NBA Picks: How the Rockets can Push the Clippers Tonight

NBA Picks: How the Rockets can Push the Clippers Tonight
© USA Today

To help with your NBA betting, here are our picks for tonight's games. We'll start with our prop bet picks, then to our game picks.

Prop Bet Picks for Today's Games
 

Sportsbook Odds Prop Bet
Caesars -115 Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmp Over 45.5 points and rebounds
FanDuel -104 Kings’ De’Aaron Fox Over 25.5 points
DraftKings +300 Timberwolves’ D’Angelo Russell to record a double-double
PointsBet -120 Rockets’ Kevin Porter, Jr. Under 31.5 points, assists, and rebounds
Unibet -114 Hawks’ Trae Young Under 28.5 points

The Highest Percentage Team Situational Angles on the Card

  • The Nets are 19-19 SU (50%) and 6-31-1 ATS (16%) as a home favorite over the past two seasons. That supports a lean on the Indiana Pacers.
  • The Pistons are 0-13 SU and 0-12-1 ATS following a double-digit home win and it favors a lean to bet on the Bucks.
  • The Grizzlies are 16-3 SU and ATS (84%) when coming off a road loss over the past two seasons.

 

Game Pick

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers

10:30 p.m. ET

Line: Clippers -10 | Total: 224 points

Bet the Under 224 or more points at BetMGM.

A line favoring the Clippers by 10 points with a total of 224 points implies a 117-107 Clippers win.

Early betting action is seeing about 64% of tickets bet choosing the Under and this trend may gain some steam which will cause the line to dip lower. 

So, if you like the Under, betting it sooner rather than later is the preferred strategy.

The Predictive Models Support a Bet on the Under

My predictive models expect the Rockets to score 105 or fewer points and to shoot less than 42% from the field. In past road games in which the Rockets met or underperformed these performance measures has led to a 44-3-1 Under record, good for 83% winning Under bets over the past five seasons. 

Similarly, when the Clippers defense has met or exceeded these performance projections, the Under in their home games has produced a 39-8-1 Under mark, good for 83% Under bets over the past five seasons.

Situational Trends and Angles

  • The Clippers are 28-11 Under when facing a team that is allowing 46% or greater shooting in games played over the past two seasons.
  • The Clippers are 12-3 Under coming off an upset loss in games played over the past two seasons.
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