Best Bets For The Boston-Miami NBA Series Opener
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Scoring is dropping during the NBA playoffs.
That might become even more evident in the two conference finals matchups this week, starting with Tuesday’s game between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat.
Tipoff for this Eastern Conference showdown is at 8:30 p.m. ET at FTX Arena in Miami.
The Western Conference Finals begin Wednesday in San Francisco between the Golden State Warriors and visiting Dallas Mavericks.
Under Bettors Push Point Total Down
The point total for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between Boston and Miami opened at 206.5 points.
That total saw a wave of Under bettors forcing the line to dip lower to the current price of 203.5 points, as offered at the DraftKings and BetMGM sportsbooks.
Despite the line movement to a lower figure, I like betting the Under in Game 1 at 203.5 points. I like the Under if it remains above 200 points.
My predictive models are looking for both teams to shoot 45% or lower in Game 1.
Miami has posted a 17-1 Under record, for 94% winners, in games played in the second half of the regular season and playoffs when the team shoots 45% or lower. This is in games played over the last three seasons.
Using the same model, the Celtics have posted a 23-4 Under record, for 85% winning bets, over the last three seasons.
Tuesday’s Injury Report
As for injuries, most of the major players appear ready to suit up on Tuesday.
While some players are listed as questionable, including Boston’s Marcus Smart (foot), only one player for either team, Miami’s Kyle Lowry (hamstring), has been ruled out for the series opener, according to ESPN.
Pizza Money Prop Best Bets for Tuesday
1. I like betting Miami’s Jimmy Butler, pictured, to record a Triple Double, at +1250 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
2. I like betting Boston’s Al Horford Under 13.5 points + assists, as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.
3. I like betting Boston’s Jayson Tatum Under 32.5 points + assists, as offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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