NASCAR Cup Series 2022 Analysis and Futures Bets Worth Making
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Kyle Larson recorded one of the most dominant seasons in NASCAR history en route to the Cup Series title last year, winning 10 races to secure his first championship.
Larson’s memorable season marked the first time since Jimmie Johnson in 2007 that a driver recorded double-digit victories. It was also the first time since Jeff Gordon in 2001 that a driver led more than 2,300 laps. Larson also won three straight races twice in one season, a feat that had not been done since Dale Earnhardt in 1987.
Larson ranged anywhere from +2500 to +1200 to win the title last season. Given the dominance he showed in his first year at Hendrick Motorsports, it’s no surprise he’s the overwhelming favorite to win this season’s championship at +360 on DraftKings Sportsbook. He’s down as low as +270 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
If Larson can repeat, he will be the first to do so since Johnson won five straight championships from 2006-10. The new playoff format that started in 2014 doesn’t allow for much margin of error and decides a champion in the final race of the season.
The key for all the teams this season will be how quickly they can adapt to the new Gen 7 car. This is the first season with a new car and regulations that were built to create more parity throughout the field.
Here are some NASCAR futures worth targeting this season.
Kyle Busch to win it all +950
Perhaps a new car and rule reset could favor Busch, who won just three times in the last two years. His 59 Cup wins are the most among active drivers and he has shown the ability to win in any type of car, becoming the record holder for wins in both the NASCAR Xfinity Series (102) and NASCAR Camping World Truck Series (61).
The 670 horsepower package at the intermediate tracks should give Busch an advantage. The range in power could allow more talented drivers such as Busch to separate themselves compared to the 550 horsepower package that was used from 2019-21.
Busch has also done well with new iterations of each car. When the Car of Tomorrow debuted in 2007 at Bristol, he took home the checkered flag before winning eight races the next year in the car’s first full season.
In 2013 with the Gen 6 car, Busch won four races and wound up with his best points finish at the time.
Compared to the other favorites on the board, I’d feel confident backing Busch at +950.
Busch’s over 2.5 season wins prop is also worth a look at -185 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chase Elliott Over 3.5 Season Wins (-120)
Elliott was one of the most consistent finishers last season, recording 15 top fives and 21 top 10s. Despite running near the top regularly, he only managed two wins last season – both on road courses, at Road America and Circuit of the Americas.
Road courses are where Elliott has been historically strong, winning six of the last 12 road races since 2019. His road history is perfect with this prop since there are six road races on the schedule this season. Even if Elliott can’t maintain the 50% win percentage in those races, I’d expect him positive regression on ovals this season. Last year and his first two full seasons, in 2016 and 2017, are the only years in which he didn’t win on an oval.
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