Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament Betting Advice and Analysis
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Only No.1 seed Duke is a lock to move to the NCAA tournament. From Nov. 22 to Feb. 28, the Blue Devils were the only ACC Top 25 team.
The ACC’s decline in overall conference rating has lent itself to an increase in the number of potential bubble teams that are now trying to earn their way into the tournament. What would a March Madness be without the ACC?
The first team out of the NCAA Tournament, based on my predictive models, is Wake Forest, and I see them as the most motivated team in this Tournament.
Early Matchups
The Boston College Eagles, seeded 13, defeated the 12 seed Pittsburgh Panthers and now advance to the second round of action to face the No.5-seed Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest cannot lose this game to Boston College and have a shot at the tournament. With a win, it will advance to the quarterfinals to be held Thursday and will face the No.4-seed Miami Hurricanes, who are on a two-game bye.
This matchup will see the winner take a significant step away from my Bubble watch list and most assuredly get their ticket to the tournament. The loser could be going to the NIT tournament.
On the other side of the bracket, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are the No.2 seed. They await the winner of the Clemson vs. Virginia Tech matchup being held Wednesday.
Even at No. 2 in the ACC, they will probably not be seeded higher than a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Based on my power rankings Notre Dame is the fifth-best team in the ACC. Duke is far and away the best team in this conference and will be favored by at least seven points in each of their games.
The Sleepers to Bet On
The No. 6 seed Virginia Cavaliers under coach Tony Bennet need to appear in the conference final to secure a bid to the NCAA Tournament.
The Cavaliers await the winner of the Louisville vs. Georgia Tech matchup and will be a likely double-digit favorite in that matchup.
A win gets them a date with the No. 4 seed North Carolina Tarheels, who booked their trip to the Tournament with their tremendous win over Duke in the regular-season finale.
Betting the Moneyline vs. Futures
In a potential North Carolina vs. Virginia matchup, North Carolina will be favored by about five or six points.
So, with Virginia installed as an underdog, using the moneyline in each of those games will pay off far more than playing the futures alone.
The Cavaliers are lined at +1700 to win the tournament. So, a $100 wager on them would return $1,700 in winnings, plus the original $100, for a total of $1,800. By using the moneyline in each of their games, you will end up winning a whole lot more than $1,800.
The moneyline strategy is to bet $100 on Virginia if they meet North Carolina and the moneyline will be in the vicinity of +200. Place $100 wager on the Cavaliers, and should they come away with the win, you will get a $200 profit.
Next game will be the semifinals and Virginia might be as high as +400 on the money line. So, take half of the profit from the first game and add your usual $100 wager for a total of $250 using the moneyline. Even if they lose in the semifinals, you will still make a $50 profit. If you bet the futures and Virginia does not win the tournament you lose $100.
I am betting Virginia to win the ACC Tournament.
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