Even With the Injuries, Expect Big Points in 76ers vs. Heat Game 1

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Even With the Injuries, Expect Big Points in 76ers vs. Heat Game 1
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We give you NBA betting for tonight's playoff games. Read on before you make your wagers.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat

Can the 76ers Overcome the Embiid Loss?

Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler, who missed Game 5 of the first-round series win against the Atlanta Hawks with a nagging knee injury, will likely return at home to face the Sixers on tonight’s Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Tip is 7:30 p.m. ET

Tyler Herro has been dealing with a non-COVID illness and is expected back and Kyle Lowry continues to battle a significant hamstring injury and has been ruled out for the top-seeded Heat.

Philadelphia will be without big man Joel Embiid, who was hammered with a flagrant elbow late in the Game 5 win against Toronto.  The shot to the eye socket caused significant damage and includes a concussion.

Do the 76ers Have a Shooter’s Shot at a Game 1 Upset?

The Heat’s defense is designed to protect the rim and the paint and hasn’t been so good against the perimeter.

Sixers coach Doc Rivers will go to a small starting lineup. Tyreese Maxy and James Harden at the guard positions and Tobias Harris, Danny Green and possibly Georges Niang at the post.

Defensive specialist Matisse Thybulle, Shake Milton, and Paul Reed will al see additional minutes. So, flood the floor with perimeter players, move the ball from side to side to find the open shooter and have a cutter going to the rim if the Heat overplay the shot taker for a quick bounce pass and layup score.

The Analytics Support the Over

The Heat is 25-13 Over when facing teams that are allowing 108 or fewer points per game this season.

They are 41-15-1 Over when playing their second game in the past seven days. 

They are 15-5 Over in games with the total points of 200 to 209.5 over the past three seasons.

They are 15-4-1 Over in home games following back-to-back games in which they allowed 105 or fewer points in each game spanning the past three seasons.

With that, I am taking the Over.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns

The betting markets opened with the Phoenix Suns priced as a six-point home favorite in this Western Conference series.

Surprisingly, the action has been more on the Mavericks and has forced the line to dip to 5.5 points.

The total opened at 212.5 points and the Over has been getting most of the action, forcing the market to 215.5 points.

Of the bets placed, 62% of the tickets have been on the Over, but 65% of the money has been on the Under and this reflects the larger bettors and sharps are bettiung the Under.

The Analytics Support the Under Bet

The Mavericks are 28-16 Under when playing against a team with a winning record this season. 

They are 39-19 Under when facing good 3-point shooting teams that are making at least 36% of those attempts in games played over the past two seasons.

They are 18-4 Under when facing elite shooting teams making 48% of all shot attempts in games played over the past two seasons.

They are 35-19 Under when facing an opponent that is outscoring their opponents by at least three points per game in the past two seasons.

What Does the Betting System Predict?

This betting system has produced above average action on a 285-198 record for 59% winning bets over the past five seasons of regular season and playoffs. 

The requirements are to bet on the Under in games that has a total of at least 210 points, a team, in this case, Dallas, is playing just its fourth game of the past 10 days, has won 60% or more of their games in the current season and facing an opponent that also has won at least 60% of their games.

With this info, I’m taking the Under in this game.

The Player Prop Best Bets

Here are some other bets I like tonight: 

Philadelphia’ sDanny Green Over 11.5 points and assists receiving +110 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook

Philadelphia’s James Harden to post a triple-double at +570 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook

Dallas team total Under 103.5 at –110 as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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