College Football Homestretch Features Best Bet Opportunities

College Football Homestretch Features Best Bet Opportunities
© USA Today

Three of the top four teams in the college football playoff rankings had narrow escapes from losses in week 12. 

The TCU Horned Frogs won on the last play of the game in a chaotic situation as they brought in the field goal unit with just seconds remaining and no timeouts. The field goal attempt was dead center between the uprights, and TCU went on to a 29-28 win but failed to cover as two-point road favorites over the Baylor Bears.

The Ohio State Buckeyes were trailing 13-10 to the Maryland Terrapins and had to hold on in the second half for a 43-30 win as a 26-point favorite.

The Michigan Wolverines experienced the greatest threat to suffering a loss, as Illinois had them on the ropes, leading 17-10 entering the 4th quarter. Michigan outscored Illinois 9-0 and earned the last-second 19-17 win but failed to cover the spread as 17 1/2-point home favorites

Only the Georgia Bulldogs, who led 16-0 at the end of the third quarter, were not threatened with a loss. They defeated Kentucky 16-6, but like the other teams mentioned here, failed to cover the spread as 21 1/2-point favorites.

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Favorites Continue to Win

In week 12, favorites of 17.5 or more points went 16-2 SU (89%) and 9-9 ATS (50%), including an even 9-9 (50%) Over-Under record. 

Since 2017, road favorites of at least 17.5 points that are coming off an ATS loss of between one and 7.5 points have earned a 37-6 SU (86%) record, 26-17 ATS (61%) record and 21-20-1 Over-Under (51%) record. 

This situational angle targets a bet on the Utah Utes, priced as 29-point favorites in their road game against the Colorado Buffalos on Saturday.

Did Ranked Teams Dominate in Week 10?

Ranked teams playing at home in Week 12 went 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS and 7-5 on the Over-Under. 

Over the past five weeks, ranked teams playing at home went 38-15 SU (72%) and 34-18-1 ATS (65%), including a 26-26-1 Over-Under result. 

Betting Alerts on Ranked Teams in Week 13

For the season, home ranked teams taking on a ranked opponent have gone 26-14 SU (65%), 23-16-1 ATS (59%) and 19-21 Over-Under.

Since 2017, home teams that were ranked higher in the polls than the ranked opponent have gone 86-19 SU (82%), 57-43-5 ATS (57%) and 41-64 (39%) Over-Under.

This simple database search targets North Carolina as a 6 1/2-points favorite over North Carolina State, Ohio State minus 7 1/2-points over Michigan and USC minus five points over Notre Dame.

Best Bets

The following betting algorithm is active on three teams in Week 13 and has earned a 47-59 record (44%), 65-40-1 (62%) ATS and 47-57-2 (45%) Over-Under. 

Bet home dogs off one or more straight-up wins. The favorite has won three or more consecutive games in straight-up fashion. 

This sports betting algorithm makes the Washington State Cougars a preferred betting opportunity as 1.5-point favorites against their in-state rival, the Washington Huskies, on Saturday.

If you agree with the research, the preferred betting strategy is to bet 50% of your normal bet size now on Washington State and see how the money flows impact the price throughout the week.

If the price becomes cheaper, making Washington State a favorite of 2.5 points or more, then add the remaining 50%. If the price has moved against us, then look to get an in-game bet that is at least 3.5 points cheaper than the closing line for the remaining 50% amount.

Thank you for reading this NCAA College Football article for Week 13, and be sure to follow and checkout the Gambling.com timeline for quick-hitting best-bet opportunities across all sports that feature highly profitable situational betting systems that are yours to keep and bet forever.

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