9:40 p.m. ET
The Phillies' 5-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday ended a six-game winning. They will continue a 22-game stretch against losing teams when they open a three-game series against the Diamondbacks today in Phoenix.
The Phillies have a 2.5-game lead over the San Diego Padres, who own the third National League wild-card berth.
So, if they can win the next series against these losing record teams will greatly improve their chances of making the postseason for the first time in 11 seasons.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Phillies in this matchup.
- The Phillies are 22-11, making 14 units on the moneyline, in road games when facing an NL foe with a team batting average of .250 or lower this season.
- Phillies starter Ranger Suarez is 9-2, making eight units on the moneyline, in road starts this season.
- Phillies interim manager Rob Thomson is 26-6, making 18 units on the moneyline, when facing an NL foe with a .390 or lower slugging percentage.
I am betting the Phillies on the moneyline at -170 boxed with Suarez as offered at BetMGM.
Interleague Best Bet
Chicago Cubs +205 at Toronto Blue Jays -225
7:07 p.m. ET
The Blue Jays were swept by the L.A. Angels over the weekend and were shut out in the first two games of that series. Despite having an extremely disappointing season, the Angels rank second in baseball behind the New York Mets with 16 shutout wins this season.
Toronto currently owns the third and final AL wild-card berth, but the Baltimore Orioles and Minnesota Twins are 1.5 and 3.0 games behind them, respectively.
The following situational betting angle uses the run line and supports the Chicago Cubs.
- The Blue Jays are 18-29, losing 14 units on the run line, when facing a team with a losing record this season.
- The Blue Jays are 20-37, losing 23 units on the run line, when the run line has been priced between +135 and -190 this season.
- The Cubs manager David Ross is 16-4, making 11 units on the run line following a game in which his team allowed nine or more runs.
I am going to bet the Cubs on the +1.5-run line at -105 as offered at DraftKings.
Quick Pitches
These are the Player Prop Bets to consider today.
- Bet the Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin Under 2.5 earned runs allowed -185 as offered at DraftKings.
- Bet the Red Sox’ J.D. Martinez to record an RBI +150 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Phillies’ Alec Bohm to hit a home run +560 at FanDuel.
In the last 54 player prop picks, I have a 28-26 record, making $247 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,235 per $100 wager.
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