Army vs. Navy 2022: The Bet to Make for This Year's Game
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The playoff field is set. Conference champions have been crowned. The only thing yet to decide this college football betting season is the outcome between rivals Army and Navy.
The 123rd matchup will take place at Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field at 3 p.m. on Saturday and will be televised by CBS.
Army has flipped the series rivalry. After losing 14 straight from 2002-15, Army has won four of the last six.
With Army-Navy being the only college football game played at this time of the season, it has consistently generated a high handle. Last year, the game recorded a higher handle that day than the NBA, college basketball, NHL and UFC.
This year, Navy is a -2.5-point favorite at FanDuel and -137 on the moneyline.
Army is +114, while the Over-Under is at 32.5.
Here’s a betting breakdown of this year’s Army-Navy matchup.
Army Bounced Back After Slow Start
The Black Knights have recovered after starting 1-4 to win four of their last six games. Army boasts the second-best rushing offense in the nation, averaging 304.4 yards per game. The triple-option attack is averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
Quarterback Tyhier Tyler is the team’s top rusher, averaging five yards per attempt on 120 carries for 601 yards and 12 rushing scores. Tyler also has thrown for 301 yards and three touchdowns.
Army uses numerous backs to split the carries, but Tyson Riley (93-435), Jakobi Buchanan (82-337) and Jemel Jones (72-326) lead the way.
The Black Knights nearly recorded two signature wins, falling 13-7 to Air Force (9-3) in Week 8 and missing a 42-yard field goal that would have upset No. 24 Troy (11-2), losing 10-9.
Defensively, Army has allowed just 47 points in its last four games.
Navy Also Better in Season's Second Half
Navy also got off to a slow start, losing three of its first four games and lost starting quarterback Tai Lavatai in October. But similar to Army, the team has come on down the stretch.
Navy hung with No. 20 Notre Dame in Week 10 before losing 35-32 and then upset No. 17 UCF 17-13 a week later.
Navy’s lead runner is Daba Fofana, who has a team-high 749 rushing yards (4.3). Quarterback Xavier Arline has 274 yards and three scores since coming in relief of Lavatai, and it’s typically either Arline or Fofana who receives the ball in Navy’s offense.
Defensively is where the Midshipmen have shined. Navy has the fourth-best rushing defense in the country, allowing just 85.6 yards a game on 3.1 yards per attempt. They rank 20th defensively in sacks with 20 and have forced 11 fumbles.
The unit is led by John Marshall, who has 88 tackles, 10.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception. Marshall’s 10.5 sacks are the fifth-most in the country, and 2.5 more than Alabama’s Will Anderson.
Army-Navy Betting Pick: Under 32.5
Because of the run-oriented triple-option of Air Force, Army and Navy, and each team’s familiarity with stopping it, points have been at a premium when these schools meet up. The Under in service academy games has gone 43-9-1 since 2005 for a 82.1% win rate. It has also hit in the last 14 Army-Navy contests.
The trend has remained strong this year for both teams. In each of Army’s and Navy’s losses to Air Force, the under hit, with just 20 points in Army’s loss and 23 in Navy’s defeat to the Falcons.
With both teams continuing to pound the ball and drain the clock with long drives, there isn’t enough to want to go away from backing this trend. Army has converted on 45.8% of third-down conversions, the 25th-best rate in the country, which could lead to long, sustained drives.
Navy’s stingy defense can potentially limit Army’s scoring opportunities. Navy is also unlikely to divert from its run-based attack. In the win over UCF, the team attempted just one pass.
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