NBA Picks: Bet the Warriors in Showdown Against Mavericks

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NBA Picks: Bet the Warriors in Showdown Against Mavericks
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To help with your NBA betting, here are our picks for tonight's games. We'll start with our prop bet picks, then to our game picks.

Prop Bets to Consider Today

FanDuel -105 Warriors Draymond Green Over 8.5 points
DraftKings +135 Warriors Stephen Curry Over 4.5 made 3-pointers
BetRivers -120 Trail Blazers Jusef Nurkic Over 27.5 points, rebounds, assists
FanDuel -104 Knicks RJ Barrett Over 20.5 points
DraftKings -105 Knicks Mitchell Robinson Over 11.5 points and assists

The player prop bets are 56-47 making $675.50 for the season wagering $50 per prop. 

Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks

7:30 EDT Tip-Off 

Line: Mavericks –1   Total: 226.5 points 

I am betting on the Warriors -1-points at DraftKings Sportsbook and is a valid bet up to and including –3.5 points tonight 

The reigning World Champion Warriors (11-10 SU, 9-12 against the spread) and the Mavericks (9-10, 4-14-1 ATS) meet for the first time since last year’s Western Conference Finals. These franchises are perennial playoff teams, but they are off to sluggish starts this season. In a counterintuitive twist, The Warriors might be the best opponent for the Mavericks to face and end their current four-game losing streak. 

This matchup will be nationally televised and features the two top scorers in the Mavericks’ Luka Doncic (33.1 PPG) and the Warriors’ Stephen Curry (31.4 PPG). In last year’s finals, Doncic averaged 32 PPG and outplayed Current, who averaged 24 PPG, but Curry had a monumentally better supporting cast and that story continues this season too. Curry is averaging more than six points less than his season-scoring average during their current three-game win streak. Klay Thomson has found his shooting stroke averaging 20 PPG and Andrew Wiggins is contributing 23 PPG over this stretch. 

The following situational trends and angles from my predictive model support a best bet on the Warriors.

  • The Mavericks are a league-worst 3-11 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 23 or more assists per game in games played this season.
  • The Mavericks are 0-9 ATS in home games having lost five or more of their last seven games in games played over the past three seasons.
  • The Mavericks are 5-12-1 ATS in home games following three straight games shooting 47% or better from the field in games played over the past five seasons.

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John Ryan

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