MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 28

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 28

Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

National League Best Bet

Miami Marlins +180 at New York Mets -190

7:05 p.m. ET

The Mets (97-58) and Braves are tied for first in the NL East. Any team, not just the Mets, would feel the pressure right now as they do everything possible to win the NL Division race. 

There is so much more involved, though, as the team, who wins the NL East will get a first-round bye for having the second-best record in the NL. The rest time gained for the winning team is monumental for their aspirations to win the NLCS and, ultimately, the World Series.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Marlins using the moneyline in this matchup.

  • The Mets starter Taijuan Walker is 5-12, losing 11 units, when facing a team that strands an average of seven or fewer runners on base in the second half of the last two seasons.
  • The Mets are 50-55, losing 26 units on the moneyline, when facing a left-handed starter in games played over the last two seasons.
  • The Mets are 53-57, losing 32 units on the moneyline, when facing a team that is batting .245 or worse on the season in each of the last two seasons.

I am betting the Marlins using the moneyline at +180 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

American League Best Bet

Baltimore Orioles +100 at Boston Red Sox -110

7:10 p.m. ET

The Orioles are 3.5-games behind the Seattle Mariners for the third AL wild-card berth with eight games remaining. 

Even though it's unlikely the Orioles would overcome that deficit this late in the season, they still have had a successful season that will carry over into next year.

Baltimore is 3-4 this season at Fenway Park and would have to win the next two games to record its first winning season at Fenway since 2017.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angles support a bet on the Orioles.

  • Orioles starter Dean Kremer is 12-4, making 12 units on the moneyline, when facing a team batting .260 or worse this season.
  • Kremer is 10-2, making 10 units on the moneyline, when facing a team that averages three or fewer walks per game this season.
  • The Red Sox are 18-39, losing 19 units on the moneyline, when facing a team with a winning record in the second half of this season.

I am going to the window betting the Orioles +100 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

Quick Pitches

Here are some prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

  • Bet the Braves' Jake Odorizzi Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -170 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Phillies' Rhys Hoskins to get a hit -200 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Phillies' Alec Bohm to hit a home run +630 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the A’s Sean Murphy to get 2+ hits +250 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Padres' Joe Musgrove Under 2.5 earned runs allowed -160 at DraftKings.

In the past 136 prop bet picks, I have a 59-77 record, making a profit of $347.20 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,736 per $100 wager. The results over more than four months have produced a 55% return on investment (ROI).

 

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